Who won the 18:09 Carlisle on 4 July 2026?
Bellasio (IRE) won the 18:09 Carlisle at SP 5.50. Ridden by Laura Pearson. Trained by Grant Tuer.
18:09 Carlisle
Title Sponsor Handicap (For Pro-Am Female Jockeys)
1m1f · Flat · Class 5 · Good · 8 runners · £5,234 · Saturday, 4 July 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 3rdRace report
- 1stBellasio (IRE)Laura Pearson·Grant Tuer9/2·5.50SP
- 2ndFinancer (GB)Miss Amy Collier·Tim Easterby·beaten .5 lengths5/2F·3.50SP
- 3rdMr Lincoln (GB)AI top pick · 57.5Josephine Gordon·Iain Jardine·beaten .75 lengths3/1·4.00SP
Race time
1m 56.88s+2.88s vs std
Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.
In-running (Bellasio (IRE))
“Tracked the front-runner - moved up and took the front over 1f out - battled on inside final furlong”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way57.5/100 rating
Mr Lincoln
8.00SmarketsSBK
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Hostility
This looks competitive from top to bottom, but Hostility edges it as our selection: his need to be dropped out and asked late leaves him open to being outpaced, yet he had more than enough in reserve to win last time, and Joanna Mason keeping the ride again is a plus. Mr Lincoln, in good order recently, should also go well, though this sharper trip is a query for a horse who wants further. Izzari's figures make him hard to leave out if he can rediscover his better form, while Krissy, who has already swapped placings with Hostility, will be around the finish again if allowed to dictate from the front, though she can be erratic. Hostility remains the pick, with Mr Lincoln, Izzari and Krissy the main dangers.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Mr Lincoln
Josephine Gordon · Iain Jardine · 6yo
Top-rated of 9
score 57.5 · +5.7 clear of next best (51.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong15d since last run (race-fit window)
- Trainer20% weight73strongIain Jardine: 8/28 winners last 14d (29%)
- Ratings50% weight50averageOR 75 — highest combined rating in the field
- Form20% weight40below averageLast 6: 2-8-8-6-2
MarketBest price 8.00 (SmarketsSBK) · 5th in the market of 9.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 1m1f
full course data →Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.31).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.31
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.89
High (7–9)
IV 0.75
Today: Krissy (draw 3) and Jewel Maker (draw 2) get the bias; Mr Lincoln (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 52 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | J: Laura Pearson · T: Grant Tuer · draw 8 5yo · G · b | 26552 | 62 | 51.7 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 2 | 3 | J: Miss Amy Collier · T: Tim Easterby · draw 9 5yo · G · bb | 40455 | 72 | 46.5 | 5/2F·3.50 SP |
| 3 | 1 | J: Josephine Gordon · T: Iain Jardine · draw 7 6yo · G · gr | 28862 | 75 | 57.5 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Miss Kayleigh Williams(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 3 5yo · M · b | 211061 | 73 | 47.5 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 5 | 7 | J: Joanna Mason · T: David O'Meara · draw 5 4yo · G · b | 49721 | 65 | 51.4 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 6 | 5 | J: Cara Tuke(5) · T: Iain Jardine · draw 6 5yo · G · b | 64800 | 68 | 49.0 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 7 | 9 | J: Miss Rebecca Burley(5) · T: Tim Easterby · draw 2 11yo · G · b | 90748 | 59 | 42.9 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 8 | 6 | J: Lexie Clarkson(5) · T: Tristan Davidson · draw 4 4yo · F · b | 33405 | 66 | 47.7 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Gina Mangan · T: David Thompson · draw 1 5yo · M · btpFT TP | 5547 | 70 | 37.5 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:09 Carlisle?
No — the AI top pick (Mr Lincoln) finished 3.
What were the placings in the 18:09 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Bellasio (IRE) (5.50), 2. Financer (GB) (3.50), 3. Mr Lincoln (GB) (4.00).
What was the winning time for the 18:09 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 56.88s, 2.88s slower than standard.
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