Who won the 15:00 Carlisle on 24 June 2026?
Mia Fantasia (IRE) won the 15:00 Carlisle at SP 4.33. Ridden by Oisin Orr. Trained by Hugo Palmer.
15:00 Carlisle
Download The Oddschecker App EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
7f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 11 runners · £5,940 · Wednesday, 24 June 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 10thRace report
- 1stMia Fantasia (IRE)Oisin Orr·Hugo Palmer100/30·4.33SP
- 2ndThe First Drop (GB)Mikey Sheehy·Adrian Paul Keatley·beaten 2.5 lengths25/1·26.00SP
- 3rdRicky Punting (IRE)Jason Hart·Tom Dascombe·beaten 3.25 lengths6/1·7.00SP
Race time
1m 27.49s+2.69s vs std
Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.
In-running (Mia Fantasia (IRE))
“Slow into stride and settled well off the pace - pushed along from early - angled left before halfway - produced a wide run over 1f out - took up the lead inside the final furlong and drew clear”
AI top-rated Be More Ruthless (score 34.0) finished 10th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 33.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Platinum Force
Platinum Force tops our figures and deserves plenty of respect for Michael Bell's yard on debut — a Blackbeard half-brother to a useful 6f performer bought for 50,000 euros at the breeze-ups. Social Spirit holds the strongest form card among those with a run, showing good ability in a stronger 2yo contest at Epsom last time and likely to progress at 7f. Mia Fantasia also deserves respect for her connections on debut, while Mrs Mole showed enough at Leicester to warrant consideration. Platinum Force is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Be More Ruthless
D Fentiman · Adrian Nicholls · 2yo
Top-rated of 11
score 34.0 · +3.5 clear of next best (30.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight95small sample (n=8)Adrian Nicholls: 3/8 winners last 14d (38%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Form20% weight50averageLast 6: first run
- Freshness10% weight50averageno recent-run data
- Ratings50% weight0weakno Racing Post ratings on file
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 7f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–4)
IV 1.00
Mid (5–8)
IV 0.83
High (9–11)
IV 1.16
Today: The First Drop (draw 9) and Mrs Mole (draw 10) get the bias; Ricky Punting (draw 8) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2yo · C · b | — | — | 18.0 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Mikey Sheehy · T: A Keatley · draw 9 2yo · C · b | — | — | 30.5 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 3 | 8 | J: Jason Hart · T: Tom Dascombe · draw 8 2yo · G · bpFT P | 426 | — | 27.7 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: Connor Beasley · T: C Johnston · draw 11 2yo · C · b | — | — | 22.5 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 5 | 11 | J: D Allan · T: T D Easterby · draw 6 2yo · F · ch | 0 | — | 15.5 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: Billy Garritty · T: M & D Easterby · draw 7 2yo · G · b | 35 | — | 24.0 | 5/6F·1.83 SP |
| 7 | 7 | J: Sean Kirrane · T: T D Easterby · draw 4 2yo · C · b | 7 | — | 17.0 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 8 | 3 | J: Callum Rodriguez · T: M L W Bell · draw 3 2yo · C · b | — | — | 19.5 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 9 | 10 | J: C Lee · T: Steph Hollinshead · draw 10 2yo · F · b | 4 | — | 24.5 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 10 | 9 | J: D Fentiman · T: Adrian Nicholls · draw 1 2yo · F · b | — | — | 34.0 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 11 | 2 | J: Faye McManoman · T: L Williamson · draw 5 2yo · G · b | — | — | 15.0 | 250/1·251.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:00 Carlisle?
No — the AI top pick (Be More Ruthless) finished 10.
What were the placings in the 15:00 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Mia Fantasia (IRE) (4.33), 2. The First Drop (GB) (26.00), 3. Ricky Punting (IRE) (7.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:00 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 27.49s, 2.69s slower than standard.
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