20:45 Kempton (AW)

Tom Farrell Memorial Handicap

2m · Flat · Class 6 · Standard To Slow · 7 runners · £3,140 · Monday, 29 June 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 3rd

1st
Break Point (GB)
Jude Fernandes·Luke Dace
13/2·7.50
SP
2nd
Balgowan (IRE)
George Downing·Seamus Mullins·beaten 0.3 lengths
7/4F·2.75
SP
3rd
Sneaky Blinder (FR)AI top pick · 53.9
Rob Hornby·Robert Stephens·beaten 0.3 lengths
10/1·11.00
SP

Race time

3m 35.52s+9.82s vs std

Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.

In-running (Break Point (GB))

“Tracked leaders - struck the front 4f out - drifted left under pressure inside final furlong - held on gamely”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 10.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Nelson Gate

A two-mile Flat test on the all-weather draws a mixed field of Flat and hurdles types, and the race may go to the most adaptable at the trip. Nelson Gate is an unknown quantity as a Flat stayer but looks relatively unexposed at the distance, and first-time blinkers should help him focus; his mark looks workable on course form and he gets the verdict. Balgowan ran to his level last time on the same official rating he carries today and is the chief danger, while Our Papa Smurf and Break Point also hold realistic claims. Nelson Gate is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Sneaky Blinder

Rob Hornby · Robert Stephens · 5yo

Top-rated of 7

score 53.9 · +12.1 clear of next best (41.8)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100small sample (n=2)
Robert Stephens: 1/2 winners last 14d (50%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
49d since last run (fresh)
Ratings50% weight
38below average
OR 57
Form20% weight
32weak
Last 6: 2-7-1-9-5-7

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Kempton (AW) 2m

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.35).

Low (1–3)

IV 1.35

Mid (4–5)

IV 0.78

High (6–7)

IV 0.82

Today: Sneaky Blinder (draw 3) and Our Papa Smurf (draw 2) get the bias; Nelson Gate (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 69 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	5	Break Point J: Jude Fernandes(7) · T: Luke Dace · draw 4 6yo · G · b	02365	8-11	46	—	—	31.4	13/2·7.50 SP
2	3	Balgowan J: George Downing · T: Seamus Mullins · draw 7 7yo · G · chp	74312	9-07	56	—	—	41.5	7/4F·2.75 SP
3	2	Sneaky Blinder J: Rob Hornby · T: Robert Stephens · draw 3 5yo · G · bp	271957	9-08	57	—	—	53.9	10/1·11.00 SP
4	7	Apache Eagle J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Jessica Bedi · draw 1 5yo · G · grtp	7339U4	8-10	45	—	—	27.8	17/2·9.50 SP
5	1	Nelson Gate J: Hector Crouch · T: Gary & Josh Moore · draw 5 4yo · G · bb	92276	9-09	58	—	—	41.8	9/2·5.50 SP
6	6	Golden Samba J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Ed de Giles · draw 6 4yo · F · b	38437	8-10	45	—	—	32.1	9/2·5.50 SP
7	4	Our Papa Smurf J: Paddy Bradley · T: Gary & Josh Moore · draw 2 5yo · G · bp	20109	9-06	55	—	—	36.8	11/1·12.00 SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 20:45 Kempton (AW) on 29 June 2026?

Break Point (GB) won the 20:45 Kempton (AW) at SP 7.50. Ridden by Jude Fernandes. Trained by Luke Dace.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:45 Kempton (AW)?

No — the AI top pick (Sneaky Blinder) finished 3.

What were the placings in the 20:45 Kempton (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Break Point (GB) (7.50), 2. Balgowan (IRE) (2.75), 3. Sneaky Blinder (FR) (11.00).

What was the winning time for the 20:45 Kempton (AW)?

The winning time was 3m 35.52s, 9.82s slower than standard.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org