15:25 Curragh

IrelandFeature

Coolmore Stud City Of Troy Tom Cooper Irish EBF Futurity Stakes (Group 2)

7f · Flat · Class 1 · Good · 6 runners · €78,000 · Saturday, 22 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Florida Bay

No. 2 · score 70.7 · +33.9 clear of next best · best 5/1·6.20

Best value vs consensus

Green Dreamer

27·27.00 Matchbook · +21% vs fair (consensus 22.27)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Nola SoulDiffers from our pick

Nola Soul heads this six-runner field at the Curragh on a rating narrowly ahead of Florida Bay, and his profile over seven furlongs on good ground gives reasonable grounds for optimism, though the closeness of the figures means Florida Bay represents a genuine threat and Giant Sequoia, rated a few pounds back, cannot be dismissed if the selection fails to reproduce his best. City of Dubai is the other danger to factor in, though the rating gap to the principals looks difficult to bridge. On balance the case rests on Nola Soul translating that slim rating advantage into a win, and he is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Florida Bay

Ronan Whelan · A P O'Brien · 2yo

Top-rated of 6

score 70.7 · +33.9 clear of next best (36.8)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
30d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
80strong
Last 6: 3-1-4-1
Ratings50% weight
71strong
OR 106 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
55average
A P O'Brien: 10/46 winners last 14d (22%)

MarketBest price 6.20 (Matchbook) · 3rd in the market of 6.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
2Florida Bay
Prominent(2)
3Giant Sequoia 5Nail House
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(3)
1City of Dubai 4Green Dreamer 6Nola Soul

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Curragh 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–2)

IV 0.96

Mid (3–4)

IV 0.99

High (5–6)

IV 1.04

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 211 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Florida BayPick J: Ronan Whelan · T: A P O'Brien · draw 2 · combo 2/23 (9%) 2yo · C · bDGoing 2/3	3141	9-05	106	—	—	70.7	11/2·6.45	6.2·6.20 Matchbook · -4% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Matchbook6.2·6.20LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00BetWright9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 BresBet9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50Smarkets4.9·4.90Betfair Exchange4.9·4.90 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50
3	Giant Sequoia J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien · draw 1 · combo 13/93 (14%) 2yo · C · bC&D	31	9-05	—	—	—	36.8	7/4·2.79	2.56·2.56 Matchbook · -8% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Matchbook2.56·2.56Bet3656/4·2.50 Betfair Exchange2.48·2.48 Bet Victor11/8·2.38 BetMGM11/8·2.38 BetTom11/8·2.38 BetWright11/8·2.38 Betano11/8·2.38 Betfred11/8·2.38 Boyle Sports11/8·2.38 BresBet11/8·2.38 Coral11/8·2.38 Dragon Bet11/8·2.38 Ladbrokes11/8·2.38 Star Sports11/8·2.38 Midnite11/8·2.38 Quinn Bet11/8·2.38 SportingIndex11/8·2.38 Spreadex11/8·2.38 Unibet11/8·2.38 William Hill11/8·2.38 Paddy Power11/8·2.38Betfair Sportsbook11/8·2.38LiveScore Bet5/4·2.25Virgin Bet5/4·2.25Smarkets2.24·2.24SmarketsSBK6/5·2.20
4	Green Dreamer J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 4 · combo 6/72 (8%) 2yo · C · bGoing 1/3	51	9-05	—	—	—	31.3	22/1·22.27	27·27.00 Matchbook · +21% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Matchbook27·27.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Betfred18/1·19.00 BresBet18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Midnite16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50Smarkets14·14.00SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00
5	Nail House J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 3 · combo 43/213 (20%) 2yo · C · chGoing 1/2	13	9-05	—	—	—	30.7	9/1·9.96	15·15.00 Matchbook · +51% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Matchbook15·15.00Paddy Power8/1·9.00 BresBet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 BetMGM15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Betano15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 Bet3657/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00Smarkets6.2·6.20SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20
1	City of Dubai J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey · draw 6 · combo 10/70 (14%) 2yo · C · b	12	9-05	—	—	—	27.1	8/1·8.79	8·8.00 Matchbook · -9% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Matchbook8·8.00Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50BetMGM13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 BresBet13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20 Midnite6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Smarkets6.2·6.20SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00
6	Nola Soul J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J A Stack · draw 5 · combo 3/25 (12%) 2yo · C · bDOnly runner	11	9-05	—	—	—	26.5	10/3·4.40	3/1·4.00 Bet365 · -9% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Bet3653/1·4.00Matchbook3.85·3.85Betfair Exchange3.8·3.80 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 BresBet11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75 Unibet11/4·3.75 William Hill11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75 BetTom11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 Betano11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75 BetMGM11/4·3.75 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Star Sports11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 LiveScore Bet11/4·3.75 Midnite11/4·3.75Virgin Bet11/4·3.75Paddy Power11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook11/4·3.75Smarkets3.45·3.45SmarketsSBK12/5·3.40

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27 bookmakers per horse with the 17% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Coolmore Stud City Of Troy Tom Cooper Irish EBF Futurity Stakes (Group 2)?

The Coolmore Stud City Of Troy Tom Cooper Irish EBF Futurity Stakes (Group 2) is off at 15:25 on 22 August 2026 at Curragh (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:25 Curragh?

7f, Class 1, Flat, 6 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:25 Curragh?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:25 Curragh?

The AI top-rated runner is Florida Bay (score 70.7, best price 6.20). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:25 Curragh?

The market favourite is Giant Sequoia at a best price of 2.56. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Florida Bay.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org