18+ • Bet Responsibly • Racing Alpha does not accept betsBeGambleAware.org
RacingAlpha

16:45 Thirsk

Thirsk Sky Bet Summer Festival Day Friday 24th July Handicap Stakes

1m · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 6 runners · £4,710 · Thursday, 16 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd
  1. 1st
    Capital Guarantee (IRE)
    Conor Whiteley·David O'Meara
    15/2·8.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Military Leader (GB)AI top pick · 47.9
    P J McDonald·Phillip Makin·beaten 0.3 lengths
    9/4·3.25
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Barley (IRE)
    Sean Kirrane·Tim Easterby·beaten 1.75 lengths
    9/2·5.50
    SP
Race time
1m 38.93s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Capital Guarantee (IRE))

“tracked in second early - closed on pace-setter 1f out - battled to the front and got up close home”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.25 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Capital Guarantee

Capital Guarantee is our selection, holding the highest rating in this six-runner Class 5 at Thirsk. Degale, Harswell Ruby and Barley are the chief dangers, all rated within two pounds of the selection and giving this race a tightly-bunched feel at the head of the market on our figures. Capital Guarantee's rating edge is enough to make him the pick, though with three others in close attendance our confidence is only medium.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Military Leader

P J McDonald · Phillip Makin · 5yo

Top-rated of 6
score 47.9 · +2.2 clear of next best (45.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    85very strong
    34d since last run (fresh)
  • Form20% weight
    81very strong
    Last 6: 2-1-1-3-2
  • Ratings50% weight
    47below average
    OR 70
  • Trainer20% weight
    0small sample (n=5)
    Phillip Makin: 0/5 winners last 14d (0%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Thirsk 1m

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–2)
IV 0.82
Mid (3–4)
IV 1.04
High (5–6)
IV 1.16

Today: Harswell Ruby (draw 6) and Degale (draw 5) get the bias; Military Leader (draw 1) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 129 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
11
Capital Guarantee
J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: David O'Meara · draw 3
6yo · G · ch
020906
7536.9
15/2·8.50
SP
24
Military Leader
J: P J McDonald · T: Phillip Makin · draw 1
5yo · G · bb
21132
7047.9
9/4·3.25
SP
36
Barley
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby · draw 2
7yo · G · bp
062323
6845.7
9/2·5.50
SP
43
Harswell Ruby
J: Joanna Mason · T: Roger Fell · draw 6
4yo · F · bp
546452
7039.6
13/8F·2.62
SP
52
Degale
J: William Pyle · T: David & Nicola Barron · draw 5
5yo · G · b
030508
7233.9
9/1·10.00
SP
65
Cosmos Raj
J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 4
8yo · G · bp
09576
6938.5
40/1·41.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:45 Thirsk on 16 July 2026?

Capital Guarantee (IRE) won the 16:45 Thirsk at SP 8.50. Ridden by Conor Whiteley. Trained by David O'Meara.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:45 Thirsk?

No — the AI top pick (Military Leader) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 16:45 Thirsk?

Top finishers: 1. Capital Guarantee (IRE) (8.50), 2. Military Leader (GB) (3.25), 3. Barley (IRE) (5.50).

What was the winning time for the 16:45 Thirsk?

The winning time was 1m 38.93s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org