Who won the 21:00 Nottingham on 4 July 2026?
Didaar (IRE) won the 21:00 Nottingham at SP 4.50. Ridden by Jake Dickson. Trained by Gihan Arnolda.
21:00 Nottingham
Construction Day 14th October Handicap
1m2f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 8 runners · £3,402 · Saturday, 4 July 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 6thRace report
- 1stDidaar (IRE)Jake Dickson·Gihan Arnolda7/2·4.50SP
- 2ndDanehill Star (IRE)Tom Eaves·Tony Carroll·beaten 1.5 lengths12/1·13.00SP
- 3rdQuirke On Parole (GB)Rhys Elliott·Mark Walford·beaten 2 lengths9/1·10.00SP
Race time
2m 13.50s+6.90s vs std
Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.
AI top-rated Holly Mist (score 47.7) finished 6th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.25 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way47.7/100 rating
Holly Mist
5.50SmarketsSBK
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Stipulation
STIPULATION looks the one to be on, sitting just 2lb above the mark that brought his last win and given his latest effort came only after trouble in running, that form is arguably better than the bare result suggests; today's shorter trip should play to his finishing kick. Danehill Star, who rarely runs a bad race, is the obvious threat on ground that plainly suits him, and Didaar, a confirmed maiden whose mark has fallen sharply, looks capable of better back up in distance. Holly Mist, sporting first-time blinkers, has also franked the form with a couple of good efforts in defeat and, having seemingly not stayed the longer trip last time, could improve back at today's distance. It's a competitive renewal and the vote for STIPULATION is only a narrow one.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Holly Mist
Harry Vigors(5) · Roger Varian · 4yo
Top-rated of 8
score 47.7 · +0.4 clear of next best (47.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong20d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight45below averageLast 6: 3-3-4-5-5-3
- Ratings50% weight43below averageOR 65 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight35below averageRoger Varian: 3/21 winners last 14d (14%)
MarketBest price 5.50 (SmarketsSBK) · 2nd in the market of 8.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Nottingham 1m2f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 0.91
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.99
High (7–8)
IV 1.11
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 196 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | J: Jake Dickson(7) · T: Gihan Arnolda · draw 2 5yo · G · bp | 98367 | 65 | 36.5 | 7/2·4.50 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Tom Eaves · T: Tony Carroll · draw 8 5yo · G · bp | 221433 | 59 | 47.3 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 3 | 8 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Mark Walford · draw 1 4yo · F · b | 57097 | 50 | 35.3 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 4 | 7 | J: Mikey Sheehy · T: Mark Rimell · draw 5 4yo · F · bt | 80107 | 53 | 37.8 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 5 | 3 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Edward Bethell · draw 3 4yo · G · chv | 42194 | 64 | 46.3 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
| 6 | 2 | J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: Roger Varian · draw 7 4yo · F · grbFT B | 334553 | 65 | 47.7 | 9/4F·3.25 SP |
| 7 | 4 | J: Ross Coakley · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 4 5yo · G · bp | 33386 | 63 | 40.2 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 8 | 5 | J: Dylan Hogan · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt · draw 6 4yo · G · b | 67800 | 61 | 38.9 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 21:00 Nottingham?
No — the AI top pick (Holly Mist) finished 6.
What were the placings in the 21:00 Nottingham?
Top finishers: 1. Didaar (IRE) (4.50), 2. Danehill Star (IRE) (13.00), 3. Quirke On Parole (GB) (10.00).
What was the winning time for the 21:00 Nottingham?
The winning time was 2m 13.50s, 6.90s slower than standard.
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