18+ • Bet Responsibly • Racing Alpha does not accept betsBeGambleAware.org
RacingAlpha

15:35 York

Feature

Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)

5f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Soft · 18 runners · £340,260 · Friday, 21 August 2026

Compare all prices

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 10 · score 73.9 · +2.1 clear of next best · best 9/2·5.60

Drawn 5, inside the favoured low third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus
20·20.00 Betfair Exchange · +20% vs fair (consensus 16.61)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way73.9/100 rating
Bacio
5.60Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Bacio

Juan J Hernandez · Wesley A Ward · 3yo

Top-rated of 18
score 73.9 · +2.1 clear of next best (71.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Form20% weight
    97very strong
    Last 6: 1-2-1-1-1
  • Ratings50% weight
    76strong
    OR 114 — above field median
  • Freshness10% weight
    65strong
    63d since last run (rusty)
  • Trainer20% weight
    50no sample
    Wesley A Ward — no runners last 14 days — too few recent runs to judge the yard
MarketBest price 5.60 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — York 5f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.37).

Low (1–6)
IV 1.37
Mid (7–12)
IV 0.90
High (13–18)
IV 0.69

Today: Bacio (draw 5) and Night Raider (draw 2) get the bias; Cover Up (draw 15) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 137 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
10
BacioPick
J: Juan J Hernandez · T: Wesley A Ward · draw 5
3yo · C · chDOnly rideOnly runner
12111
11473.911/2·6.395.6·5.60
Betfair Exchange · -12% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
3
J: William Buick · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 15 · combo 0/9 (0%)
6yo · G · btDOnly runner
13801
10971.816/1·16.6120·20.00
Betfair Exchange · +20% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
7
J: P J McDonald · T: Clive Cox · draw 18 · combo 1/10 (10%)
4yo · G · btC&DOnly pairing
78141
10871.533/1·33.2146·46.00
Smarkets · +39% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
11
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien · draw 7 · combo 31/91 (34%)
3yo · G · bD
01117
11571.314/1·14.0511.5·11.50
Betfair Exchange · -18% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
15
J: Mickael Barzalona · T: F-H Graffard · draw 12 · combo 0/8 (0%)
4yo · F · bOnly rideOnly runner
65612
10867.49/2·5.755.7·5.70
Smarkets
All 30 books ▾
13
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell · draw 14 · combo 8/28 (29%)
6yo · M · chtb
615050
10366.7150/1·129.01140·140.00
Matchbook · +9% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
5
J: James Doyle · T: K. R. Burke · draw 2 · combo 4/18 (22%)
5yo · G · br1lb below win markD
01100
11166.216/1·16.6112/1·13.00
10 Bet · -22% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
6
J: Tom Marquand · T: David Loughnane · draw 17
6yo · G · bpC&DOnly runner
713327
10666.066/1·65.1470·70.00
Matchbook · +8% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
16
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Harry Eustace · draw 13
4yo · F · bOnly pairing
58003
10764.828/1·29.3825/1·26.00
Unibet · -11% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
18
2yo · F · bDOnly pairing
32141
10664.314/1·14.0514.5·14.50
Betfair Exchange · +3% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
9
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 10 · combo 14/81 (17%)
5yo · H · b
74604
10663.025/1·26.8228/1·29.00
talkSPORT BET · +8% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
2
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 4 · combo 16/92 (17%)
6yo · G · bDOnly rideOnly runner
02061
11262.610/1·10.869.2·9.20
Betfair Exchange · -15% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
8
J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman · draw 8 · combo 6/56 (11%)
6yo · G · bOn last winning markDOnly runner
02012
11059.318/1·19.1621·21.00
Smarkets · +10% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
4
J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 16 · combo 3/71 (4%)
6yo · G · bbFT B
49035
10755.640/1·43.4335/1·36.00
7Bet · -17% vs fair
All 27 books ▾
17
J: Colin Keane · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 1 · combo 0/5 (0%)
3yo · F · bOnly pairing
56505
10250.1150/1·129.01180·180.00
Smarkets · +40% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
12
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Henry Dwyer · draw 3
8yo · M · btbOnly runner
00794
10849.912/1·12.7713·13.00
Betfair Exchange · +2% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
14
J: Barry McHugh · T: Tracy Waggott · draw 9 · combo 1/9 (11%)
5yo · M · chOnly runner
254260
10449.750/1·52.37110·110.00
Smarkets · +110% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
1
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 6 · combo 4/61 (7%)
4yo · G · bp
07090
10443.9100/1·103.46100·100.00
Betfair Exchange · -3% vs fair
All 29 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–30 bookmakers per horse with the 28% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)?

The Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) is off at 15:35 on 21 August 2026 at York (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:35 York?

5f, Class 1, Flat, 18 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:35 York?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:35 York?

The AI top-rated runner is Bacio (score 73.9, best price 5.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:35 York?

The market favourite is Bacio at a best price of 5.60.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org