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RacingAlpha

Martin Stonemans Lucky Last Handicap

1m6f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 4 runners · £3,402 · Thursday, 25 June 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 9/4·3.25
  1. 1st
    Nymphaea (GB)AI top pick · 48.5
    Marco Ghiani·Jennie Candlish
    9/4·3.25
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Two Plus Two (IRE)
    Pat Cosgrave·Ed de Giles·beaten 0.05 lengths
    6/5F·2.20
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Muhib (GB)
    Shay Farmer·Olly Williams·beaten 8.5 lengths
    15/2·8.50
    SP
Race time
3m 6.50s+8.50s vs std

Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.25 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Two Plus Two

Two Plus Two has won twice in recent starts and ran to a similar level when a close fourth last time at the same mark — first-time blinkers today and he tends to make his own running, conditions that will suit over 14f on fast ground. Nymphaea has been picking up at a modest level but remains winless after many attempts and her ceiling is clear. Muhib is the most consistent of the remainder but is equally exposed. Two Plus Two is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Nymphaea

Marco Ghiani · Jennie Candlish · 4yo

Top-rated of 4
score 48.5 · +6.6 clear of next best (41.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    17d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Trainer20% weight
    60average
    Jennie Candlish: 4/17 winners last 14d (24%)
  • Form20% weight
    52average
    Last 6: 2-9-6-4-3-2
  • Ratings50% weight
    32weak
    OR 48
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Nottingham 1m6f

full course data →

Strong: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.26).

Low (1–2)
IV 0.66
Mid (3–4)
IV 1.14
High (5–5)
IV 1.26

Today: Star Of Jupiter (draw 5) gets the bias; Two Plus Two (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 41 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
13
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Jennie Candlish · draw 4
4yo · F · bp
296432
4848.5
9/4·3.25
SP
21
J: Pat Cosgrave · T: Ed de Giles · draw 2
6yo · G · chb
17414
6041.9
6/5F·2.20
SP
35
J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Olly Williams · draw 3
5yo · G · b
553344
4634.9
15/2·8.50
SP
44
J: Harry Davies · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 5
5yo · G · betb
46256
4632.5
4/1·5.00
SP
J: NON-RUNNER · T: Ben Case · draw 1
7yo · M · chp
07756
5331.6

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 11:00 Nottingham on 25 June 2026?

Nymphaea (GB) won the 11:00 Nottingham at SP 3.25. Ridden by Marco Ghiani. Trained by Jennie Candlish.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 11:00 Nottingham?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Nymphaea, won the race (AI score 48.5).

What were the placings in the 11:00 Nottingham?

Top finishers: 1. Nymphaea (GB) (3.25), 2. Two Plus Two (IRE) (2.20), 3. Muhib (GB) (8.50).

What was the winning time for the 11:00 Nottingham?

The winning time was 3m 6.50s, 8.50s slower than standard.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org