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16:00 Musselburgh

Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap

7f · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 8 runners · £5,234 · Tuesday, 30 June 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 5th
  1. 1st
    Native Instinct (GB)
    Daniel Tudhope·Edward Bethell
    5/2·3.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Diamont Katie (IRE)
    Clifford Lee·K R Burke·beaten 1.25 lengths
    6/1·7.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Abduction (FR)
    Jake Dickson·Jim Goldie·beaten 0.3 lengths
    11/1·12.00
    SP
Race time
1m 25.51s+1.41s vs std

Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.

In-running (Native Instinct (GB))

“Set the pace throughout - driven from 2f out - responded to pressure over 1f out - stretched clear in the final 110 yards - won comfortably”

AI top-rated The Gay Blade (score 62.0) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 7.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Son

Son produced a solid effort at York last time, going within two lengths of the winner off this mark in a performance that matched his best level, and our figures place him comfortably clear of the field. The Gay Blade is in fine form with three straight wins to his name, though the rapidly rising mark is becoming a real test, while Abduction and Iris Dancer are both serious dangers with strong recent form. Son is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

The Gay Blade

Andrew Mullen · Iain Jardine · 7yo

Top-rated of 8
score 62.0 · +2.6 clear of next best (59.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Form20% weight
    86very strong
    Last 6: 1-2-6-1-1-1
  • Trainer20% weight
    70strong
    Iain Jardine: 8/29 winners last 14d (28%)
  • Freshness10% weight
    70strong
    11d since last run (quick turnaround)
  • Ratings50% weight
    47below average
    OR 71
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Musselburgh 7f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.20).

Low (1–3)
IV 0.85
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.97
High (7–8)
IV 1.20

Today: Native Instinct (draw 7) and Ameilya (draw 8) get the bias; The Gay Blade (draw 3) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 126 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
14
Native Instinct
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell · draw 7
4yo · G · b
05626
7344.4
5/2·3.50
SP
23
Diamont Katie
J: Clifford Lee · T: K R Burke · draw 2
4yo · F · b
851234
7448.6
6/1·7.00
SP
32
Abduction
J: Jake Dickson(7) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 5
8yo · G · b
418773
7444.5
11/1·12.00
SP
41
Son
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4
5yo · G · b
22973
8153.2
7/4F·2.75
SP
55
The Gay Blade
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 3
7yo · G · b
126111
7162.0
7/1·8.00
SP
68
Iris Dancer
J: Rowan Scott · T: Tristan Davidson · draw 6
8yo · M · bb
406121
6559.4
12/1·13.00
SP
77
Gressington
J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott · draw 1
5yo · G · grb
006080
6836.7
10/1·11.00
SP
86
Ameilya
J: James Sullivan · T: Stuart Coltherd · draw 8
5yo · M · b
1706
7130.4
150/1·151.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:00 Musselburgh on 30 June 2026?

Native Instinct (GB) won the 16:00 Musselburgh at SP 3.50. Ridden by Daniel Tudhope. Trained by Edward Bethell.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:00 Musselburgh?

No — the AI top pick (The Gay Blade) finished 5.

What were the placings in the 16:00 Musselburgh?

Top finishers: 1. Native Instinct (GB) (3.50), 2. Diamont Katie (IRE) (7.00), 3. Abduction (FR) (12.00).

What was the winning time for the 16:00 Musselburgh?

The winning time was 1m 25.51s, 1.41s slower than standard.

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