Who won the 18:50 Ffos Las on 4 June 2026?
Real Trouble (IRE) won the 18:50 Ffos Las at SP 4.50. Ridden by Kieran Shoemark. Trained by Archie Watson.
18:50 Ffos Las
Llanelli Mind Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
7½f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Soft · 5 runners · £6,480 · Thursday, 4 June 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stReal Trouble (IRE)Kieran Shoemark·Archie Watson7/2·4.50SP
- 2ndPersian Land (IRE)AI top pick · 56.3Jack Dace·David Evans·beaten 0.3 lengths7/4·2.75SP
- 3rdGalipi (IRE)Jason Watson·Charles Hills·beaten 1.75 lengths6/5F·2.20SP
Race time
1m 39.13s+12.33s vs std
Markedly slow — strong soft ground or a deeply tactical race.
In-running (Real Trouble (IRE))
“Set steady pace - shaken up and quickened 2f out - clear 1f out - reduced lead inside final 110yds - always doing enough”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.75 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Real Trouble
The two newcomers need checking in the betting but experience may count and REAL TROUBLE shaped with sufficient promise at Newcastle.
Forecast 4/5 Persian Land, 11/4 Real Trouble, 6/1 Galipi, 8/1 Another Encore, 33/1 Le Ciel Noble, 40/1 Alfey Moon
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Persian Land
Jack Dace(5) · David Evans · 2yo
Top-rated of 5
score 56.3 · +10.8 clear of next best (45.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Form20% weight100very strongLast 6: 1
- Freshness10% weight100very strong14d since last run (race-fit window)
- Trainer20% weight60averageDavid Evans: 4/17 winners last 14d (24%)
- Ratings50% weight29weakRPR 65 · TS 21
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ffos Las 7½f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 0.91
Mid (4–5)
IV 1.08
High (6–7)
IV 1.03
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 56 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Archie Watson · draw 3 2yo · G · b | 5 | — | 45.5 | 7/2·4.50 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: Jack Dace(5) · T: David Evans · draw 6 2yo · G · b | 1 | — | 56.3 | 7/4·2.75 SP |
| 3 | 4 | J: Jason Watson · T: Charles Hills · draw 5 2yo · C · b | — | — | 21.5 | 6/5F·2.20 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Pat Cosgrave · T: David Evans · draw 7 2yo · C · ch | 0 | — | 37.7 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 5 | 5 | J: J F Egan · T: David Evans · draw 2 2yo · G · b | 6 | — | 32.7 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| — | — | J: George Wood · T: Harry Charlton · draw 1 2yo · C · b | — | — | 31.5 | — |
| — | — | J: NON-RUNNER · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt · draw 4 2yo · G · b | 2 | — | 34.1 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:50 Ffos Las?
No — the AI top pick (Persian Land) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 18:50 Ffos Las?
Top finishers: 1. Real Trouble (IRE) (4.50), 2. Persian Land (IRE) (2.75), 3. Galipi (IRE) (2.20).
What was the winning time for the 18:50 Ffos Las?
The winning time was 1m 39.13s, 12.33s slower than standard.
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