17:10 Chepstow

DragonBet Welsh Racing Festival 9-11th October Handicap

7f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 10 runners · £3,454 · Friday, 29 May 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 4th

1st
Northcliff (IRE)
Gina Mangan·Thomas Faulkner
5/1·6.00
SP
2nd
Connie's Rose (GB)
Rossa Ryan·Grace Harris·beaten 0.3 lengths
9/2·5.50
SP
3rd
Too Much Trevor (GB)
Olivia Tubb·Grace Harris·beaten 1.25 lengths
5/1·6.00
SP

Race time

1m 22.68s+3.08s vs std

Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.

In-running (Northcliff (IRE))

“Dwelt start - took keen hold - in rear - headway 2f out - ridden and ran on inside final furlong - led towards finish”

AI top-rated King Of The Dance (score 60.5) finished 4th.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 6.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Romanovich

Fifth on slower-than-ideal ground over C&D last week, ROMANOVICH (nap) benefits from Ashley Lewis's useful 5lb claim today.

Forecast 11/4 Too Much Trevor, 7/2 Connie's Rose, 9/2 Romanovich, 7/1 King Of The Dance, 10/1 Ajrad, 12/1 Forever My Prince, Vape, 14/1 Redredrobin, 20/1 Northcliff, Oviedo

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

King Of The Dance

David Probert · Bernard Llewellyn · 7yo

Top-rated of 10

score 60.5 · +5.8 clear of next best (54.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100small sample (n=1)
Bernard Llewellyn: 1/1 winners last 14d (100%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
100very strong
25d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
52average
Last 6: 4-5-2-4-3-4
Ratings50% weight
40below average
OR 52 · RPR 77 · TS 52

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Chepstow 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 1.06

Mid (5–7)

IV 0.95

High (8–10)

IV 0.98

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 108 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	3	Northcliff J: Gina Mangan · T: Thomas Faulkner · draw 9 6yo · G · chp	00008	9-08	64	73	86	34.0	5/1·6.00 SP
2	4	Connie's Rose J: Rossa Ryan · T: Grace Harris · draw 6 7yo · M · btp	56563	9-07	63	80	66	40.4	9/2·5.50 SP
3	10	Too Much Trevor J: Olivia Tubb(5) · T: Grace Harris · draw 7 5yo · G · b	44652	8-04	46	80	71	41.3	5/1·6.00 SP
4	8	King Of The Dance J: David Probert · T: Bernard Llewellyn · draw 4 7yo · G · bp	452434	8-10	52	77	52	60.5	13/2·7.50 SP
5	2	Forever My Prince J: Charles Bishop · T: Michael Blake · draw 10 4yo · G · b	81556	9-08	64	78	43	37.5	12/1·13.00 SP
6	6	Ajrad J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Rod Millman · draw 8 8yo · G · chp	79865	9-01	57	80	23	31.6	13/2·7.50 SP
7	7	Romanovich J: Ashley Lewis(5) · T: John O'Shea · draw 2 7yo · G · grb	951635	9-00	56	81	64	54.7	4/1F·5.00 SP
8	1	Redredrobin J: Ben Ffrench Davis(5) · T: Malcolm Saunders · draw 1 9yo · M · b	62596	9-09	65	76	59	35.9	22/1·23.00 SP
9	9	Oviedo J: Sean D Bowen · T: Alexandra Dunn · draw 5 6yo · G · bpFT P	09009	8-10	52	69	48	35.8	16/1·17.00 SP
10	5	Vape J: Charlie Tucker(7) · T: John & Rhys Flint · draw 3 9yo · G · grp	21120	9-06	62	73	52	37.1	28/1·29.00 SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 17:10 Chepstow on 29 May 2026?

Northcliff (IRE) won the 17:10 Chepstow at SP 6.00. Ridden by Gina Mangan. Trained by Thomas Faulkner.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 17:10 Chepstow?

No — the AI top pick (King Of The Dance) finished 4.

What were the placings in the 17:10 Chepstow?

Top finishers: 1. Northcliff (IRE) (6.00), 2. Connie's Rose (GB) (5.50), 3. Too Much Trevor (GB) (6.00).

What was the winning time for the 17:10 Chepstow?

The winning time was 1m 22.68s, 3.08s slower than standard.

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