Who won the 14:45 Chester on 11 July 2026?
Advance Twentyfive (FR) won the 14:45 Chester at SP 23.00. Ridden by Harry Russell. Trained by Richard & Peter Fahey.
14:45 Chester
Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)
7½f · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 9 runners · £7,731 · Saturday, 11 July 2026
Result
AI top pick was a non-runnerRace report
- 1stAdvance Twentyfive (FR)Harry Russell·Richard & Peter Fahey22/1·23.00SP
- 2ndVixey (GB)Aiden Brookes·Simon West·beaten .75 lengths17/2·9.50SP
- 3rdGiant (GB)Harry Davies·Ian Williams·beaten 1 length9/2·5.50SP
Race time
1m 32.33s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Advance Twentyfive (FR))
“settled towards the back - denied room 2f out - driven and made late progress over 1f out - went to the front in the final furlong and ran on to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 22.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way51.9/100 rating
Percy's Lad
5.00Boyle Sports
Place portion settles at 1.80 · 1/5 odds · 3 places
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Percy's Lad
Percy's Lad is our selection in this competitive Class 4 contest over Chester's 8f, boasting a clear advantage over the rest of the ten-runner field on our figures. Obelix, Miami Matrix and Advance Twentyfive represent the main dangers, all fairly closely matched between themselves, but none gets near matching the selection's overall level. Confidence is high that Percy's Lad's superior form profile prevails here.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Eagle Bay
Sean D Bowen · Harriet Bethell · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 77.0 · +17.2 clear of next best (59.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight100small sample (n=4)Harriet Bethell: 2/4 winners last 14d (50%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Freshness10% weight100very strong14d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight93very strongLast 6: 3-1-1
- Ratings50% weight57averageOR 85 — above field median
MarketBest price 2.63 (BetWright) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Chester 7½f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.11).
Low (1–4)
IV 1.11
Mid (5–7)
IV 0.75
High (8–10)
IV 1.11
Today: Percy's Lad (draw 4) and Obelix (draw 2) get the bias; Eagle Bay (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 84 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | J: Harry Russell · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 6 3yo · G · bvFT V | 95607 | 78 | 39.2 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 2 | 4 | J: Aiden Brookes · T: Simon West · draw 8 6yo · M · b | 13358 | 77 | 59.8 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 3 | 10 | J: Harry Davies · T: Ian Williams · draw 1 6yo · G · b | 630024 | 60 | 40.1 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Donagh Murphy(7) · T: Patrick Morris · draw 3 4yo · G · bp | 00249 | 84 | 46.9 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 5 | 3 | J: Dylan Hogan · T: Julie Camacho · draw 2 6yo · G · bh | 89015 | 83 | 49.3 | 11/4·3.75 SP |
| 6 | 1 | J: Edward Greatrex · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler · draw 4 8yo · G · ch | 40062 | 87 | 51.9 | 7/4F·2.75 SP |
| 7 | 6 | J: Jack Callan(3) · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 10 7yo · G · bv | 29722 | 76 | 45.5 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 8 | 7 | J: Laura Pearson · T: David Loughnane · draw 9 4yo · G · ch/esFT /ES | 88054 | 74 | 48.7 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 9 | 8 | J: David Allan · T: Donald McCain · draw 7 8yo · G · bbFT B | 09075 | 72 | 45.5 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Sean D Bowen · T: Harriet Bethell · draw 5 3yo · G · b | 311 | 85 | 77.0 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:45 Chester?
No — the AI top pick (Eagle Bay) was a non-runner or unplaced.
What were the placings in the 14:45 Chester?
Top finishers: 1. Advance Twentyfive (FR) (23.00), 2. Vixey (GB) (9.50), 3. Giant (GB) (5.50).
What was the winning time for the 14:45 Chester?
The winning time was 1m 32.33s.
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