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RacingAlpha

16:00 Curragh

IrelandFeature

GAIN Railway Stakes (Group 2)

6f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Firm · 7 runners · €78,000 · Saturday, 18 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 7th
  1. 1st
    Celeron (GB)
    Oisin Murphy·M D O'Callaghan
    7/2·4.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Tribeca (IRE)
    Colin Keane·Robson De Aguiar·beaten 3 lengths
    17/2·9.50
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Confucius (IRE)
    Ryan Moore·A P O'Brien·beaten 1.25 lengths
    11/10F·2.10
    SP
Race time
1m 11.58s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Celeron (GB))

“sat behind the front pack and soon in 3rd pulling hard - driven 2f out - under continued pressure and made further inroads over 1f out - up to 2nd 1f out and soon in front - drifted left in the final 100 yards - driven out to prevail”

AI top-rated Carry The Flag (score 64.5) finished 7th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 6.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Carry The Flag

Carry The Flag is our selection, rated 6 lb clear of Confucius in second and the highest figure in this Curragh six-furlong race. Confucius, Immortal Guard and Tribeca are the chief dangers, with Immortal Guard and Tribeca sharing an identical rating some way below the top two. Confidence is high that the selection's form and figures make him hard to beat.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Carry The Flag

Wayne Lordan · A P O'Brien · 2yo

Top-rated of 7
score 64.5 · +2.3 clear of next best (62.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    14d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    69strong
    Last 6: 2-1-2-9-1
  • Ratings50% weight
    67strong
    OR 101 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Trainer20% weight
    35below average
    A P O'Brien: 5/35 winners last 14d (14%)
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Curragh 6f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.12).

Low (1–3)
IV 1.03
Mid (4–5)
IV 0.84
High (6–7)
IV 1.12

Today: Celeron (draw 6) and Tribeca (draw 7) get the bias; Carry The Flag (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 182 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
12
Celeron
J: Oisin Murphy · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 6
2yo · C · b
10
—21.7
7/2·4.50
SP
27
Tribeca
J: Colin Keane · T: Robson De Aguiar · draw 7
2yo · C · b
10
—16.7
17/2·9.50
SP
33
Confucius
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien · draw 1
2yo · C · br
2163
10162.2
11/10F·2.10
SP
46
The Scallionator
J: Wesley Joyce · T: Michael Mulvany · draw 2
2yo · C · b
4210
9054.0
50/1·51.00
SP
55
Switching Sides
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington · draw 3
2yo · C · baybrown
21
—27.0
12/1·13.00
SP
64
Immortal Guard
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar · draw 5
2yo · C · b
132
10158.8
10/1·11.00
SP
71
Carry The Flag
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien · draw 4
2yo · C · bpFT P
21291
10164.5
6/1·7.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:00 Curragh on 18 July 2026?

Celeron (GB) won the 16:00 Curragh at SP 4.50. Ridden by Oisin Murphy. Trained by M D O'Callaghan.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:00 Curragh?

No — the AI top pick (Carry The Flag) finished 7.

What were the placings in the 16:00 Curragh?

Top finishers: 1. Celeron (GB) (4.50), 2. Tribeca (IRE) (9.50), 3. Confucius (IRE) (2.10).

What was the winning time for the 16:00 Curragh?

The winning time was 1m 11.58s.

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