Who won the 16:38 Chester on 30 May 2026?
Folk Pageant (GB) won the 16:38 Chester at SP 3.75. Ridden by Hector Crouch. Trained by Charlie Johnston.
16:38 Chester
General Elliot Croft Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
1m2½f · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 10 runners · £7,731 · Saturday, 30 May 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 11/4F·3.75Race report
- 1stFolk Pageant (GB)AI top pick · 57.6Hector Crouch·Charlie Johnston11/4F·3.75SP
- 2ndCrockham Heath (GB)Oisin Murphy·Andrew Balding·beaten 1 length4/1·5.00SP
- 3rdHome Hero (IRE)Jason Hart·Hugo Palmer·beaten 3 lengths4/1·5.00SP
Race time
2m 13.75s+6.05s vs std
Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.
In-running (Folk Pageant (GB))
“Soon in touch with leaders - headway over 2f out - jockey dropped rein inside final furlong - ridden to lead inside final 110yds - kept on well”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.75 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Bemersyde
Newmarket winner Folk Pageant is respected. Preference, though, is for eye-catching handicap debutants BEMERSYDE and Home Hero.
Forecast 3/1 Folk Pageant, 5/1 Mayaada, Crockham Heath, 7/1 Bemersyde, 15/2 Home Hero, 8/1 Timber Twelve, 9/1 Blue Noon, 11/1 Knowledge, 14/1 Gatehouse, 18/1 Advance Twentyfive, 66/1 Carwyn
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Folk Pageant
Hector Crouch · Charlie Johnston · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 57.6 · +1.4 clear of next best (56.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong14d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight70strongLast 6: 2-1-9-1
- Ratings50% weight56averageOR 74 · RPR 93 · TS 87 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight28weakCharlie Johnston: 5/45 winners last 14d (11%)
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Chester 1m2½f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.23).
Low (1–4)
IV 1.23
Mid (5–8)
IV 0.97
High (9–11)
IV 0.76
Today: Folk Pageant (draw 3) and Mayaada (draw 4) get the bias; Blue Noon (draw 9) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 48 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | J: Hector Crouch · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 3 3yo · F · b | 2191 | 74 | 57.6 | 11/4F·3.75 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding · draw 5 3yo · C · b | 0115 | 80 | 54.6 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 3 | 10 | J: Jason Hart · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 2 3yo · G · ch | 644 | 72 | 43.4 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam · draw 11 3yo · C · b | 436 | 80 | 46.8 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Billy Loughnane · T: Michael Bell · draw 7 3yo · G · b | 114 | 82 | 51.8 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 6 | 8 | J: Alec Voikhansky · T: Richard Hannon · draw 9 3yo · F · b | 443 | 77 | 52.8 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 7 | 1 | J: David Nolan · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 6 3yo · G · b | 29560 | 82 | 43.6 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 8 | 4 | J: Harry Davies · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 10 3yo · G · b | 15 | 81 | 49.7 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 9 | 11 | J: Barry McHugh · T: Patrick Morris · draw 1 3yo · G · b | 96989 | 69 | 31.8 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 10 | 7 | J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 4 3yo · F · b | 07921 | 78 | 53.1 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Cieren Fallon · T: S Woods · draw 8 3yo · G · b | 2114 | 81 | 56.3 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:38 Chester?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Folk Pageant, won the race (AI score 57.6).
What were the placings in the 16:38 Chester?
Top finishers: 1. Folk Pageant (GB) (3.75), 2. Crockham Heath (GB) (5.00), 3. Home Hero (IRE) (5.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:38 Chester?
The winning time was 2m 13.75s, 6.05s slower than standard.
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