Who won the 14:40 Newcastle (AW) on 27 June 2026?
Believitanducan (IRE) won the 14:40 Newcastle (AW) at SP 4.33. Ridden by William Buick. Trained by Alan King.
14:40 Newcastle (AW)
JenningsBet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race For Northumberland Plate) (GBBPlus Race)
2m½f · Flat · Class 2 · Standard To Slow · 20 runners · £38,655 · Saturday, 27 June 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 100/30·4.33Race report
- 1stBelievitanducan (IRE)AI top pick · 76.5William Buick·Alan King100/30·4.33SP
- 2ndHaveyoumissedme (GB)Andrew Mullen·Iain Jardine·beaten 1 length22/1·23.00SP
- 3rdSax Appeal (GB)Daniel Muscutt·Charlie Johnston·beaten 0.05 lengths22/1·23.00SP
Race time
3m 32.90s+2.50s vs std
Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.
In-running (Believitanducan (IRE))
“On the wide outside in touch - driven along from 3f out - went to front over 2f out - edged left over 1f out - kept on strongly inside final furlong”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.33 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Sax Appeal
Sax Appeal tops our ratings in a wide-open staying handicap, returning to conditions that suit at 14-16f with first-time blinkers applied and back on his last winning mark, making him the most appealing option on figures despite being yet to win in recent starts. Alphonse Le Grande is a compelling threat as the course winner from 2024, returning from a break with tongue-tie on, while Haveyoumissedme knows this track well and steps back up to a trip that better suits after looking in need of a stiffer test last time. Believitanducan has been relentlessly progressive across both codes and takes another rise in the weights in stride. Sax Appeal is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Believitanducan
William Buick · Alan King · 5yo
Top-rated of 20
score 76.5 · +11.8 clear of next best (64.6)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight100small sample (n=7)Alan King: 3/7 winners last 14d (43%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Freshness10% weight100very strong28d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight96very strongLast 6: 1-2-1-1
- Ratings50% weight55averageOR 82
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 2m½f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–7)
IV 1.06
Mid (8–14)
IV 0.90
High (15–20)
IV 1.02
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 150 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | J: William Buick · T: Alan King · draw 10 5yo · G · b | 1211 | 82 | 76.5 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| 2 | 18 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 3 8yo · G · b | 35273 | 72 | 54.5 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 3 | 6 | J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 2 6yo · G · bb | 383653 | 86 | 50.3 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 4 | 11 | J: Luke Morris · T: Ian Williams · draw 5 4yo · G · gr | 11446 | 81 | 52.0 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 5 | 3 | J: Sam Coen(5) · T: A J Martin · draw 17 7yo · G · bt | 58700 | 87 | 38.8 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: Rob Hornby · T: Andrew Balding · draw 11 4yo · C · b | 44121 | 87 | 64.6 | 3/1F·4.00 SP |
| 7 | 8 | J: Jack Nicholls(5) · T: Hughie Morrison · draw 8 7yo · G · bt | 22096 | 82 | 62.1 | 80/1·81.00 SP |
| 8 | 16 | J: Adam Caffrey · T: Karl Thornton · draw 1 6yo · G · cht | 55186 | 76 | 42.4 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 9 | 14 | J: Mikey Sheehy · T: Adrian Paul Keatley · draw 9 6yo · G · b | 117152 | 78 | 59.5 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 10 | 7 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Brian Ellison · draw 13 10yo · G · bv | 7080 | 86 | 43.1 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 11 | 1 | J: Mason Paetel(5) · T: James Owen · draw 12 8yo · G · bp | 75027 | 88 | 54.0 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 12 | 17 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 7 4yo · G · b | 481231 | 75 | 54.0 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 13 | 15 | J: Sam James · T: Phillip Makin · draw 15 6yo · G · bp | 21284 | 77 | 53.0 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 14 | 20 | J: N G McCullagh · T: A J Martin · draw 19 5yo · G · b | 3060 | 70 | 32.2 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 15 | 12 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Dianne Sayer · draw 6 7yo · G · b | 21207 | 80 | 44.5 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 16 | 10 | J: Ray Dawson · T: Jessica Bedi · draw 4 5yo · G · bt | 14036 | 81 | 38.6 | 100/1·101.00 SP |
| 17 | 19 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Liam Bailey · draw 14 8yo · G · b | 321331 | 71 | 47.9 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 18 | 5 | J: Cieren Fallon · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 18 6yo · G · b | 16040 | 86 | 49.4 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 19 | 2 | J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Jennie Candlish · draw 16 5yo · G · gr | 04849 | 88 | 54.2 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 20 | 13 | J: Dougie Costello · T: Neil King · draw 20 5yo · G · bp | 251111 | 79 | 53.3 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:40 Newcastle (AW)?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Believitanducan, won the race (AI score 76.5).
What were the placings in the 14:40 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Believitanducan (IRE) (4.33), 2. Haveyoumissedme (GB) (23.00), 3. Sax Appeal (GB) (23.00).
What was the winning time for the 14:40 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 3m 32.90s, 2.50s slower than standard.
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