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19:45 Leopardstown

Ireland

Mervue Equine Handicap

1m2f · Flat · Good · 9 runners · €12,000 · Thursday, 16 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 3rd
  1. 1st
    Marmeladova (IRE)
    W J Lee·K J Condon
    3/1·4.00
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Blackjack Hills (IRE)
    Robbie Colgan·Matthew J Smith·beaten 0.3 lengths
    11/1·12.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Daler (IRE)AI top pick · 59.7
    Colin Keane·G M Lyons·beaten 1 length
    5/2F·3.50
    SP
Race time
2m 6.75s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Marmeladova (IRE))

“Raced in the pack early - 6th approaching halfway - made ground but short of room over 1f out - improved between rivals and driven to the front over 100 yards out before staying on”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Daler

Daler is our selection at Leopardstown, the highest-rated of these nine runners on our figures. En Or, Marmeladova and Unterberg fill out the principal dangers, all rated close behind on the same book and the clear threats to the selection. With the clearest claim on figures in the race, this is a confident selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Daler

Colin Keane · G M Lyons · 4yo

Top-rated of 9
score 59.7 · +4.2 clear of next best (55.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    24d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    60average
    Last 6: 4-8-7-1-2
  • Ratings50% weight
    55average
    OR 83 — above field median
  • Trainer20% weight
    50average
    G M Lyons: 5/25 winners last 14d (20%)
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Leopardstown 1m2f

full course data →

Strong: middle favoured (IV 1.24).

Low (1–3)
IV 1.12
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.24
High (7–9)
IV 0.64

Today: Faro Island (draw 4) and Neo Smart (draw 6) get the bias; Daler (draw 8) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 113 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
14
Marmeladova
J: W J Lee · T: K J Condon · draw 2
5yo · M · b
81432
7545.0
3/1·4.00
SP
29
Blackjack Hills
J: Robbie Colgan · T: Matthew J Smith · draw 9
4yo · G · chb
00117
6441.7
11/1·12.00
SP
32
Daler
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons · draw 8
4yo · G · btp
48712
8359.7
5/2F·3.50
SP
46
Sinbad My Dad
J: Joseph Harnett(7) · T: Seamus Fahey · draw 5
5yo · G · b
33986
7037.8
10/1·11.00
SP
55
Neo Smart
J: Declan McDonogh · T: J S Bolger · draw 6
5yo · M · bt
419774
7039.7
6/1·7.00
SP
67
Faro Island
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: A Oliver · draw 4
4yo · G · chb
10417
6744.8
3/1·4.00
SP
78
Out On Friday
J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Philip M Byrne · draw 3
10yo · G · b
00020
6544.3
40/1·41.00
SP
83
Unterberg
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Laura Hourigan · draw 7
7yo · G · b
511108
7855.4
20/1·21.00
SP
91
En Or
J: Ben Coen · T: A J Martin · draw 1
8yo · G · bt
70900
8443.4
25/1·26.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 19:45 Leopardstown on 16 July 2026?

Marmeladova (IRE) won the 19:45 Leopardstown at SP 4.00. Ridden by W J Lee. Trained by K J Condon.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 19:45 Leopardstown?

No — the AI top pick (Daler) finished 3.

What were the placings in the 19:45 Leopardstown?

Top finishers: 1. Marmeladova (IRE) (4.00), 2. Blackjack Hills (IRE) (12.00), 3. Daler (IRE) (3.50).

What was the winning time for the 19:45 Leopardstown?

The winning time was 2m 6.75s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org