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RacingAlpha

18:30 Killarney

Ireland

Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden

1m · Flat · Good · 9 runners · €9,000 · Wednesday, 15 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 3rd
  1. 1st
    Kalir (IRE)
    Chris Hayes·D K Weld
    3/1·4.00
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Cello Sonata (GB)
    Dylan Browne McMonagle·M D O'Callaghan·beaten 0.3 lengths
    15/8·2.88
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Elusive Path (IRE)AI top pick · 61.7
    Colin Keane·G M Lyons·beaten 4 lengths
    6/4F·2.50
    SP
Race time
1m 44.90s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Kalir (IRE))

“handy early - 4th at halfway - shaken up with 2f to run - driven to edge into the front with 1f to run and ran on in the final furlong”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →
Each-way61.7/100 rating
Elusive Path
5.00CopyBet
Place portion settles at 1.80 · 1/5 odds · 3 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Why the model rates this top

Elusive Path

Colin Keane · G M Lyons · 3yo

Top-rated of 10
score 61.7 · +9.6 clear of next best (52.1)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    26d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    72strong
    Last 6: 3-2
  • Trainer20% weight
    55average
    G M Lyons: 5/23 winners last 14d (22%)
  • Ratings50% weight
    53average
    OR 79
MarketBest price 5.00 (CopyBet) · 3rd in the market of 10.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Killarney 1m

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).

Low (1–4)
IV 1.24
Mid (5–7)
IV 1.12
High (8–10)
IV 0.63

Today: Elusive Path (draw 3) and Strikewhileitshot (draw 1) get the bias; Kalir (draw 10) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 72 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
14
Kalir
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld · draw 10
3yo · G · bp
34344
8252.1
3/1·4.00
SP
21
Cello Sonata
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 5
3yo · C · b
5
—22.5
15/8·2.88
SP
32
Elusive Path
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons · draw 3
3yo · G · b
32
7961.7
6/4F·2.50
SP
46
Pinoroyale
J: Gary Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell · draw 9
3yo · G · b
9
—12.2
28/1·29.00
SP
53
Holy Lettuce
J: W J Lee · T: K J Condon · draw 4
3yo · G · g
——15.0
18/1·19.00
SP
67
Private Peaceful
J: Shane Foley · T: E McNamara · draw 7
3yo · G · b
——15.0
16/1·17.00
SP
78
Strikewhileitshot
J: Nathan Crosse · T: David Marnane · draw 1
3yo · C · b
026
7238.7
25/1·26.00
SP
810
Winston's Promise
J: Luke McAteer · T: Liam P Cusack · draw 6
3yo · G · b
0
—10.0
150/1·151.00
SP
95
Omissions
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Eoin Griffin · draw 8
3yo · G · b
90
—18.9
200/1·201.00
SP
——
Transcript
J: Paddy Harnett(5) · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · draw 2
3yo · G · bt
2
—38.1—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 18:30 Killarney on 15 July 2026?

Kalir (IRE) won the 18:30 Killarney at SP 4.00. Ridden by Chris Hayes. Trained by D K Weld.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:30 Killarney?

No — the AI top pick (Elusive Path) finished 3.

What were the placings in the 18:30 Killarney?

Top finishers: 1. Kalir (IRE) (4.00), 2. Cello Sonata (GB) (2.88), 3. Elusive Path (IRE) (2.50).

What was the winning time for the 18:30 Killarney?

The winning time was 1m 44.90s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org