18+ • Bet Responsibly • Racing Alpha does not accept betsBeGambleAware.org
RacingAlpha

16:12 Ascot

Side Glance Story Book Launch Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Flat · Class 2 · Good To Firm · 8 runners · £24,300 · Saturday, 11 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 6th
  1. 1st
    Tryfan (GB)
    Luke Morris·Harry Charlton
    22/1·23.00
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Blue Hercules (IRE)
    Kieran O'Neill·William Muir & Chris Grassick·beaten 0.3 lengths
    18/1·19.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Tycoon (GB)
    David Egan·Kevin Philippart De Foy·beaten 1.25 lengths
    10/3·4.33
    SP
Race time
2m 35.36s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Tryfan (GB))

“pulling hard early and up with the pace - eased into a slender advantage 2f out - driven along over 1f out - faced a challenge for the front in the final 110yds - dug deep to prevail”

AI top-rated Ghaiyya (score 55.9) finished 6th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 6.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →
Each-way55.9/100 rating
Ghaiyya
6.40Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Nightime Dancer

Nightime Dancer is our selection, topping a competitive Class 2 field over today's 12f trip on a clear-cut figure of 109. Tycoon and Nesthorn both rate within a few pounds and look the most obvious dangers, with Ernst Blofeld also capable of running well. Confidence in the selection is low given how tightly this field is rated, but the merit case still favours Nightime Dancer.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Ghaiyya

Jack Mitchell · Charlie Johnston · 4yo

Top-rated of 8
score 55.9 · +0.6 clear of next best (55.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    20d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Ratings50% weight
    61average
    OR 91
  • Form20% weight
    45below average
    Last 6: 7-1-2-4-8
  • Trainer20% weight
    33weak
    Charlie Johnston: 9/67 winners last 14d (13%)
MarketBest price 6.40 (Betfair Exchange) · 4th in the market of 8.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Ascot 1m4f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.18).

Low (1–3)
IV 0.75
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.18
High (7–8)
IV 1.11

Today: Ghaiyya (draw 6) and Blue Hercules (draw 4) get the bias; Nightime Dancer (draw 1) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 78 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
17
Tryfan
J: Luke Morris · T: Harry Charlton · draw 5
5yo · G · bpFT P
39207
7744.3
22/1·23.00
SP
28
Blue Hercules
J: Kieran O'Neill · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick · draw 4
3yo · C · b
8420
8344.4
18/1·19.00
SP
35
Tycoon
J: David Egan · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy · draw 7
4yo · G · b
67530
9449.4
10/3·4.33
SP
42
Nesthorn
J: Benoit de la Sayette · T: George Baker · draw 2
4yo · G · b
17777
9846.8
9/1·10.00
SP
54
Ernst Blofeld
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Hamad Al Jehani · draw 3
4yo · G · b
00417
9650.1
13/8F·2.62
SP
66
Ghaiyya
J: Jack Mitchell · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 6
4yo · F · b/br
71248
9155.9
13/2·7.50
SP
71
Nightime Dancer
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 1
4yo · G · bbFT B
82440
10055.3
4/1·5.00
SP
83
Green Cape
J: David Probert · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 8
4yo · G · bt
14940
9655.2
33/1·34.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:12 Ascot on 11 July 2026?

Tryfan (GB) won the 16:12 Ascot at SP 23.00. Ridden by Luke Morris. Trained by Harry Charlton.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:12 Ascot?

No — the AI top pick (Ghaiyya) finished 6.

What were the placings in the 16:12 Ascot?

Top finishers: 1. Tryfan (GB) (23.00), 2. Blue Hercules (IRE) (19.00), 3. Tycoon (GB) (4.33).

What was the winning time for the 16:12 Ascot?

The winning time was 2m 35.36s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org