Who won the 16:53 Southwell (AW) on 23 July 2026?
Timely Affair (GB) won the 16:53 Southwell (AW) at SP 5.50. Ridden by Jack Nicholls. Trained by William Knight.
16:53 Southwell (AW)
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Apprentice Handicap Stakes
7f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 13 runners · £4,449 · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Result
AI top pick was a non-runnerRace report
- 1stTimely Affair (GB)Jack Nicholls·William Knight9/2·5.50SP
- 2ndDannick (GB)Jude Fernandes·Gary & Josh Moore·beaten 0.1 lengths3/1F·4.00SP
- 3rdAnthropologist (GB)Conor Whiteley·Michael Herrington·beaten .75 lengths5/1·6.00SP
Race time
1m 28.25s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Timely Affair (GB))
“Travelled up with the pace - pushed along a furlong out - hit the front and stayed on well inside the final furlong - battled hard to the line and edged home in a driving finish”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way51.3/100 rating
Timely Affair
6.20Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Gunfighter
Gunfighter is our selection, preferred over the pair rated marginally higher on our figures thanks to a progressive profile and a fitness edge. The gap to those two, Red Mirage and Blazing Son, is only a handful of pounds, making this a workable swap rather than a leap of faith. Pursuit of Truth is the other danger worth noting, rated closely enough to matter in a well-graded field. Confidence in the selection is low given how tightly this line-up is packed.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Gunfighter
Toby Moore(7) · John Butler · 5yo
Top-rated of 13
score 60.6 · +9.3 clear of next best (51.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight100very strongJohn Butler: 4/10 winners last 14d (40%)
- Freshness10% weight100very strong18d since last run (race-fit window)
- Ratings50% weight46below averageOR 69 — highest combined rating in the field
- Form20% weight38below averageLast 6: 0-0-7-9-1
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 7f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–5)
IV 0.96
Mid (6–10)
IV 1.04
High (11–14)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | J: Jack Nicholls · T: William Knight · draw 7 4yo · G · bp | 522133 | 62 | 51.3 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: Jude Fernandes(7) · T: Gary & Josh Moore · draw 4 4yo · G · chtv | 70851 | 65 | 47.5 | 3/1F·4.00 SP |
| 3 | 3 | J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: Michael Herrington · draw 1 4yo · G · bp | 216484 | 69 | 47.5 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 4 | 4 | J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 3 8yo · G · chb | 43668 | 68 | 42.9 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 5 | 13 | J: Elle-May Croot(3) · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 5 5yo · G · bt | 043874 | 62 | 49.4 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 6 | 8 | J: Kyle McHugh(5) · T: Joseph Parr · draw 2 4yo · G · bt | 335486 | 65 | 46.1 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 7 | 6 | J: Taryn Langley(3) · T: Declan Carroll · draw 12 5yo · G · b | 30134 | 67 | 48.3 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 8 | 9 | J: Luke Catton · T: S Woods · draw 13 4yo · G · cht | 863205 | 64 | 38.2 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| 9 | 12 | J: William Pyle · T: Alan Brown · draw 9 4yo · G · bb | 16685 | 63 | 34.7 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 10 | 7 | J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(3) · T: Bryan Smart · draw 6 8yo · G · ch | 269853 | 66 | 38.5 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 11 | 5 | J: Finlay Bassett(7) · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 11 5yo · G · cht | 71040 | 67 | 37.6 | 80/1·81.00 SP |
| 12 | 10 | J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby · draw 10 4yo · G · bp | 625534 | 64 | 46.4 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 13 | 11 | J: Harry Burns · T: Patrick Morris · draw 8 5yo · G · bp | 23968 | 64 | 33.0 | 100/1·101.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Toby Moore(7) · T: John Butler · draw 14 5yo · G · b | 00791 | 69 | 60.6 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:53 Southwell (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Gunfighter) was a non-runner or unplaced.
What were the placings in the 16:53 Southwell (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Timely Affair (GB) (5.50), 2. Dannick (GB) (4.00), 3. Anthropologist (GB) (6.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:53 Southwell (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 28.25s.
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