15:30 Newbury

Ardonagh Group Handicap

7f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Soft · 15 runners · £14,174 · Thursday, 11 June 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 7th

1st
Forty Years On (IRE)
Hector Crouch·George Scott
5/2F·3.50
SP
2nd
Brian (IRE)
David Probert·J S Moore·beaten 3 lengths
10/1·11.00
SP
3rd
Best Rate (GB)
Pat Dobbs·Richard Hannon·beaten 0.2 lengths
25/1·26.00
SP

Race time

1m 25.68s+2.88s vs std

Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.

AI top-rated Consecrated (score 63.2) finished 7th.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 14.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Why the model rates this top

Consecrated

Tom Marquand · William Haggas · 4yo

Top-rated of 15

score 63.2 · +1.5 clear of next best (61.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
19d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
88very strong
William Haggas: 9/26 winners last 14d (35%)
Ratings50% weight
61average
OR 91 — highest combined rating in the field
Form20% weight
27weak
Last 6: 4-6-3-7-7

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newbury 7f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–6)

IV 0.99

Mid (7–11)

IV 1.16

High (12–16)

IV 0.86

Today: Consecrated (draw 7) and Morte Point (draw 8) get the bias; Chalk Mountain (draw 16) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 147 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	5	Forty Years On J: Hector Crouch · T: George Scott · draw 13 4yo · F · b	31112	9-07	88	—	—	58.8	5/2F·3.50 SP
2	3	Brian J: David Probert · T: J S Moore · draw 11 4yo · G · b	97087	9-09	90	—	—	40.5	10/1·11.00 SP
3	13	Best Rate J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon · draw 15 4yo · G · b	34464	9-00	81	—	—	53.4	25/1·26.00 SP
4	4	Ata Rangi J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 5 5yo · G · ch	17551	9-08	89	—	—	60.4	5/1·6.00 SP
5	2	Nostrum J: Alistair Rawlinson · T: Michael Appleby · draw 6 6yo · G · b	00002	9-09	90	—	—	47.7	8/1·9.00 SP
6	8	Storm Free J: Oisin Murphy · T: James Tate · draw 1 4yo · G · chpFT P	32160	9-07	88	—	—	53.3	13/2·7.50 SP
7	1	Consecrated J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 7 4yo · F · b	46377	9-10	91	—	—	63.2	14/1·15.00 SP
8	11	Chalk Mountain J: Saffie Osborne · T: Zoe Hawkins · draw 16 6yo · G · grt	74711	9-02	83	—	—	61.7	20/1·21.00 SP
9	7	Morte Point J: Lewis Edmunds · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick · draw 8 4yo · G · bFirst after wind op	11000	9-07	88	—	—	43.3	9/1·10.00 SP
10	10	I Still Have Faith J: Sean Levey · T: Stuart Williams · draw 14 6yo · G · bt	826254	9-04	85	—	—	47.5	15/2·8.50 SP
11	14	City Of Kings J: Charles Bishop · T: Ian Williams · draw 10 6yo · G · b	516	8-13	80	—	—	40.8	100/1·101.00 SP
12	9	I'm Workin On It J: Robert Havlin · T: Rod Millman · draw 3 4yo · G · bp	114412	9-05	86	—	—	58.7	33/1·34.00 SP
13	6	Spangled Mac J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey · draw 2 7yo · G · btp	02300	9-07	88	—	—	45.8	16/1·17.00 SP
14	15	Obsidian Dream J: Rose Dawes(5) · T: J S Moore · draw 4 4yo · G · br	5635	8-06	73	—	—	41.7	66/1·67.00 SP
PU	16	Tanmawwy J: Edward Greatrex · T: Heather Main · draw 9 8yo · G · bh	10529	8-05	72	—	—	41.1	80/1·81.00 SP
—	—	Warm Spell J: Joe Leavy · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 12 5yo · G · b	93380	9-00	81	—	—	40.1	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 15:30 Newbury on 11 June 2026?

Forty Years On (IRE) won the 15:30 Newbury at SP 3.50. Ridden by Hector Crouch. Trained by George Scott.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:30 Newbury?

No — the AI top pick (Consecrated) finished 7.

What were the placings in the 15:30 Newbury?

Top finishers: 1. Forty Years On (IRE) (3.50), 2. Brian (IRE) (11.00), 3. Best Rate (GB) (26.00).

What was the winning time for the 15:30 Newbury?

The winning time was 1m 25.68s, 2.88s slower than standard.

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