What time is the Construction Day 14th October Handicap?
The Construction Day 14th October Handicap is off at 21:00 on 4 July 2026 at Nottingham (Great Britain).
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Nottingham
Great BritainConstruction Day 14th October Handicap
Saturday, 4 July 2026
1m2f·Flat·Class 6·Good To Firm·8 runners·£3,402
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Selections by model
Head-to-head dashboard →v1.047.7/100 rating
Holly Mist
5.50SmarketsSBK· informational only
Top-rated, but filter rejects this race
v1.1
No pick
Race outside the segment-edge filter
Each-way47.7/100 rating
Holly Mist
5.50SmarketsSBK
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Racing Alpha pick
Holly Mist
Harry Vigors(5) · Roger Varian · 4yo
47.7/100
+0.4 vs next best (47.3)
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong20d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight45below averageLast 6: 3-3-4-5-5-3
- Ratings50% weight43below averageOR 65 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight35below averageRoger Varian: 3/21 winners last 14d (14%)
MarketBest price 5.50 (SmarketsSBK) — 2nd favourite. AI sees slight value vs consensus.
v1.3 rating · weights and method explained on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Pace map
inferred from last 6 runsShape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.
- Front-runners(1)
- Prominent(1)
- Mid-division(1)
- Hold-up / closers(1)
- Unknown(4)
Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.
Runners
| # | Dr | Horse | Jockey / Trainer | Form | Wt | OR | RPR | TS | AI | Fair | Best price | Add to betslip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 5yo · G · bp | 98367 | 9-09 | 65 | — | — | 36.5 | 13/2·7.40 | 11/2·6.50Bet365 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 4yo · F · grbFT B | 334553 | 9-09 | 65 | — | — | 47.7 | 9/2·5.55 | 4.5·5.50SmarketsSBK | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4yo · G · chv | 42194 | 9-08 | 64 | — | — | 46.3 | 7/2·4.63 | 3/1·4.00Bet365 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5yo · G · bp | 33386 | 9-07 | 63 | — | — | 40.2 | 9/1·10.49+5% vs mkt | 10·11.00SmarketsSBK | ||
| 5 | 6 | 4yo · G · b | 67800 | 9-05 | 61 | — | — | 38.9 | 15/2·8.64 | 15/2·8.50Bet365 | ||
| 6 | 8 | 5yo · G · bp | 221433 | 9-03 | 59 | — | — | 47.3 | 5/1·6.17 | 5·6.00SmarketsSBK | ||
| 7 | 5 | 4yo · F · bt | 80107 | 8-11 | 53 | — | — | 37.8 | 20/1·20.97 | 16/1·17.00Bet365 | ||
| 8 | 1 | 4yo · F · b | 57097 | 8-08 | 50 | — | — | 35.3 | 20/1·20.97 | 16/1·17.00Bet365 |
Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 31 bookmakers per horse with the 23% overround stripped out. A green badge means the best book currently pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.
Frequently asked questions
What is the field size and distance of the 21:00 Nottingham?
1m2f, Class 6, Flat, 8 runners declared.
What is the going for the 21:00 Nottingham?
Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.
What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 21:00 Nottingham?
The AI top-rated runner is Holly Mist (score 47.7, best price 5.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.
Who is the favourite for the 21:00 Nottingham?
The market favourite is Time Turner at a best price of 4.00. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Holly Mist.
Racing Post verdict
Third-partySTIPULATION looks the one to be on, sitting just 2lb above the mark that brought his last win and given his latest effort came only after trouble in running, that form is arguably better than the bare result suggests; today's shorter trip should play to his finishing kick. Danehill Star, who rarely runs a bad race, is the obvious threat on ground that plainly suits him, and Didaar, a confirmed maiden whose mark has fallen sharply, looks capable of better back up in distance. Holly Mist, sporting first-time blinkers, has also franked the form with a couple of good efforts in defeat and, having seemingly not stayed the longer trip last time, could improve back at today's distance. It's a competitive renewal and the vote for STIPULATION is only a narrow one.
Racing Post pick: Stipulation
Editorial verdict from Racing Post via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha.
Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org