Who won the 16:00 Ayr on 20 July 2026?
Hale End (IRE) won the 16:00 Ayr at SP 3.25. Ridden by Sean Kirrane. Trained by Michael Dods.
16:00 Ayr
John Hamilton ScotRail Celebration Handicap Stakes
1m · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 9 runners · £4,187 · Monday, 20 July 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 7thRace report
- 1stHale End (IRE)Sean Kirrane·Michael Dods9/4J·3.25SP
- 2ndStarliner (IRE)William Pyle·Linda Perratt·beaten .75 lengths11/1·12.00SP
- 3rdRunninsonofagun (IRE)Jason Hart·Tristan Davidson·beaten 0.3 lengths9/4J·3.25SP
Race time
1m 36.39s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Hale End (IRE))
“up with the pace and going comfortably from the start - moved into third 2f out - driven 1f out - hit the front inside the final 110yds and stayed on strongly”
AI top-rated Mayor Of Maghera (score 50.9) finished 7th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 11.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way50.9/100 rating
Mayor Of Maghera
10.00Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Benacre
Benacre is a confident selection at Ayr, and while he's without a win in his last six starts, he's a long way clear of his official rating and tops our figures for that reason. Hale End is the closest on paper, only narrowly behind, with a win five starts back followed by two runner-up efforts. Donna Nook and Cisco Disco also have recent wins among their form and add depth to the opposition. Even so, Benacre's underlying level marks him out as the one to beat.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Mayor Of Maghera
Sam James · R Mike Smith · 4yo
Top-rated of 9
score 50.9 · +0.5 clear of next best (50.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong20d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight65averageLast 6: 6-4-3-4-1
- Ratings50% weight42below averageOR 63
- Trainer20% weight35below averageR Mike Smith: 2/14 winners last 14d (14%)
MarketBest price 10.00 (Betfair Exchange) · 5th in the market of 9.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 1m
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 1.06
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.92
High (7–9)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 140 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods · draw 1 6yo · G · bp | 412207 | 75 | 49.9 | 9/4J·3.25 SP |
| 2 | 8 | J: William Pyle · T: Linda Perratt · draw 2 5yo · G · baybrownvFT V | 193882 | 61 | 35.4 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 3 | 6 | J: Jason Hart · T: Tristan Davidson · draw 4 4yo · G · bb | 08351 | 60 | 50.4 | 9/4J·3.25 SP |
| 4 | 4 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 6 4yo · F · btv | 294144 | 72 | 45.2 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 5 | 5 | J: Oliver Stammers · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 3 6yo · G · bp | 355054 | 72 | 45.5 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 6 | 3 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: R Mike Smith · draw 8 8yo · G · b | 11870 | 73 | 46.5 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 7 | 7 | J: Sam James · T: R Mike Smith · draw 5 4yo · G · bp | 64341 | 63 | 50.9 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 8 | 9 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Linda Perratt · draw 7 6yo · M · b | 11370 | 61 | 37.5 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 9 | 2 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 9 5yo · M · b | 110614 | 73 | 49.3 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:00 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Mayor Of Maghera) finished 7.
What were the placings in the 16:00 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Hale End (IRE) (3.25), 2. Starliner (IRE) (12.00), 3. Runninsonofagun (IRE) (3.25).
What was the winning time for the 16:00 Ayr?
The winning time was 1m 36.39s.
Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org