Who won the 16:15 Ayr on 27 July 2026?
Empirical (IRE) won the 16:15 Ayr at SP 3.50. Ridden by Kieran Shoemark. Trained by Ed Walker.
16:15 Ayr
Ladbrokes 'Insure Your Acca On Football' Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £5,154 · Monday, 27 July 2026
Result
AI top pick was a non-runnerRace report
- 1stEmpirical (IRE)Kieran Shoemark·Ed Walker5/2·3.50SP
- 2ndColourband (IRE)Jason Hart·Simon & Ed Crisford·beaten 1 length2/1J·3.00SP
- 3rdGeo (IRE)Andrew Mullen·Jim Goldie·beaten 1.25 lengths8/1·9.00SP
Race time
2m 7.95s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Empirical (IRE))
“settled in third early - progress on the outside over 2f out - shared the front over 1f out - asserted inside final furlong to score comfortably”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Obito
Obito is our selection at Ayr over a mile and a quarter, and clear on our figures with a rating of 96 - fully ten pounds up on Pearl Eye in second. Colourband and Geo also feature among the dangers, but neither closes that gap on these ratings. It's a high-confidence verdict for Obito, who rates well above the rest of this field.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Rastnet
Connor Beasley · John Butler · 4yo
Top-rated of 5
score 61.8 · +2.9 clear of next best (58.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong44d since last run (fresh)
- Trainer20% weight73strongJohn Butler: 5/17 winners last 14d (29%)
- Ratings50% weight57averageOR 85 — highest combined rating in the field
- Form20% weight52averageLast 6: 2-2-2-3-7
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 1m2f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.20).
Low (1–3)
IV 0.76
Mid (4–5)
IV 1.06
High (6–7)
IV 1.20
Today: Pearl Eye (draw 7) and Alpine Sierra (draw 6) get the bias; Empirical (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 57 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 2 3yo · G · bbFT B | 73831 | 76 | 58.9 | 5/2·3.50 SP |
| 2 | 4 | J: Jason Hart · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 1 3yo · G · b | 32164 | 82 | 56.3 | 2/1J·3.00 SP |
| 3 | 5 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Jim Goldie · draw 3 4yo · F · b | 162422 | 70 | 48.8 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 4 | 3 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 7 6yo · G · bp | 341361 | 76 | 53.6 | 2/1J·3.00 SP |
| 5 | 7 | J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 6 8yo · G · baybrown | 311193 | 65 | 49.5 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 4 4yo · G · bh | 68255 | 79 | 48.1 | — |
| — | — | J: Connor Beasley · T: John Butler · draw 5 4yo · F · bp | 22237 | 85 | 61.8 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:15 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Rastnet) was a non-runner or unplaced.
What were the placings in the 16:15 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Empirical (IRE) (3.50), 2. Colourband (IRE) (3.00), 3. Geo (IRE) (9.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:15 Ayr?
The winning time was 2m 7.95s.
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