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RacingAlpha

Newcastle Airport Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard To Slow · 7 runners · £5,400 · Thursday, 25 June 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 5/2·3.50
  1. 1st
    Caeruleus (IRE)AI top pick · 56.5
    Oisin Orr·John Butler
    5/2·3.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Cuban Heels (GB)
    Robert Havlin·John & Thady Gosden·beaten 0.3 lengths
    8/15F·1.53
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Sir Sirius (IRE)
    Tom Eaves·Kevin Ryan·beaten 2.75 lengths
    15/2·8.50
    SP
Race time
1m 13.70s+3.00s vs std

Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Cuban Heels

Cuban Heels has built on each start and, dropping into this easier grade at the third attempt, the Havana Grey colt commands strong claims. Caeruleus confirmed his debut level at Carlisle and is a solid second choice with that form subsequently boosted. Sir Sirius makes the shortlist on a speed-bred profile with upward progression to show. Cuban Heels is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Caeruleus

Oisin Orr · John Butler · 2yo

Top-rated of 7
score 56.5 · +4.5 clear of next best (52.0)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    17d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    55average
    Last 6: 4-3
  • Trainer20% weight
    53average
    John Butler: 4/19 winners last 14d (21%)
  • Ratings50% weight
    50average
    OR 75
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 6f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)
IV 1.02
Mid (4–5)
IV 0.88
High (6–7)
IV 1.09

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
11
J: Oisin Orr · T: John Butler · draw 5
2yo · C · b
43
7556.5
5/2·3.50
SP
22
2yo · C · ch
34
8152.0
8/15F·1.53
SP
36
J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 7
2yo · C · b
96
14.6
15/2·8.50
SP
45
J: Aiden Brookes · T: Micky Hammond · draw 2
2yo · G · b
5
22.5
250/1·251.00
SP
53
J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison · draw 4
2yo · G · b
35
17.5
28/1·29.00
SP
64
J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Roger Fell · draw 6
2yo · C · b
0
18.0
150/1·151.00
SP
77
J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 3
2yo · G · b
15.0
22/1·23.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:37 Newcastle (AW) on 25 June 2026?

Caeruleus (IRE) won the 14:37 Newcastle (AW) at SP 3.50. Ridden by Oisin Orr. Trained by John Butler.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:37 Newcastle (AW)?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Caeruleus, won the race (AI score 56.5).

What were the placings in the 14:37 Newcastle (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Caeruleus (IRE) (3.50), 2. Cuban Heels (GB) (1.53), 3. Sir Sirius (IRE) (8.50).

What was the winning time for the 14:37 Newcastle (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 13.70s, 3.00s slower than standard.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org