18+ • Bet Responsibly • Racing Alpha does not accept betsBeGambleAware.org
RacingAlpha

16:30 Ayr

Racing TV Handicap

1m2f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £4,187 · Monday, 13 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 15/8F·2.88
  1. 1st
    Pearl Eye (GB)AI top pick · 51.7
    Paul Mulrennan·Jim Goldie
    15/8F·2.88
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Polygram (GB)
    Jason Hart·Tristan Davidson·beaten .5 lengths
    11/2·6.50
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Spiritoftheblues (GB)
    Daniel Tudhope·David O'Meara·beaten 5.5 lengths
    11/4·3.75
    SP
Race time
2m 6.23s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Pearl Eye (GB))

“settled towards the back - asked to improve position over 2f out - up to second and narrowing the gap over 1f out - into a scrap for the front inside the final furlong - went to the front inside the final 110yds and prevailed”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.88 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Pearl Eye

Pearl Eye heads our figures on a solid recent profile: a win three starts back and two further thirds in the mix across his last five starts, with just a sixth last time out as the blip. He returns only 16 days off that run, already proven over today's distance and going. Spiritoftheblues, runner-up last time out and a winner four starts back, matches Pearl Eye on our figures and is the most obvious threat, while Pol Roger and Polygram both arrive without a win in recent starts but cannot be dismissed on class alone. Our selection is Pearl Eye, the one to beat on current form.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Pearl Eye

Paul Mulrennan · Jim Goldie · 6yo

Top-rated of 5
score 51.7 · +2.3 clear of next best (49.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    16d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    53average
    Last 6: 3-4-1-3-6
  • Ratings50% weight
    49below average
    OR 74 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Trainer20% weight
    33weak
    Jim Goldie: 7/55 winners last 14d (13%)
MarketBest price 3.15 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Ayr 1m2f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.20).

Low (1–2)
IV 0.76
Mid (3–4)
IV 1.06
High (5–5)
IV 1.20

Today: Pol Roger (draw 5) gets the bias; Polygram (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 57 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
11
Pearl Eye
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 3
6yo · G · bp
34136
7451.7
15/8F·2.88
SP
23
Polygram
J: Jason Hart · T: Tristan Davidson · draw 2
4yo · F · gr
776634
6742.5
11/2·6.50
SP
34
Spiritoftheblues
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 4
3yo · F · b
1872
7349.4
11/4·3.75
SP
42
Pol Roger
J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 5
6yo · G · bp
08823
7047.2
3/1·4.00
SP
55
Light The Night Up
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke · draw 1
3yo · F · ro
33445
6541.8
11/1·12.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:30 Ayr on 13 July 2026?

Pearl Eye (GB) won the 16:30 Ayr at SP 2.88. Ridden by Paul Mulrennan. Trained by Jim Goldie.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:30 Ayr?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Pearl Eye, won the race (AI score 51.7).

What were the placings in the 16:30 Ayr?

Top finishers: 1. Pearl Eye (GB) (2.88), 2. Polygram (GB) (6.50), 3. Spiritoftheblues (GB) (3.75).

What was the winning time for the 16:30 Ayr?

The winning time was 2m 6.23s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org