Who won the 14:41 Ayr on 5 July 2026?
Conciliate (IRE) won the 14:41 Ayr at SP 3.25. Ridden by Billy Loughnane. Trained by John Butler.
14:41 Ayr
Ayrshire Magazine Community EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
6f · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 4 runners · £5,400 · Sunday, 5 July 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 9/4·3.25Race report
- 1stConciliate (IRE)AI top pick · 29.0Billy Loughnane·John Butler9/4·3.25SP
- 2ndInstant Force (IRE)Clifford Lee·K R Burke·beaten 0.2 lengths4/9F·1.44SP
- 3rdTrumpety Trump (IRE)Rhys Elliott·Jim Goldie·beaten .5 lengths33/1·34.00SP
Race time
1m 13.15s+4.15s vs std
Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.25 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Influencer Man
Conciliate improved clearly at York last time and that form has since been boosted — he is the standout experience angle in this small field. Instant Force is a well-bred debutant by a high-class sprinter from a yard with a sharp first-time-out record, and Instant Force is closely matched in the ratings. Nevertheless, Influencer Man is by top-class sprinter Starman out of smart sprinter Stormy Clouds, bringing compelling sprint breeding and a stable capable of winning on debut. Influencer Man is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Conciliate
Billy Loughnane · John Butler · 2yo
Top-rated of 4
score 29.0 · +2.5 clear of next best (26.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong22d since last run (race-fit window)
- Trainer20% weight50averageJohn Butler: 3/15 winners last 14d (20%)
- Form20% weight45below averageLast 6: 7-3
- Ratings50% weight0weakno Racing Post ratings on file
MarketBest price 3.70 (Betfair Exchange) · 2nd in the market of 4.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 6f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).
Low (1–2)
IV 1.24
Mid (3–3)
IV 0.98
High (4–4)
IV 0.75
Today: Conciliate (draw 1) and Trumpety Trump (draw 2) get the bias; Instant Force (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 122 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | J: Billy Loughnane · T: John Butler · draw 1 2yo · C · b | 73 | — | 29.0 | 9/4·3.25 SP |
| 2 | 3 | J: Clifford Lee · T: K R Burke · draw 4 2yo · C · b | — | — | 24.0 | 4/9F·1.44 SP |
| 3 | 4 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 2 2yo · C · b | — | — | 21.0 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Mikey Sheehy · T: Adrian Paul Keatley · draw 3 2yo · G · ch | — | — | 26.5 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:41 Ayr?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Conciliate, won the race (AI score 29.0).
What were the placings in the 14:41 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Conciliate (IRE) (3.25), 2. Instant Force (IRE) (1.44), 3. Trumpety Trump (IRE) (34.00).
What was the winning time for the 14:41 Ayr?
The winning time was 1m 13.15s, 4.15s slower than standard.
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