15:53 Down Royal

Ireland

BOYLE Sports Irish EBF Ulster Oaks Fillies Handicap

1m2½f · Flat · Soft · 9 runners · €19,143 · Saturday, 20 June 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick was a non-runner

1st
Chica Guerrera (IRE)
Ronan Whelan·Mark Fahey
4/1·5.00
SP
2nd
Apercu (IRE)
W J Lee·A Oliver·beaten 6.5 lengths
9/1·10.00
SP
3rd
Lady Lilac (IRE)
Sam Coen·Joseph G Murphy·beaten 1.75 lengths
12/1·13.00
SP

Race time

2m 19.16s+6.76s vs std

Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Why the model rates this top

Liberation Date

Orla Tynan(7) · Jack Foley · 3yo

Top-rated of 9

score 61.8 · +0.7 clear of next best (61.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
27d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
83small sample (n=3)
Jack Foley: 1/3 winners last 14d (33%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Ratings50% weight
55average
OR 83
Form20% weight
38below average
Last 6: 5-3-1-9-6

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Down Royal 1m2½f

full course data →

Sample too small to call at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 0.52

Mid (5–8)

IV 0.98

High (9–12)

IV 1.52

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 27 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	8	Chica Guerrera J: Ronan Whelan · T: Mark Fahey · draw 10 4yo · F · b	30243	9-01	79	—	—	51.7	4/1·5.00 SP
2	2	Apercu J: W J Lee · T: A Oliver · draw 4 6yo · M · bb	75480	9-12	90	—	—	49.8	9/1·10.00 SP
3	3	Lady Lilac J: Sam Coen(5) · T: Joseph G Murphy · draw 11 4yo · F · b	63557	9-10	88	—	—	45.0	12/1·13.00 SP
4	4	Narlita J: Adam Caffrey · T: H Rogers · draw 2 7yo · M · bp	14536	9-04	82	—	—	54.1	16/1·17.00 SP
5	9	Chablis Rock J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 7 3yo · F · bt	0321	9-00	90	—	—	61.1	9/4F·3.25 SP
6	5	Beauparc J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Gerard Keane · draw 9 6yo · M · bt	313472	9-03	81	—	—	48.1	12/1·13.00 SP
7	10	Enchanted Lady J: Nathan Crosse · T: A Oliver · draw 6 4yo · F · b	045	8-09	73	—	—	46.8	33/1·34.00 SP
8	1	Fiver Friday J: Gary Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell · draw 5 6yo · M · b	50314	10-00	92	—	—	53.3	5/2·3.50 SP
PU	7	Thrifty Of Digby J: Scott McCullagh · T: Mrs John Harrington · draw 1 5yo · M · chp	30811	9-02	80	—	—	58.4	16/1·17.00 SP
—	—	Diamond Exchange J: Keithen Kennedy(5) · T: Mrs John Harrington · draw 12 4yo · F · bp	31318	9-03	81	—	—	57.4	—
—	—	Liberation Date J: Orla Tynan(7) · T: Jack Foley · draw 8 3yo · F · b	53196	8-07	83	—	—	61.8	—
—	—	Stars Will Shine J: Chris Hayes · T: Noel Meade · draw 3 3yo · F · ch	3159	8-09	85	—	—	52.8	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 15:53 Down Royal on 20 June 2026?

Chica Guerrera (IRE) won the 15:53 Down Royal at SP 5.00. Ridden by Ronan Whelan. Trained by Mark Fahey.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:53 Down Royal?

No — the AI top pick (Liberation Date) was a non-runner or unplaced.

What were the placings in the 15:53 Down Royal?

Top finishers: 1. Chica Guerrera (IRE) (5.00), 2. Apercu (IRE) (10.00), 3. Lady Lilac (IRE) (13.00).

What was the winning time for the 15:53 Down Royal?

The winning time was 2m 19.16s, 6.76s slower than standard.

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