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18:40 Epsom

Spillers Handicap Stakes

1m4f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £4,449 · Thursday, 30 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 4th
  1. 1st
    Dream Harder (IRE)
    Rob Hornby·Mark Loughnane
    10/1·11.00
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Two Plus Two (IRE)
    Dylan Hogan·Ed de Giles·beaten 0.3 lengths
    11/2·6.50
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Twilight Moon (GB)
    Dougie Costello·Marcus Tregoning·beaten 3.5 lengths
    10/1·11.00
    SP
Race time
2m 39.48s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Dream Harder (IRE))

“Travelled with enthusiasm early - settled at the rear - urged along with 3f remaining - made ground into contention inside the final furlong - edged in front on the line under maximum effort”

AI top-rated Imperial Cult (score 63.9) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.33 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Dream Harder

Dream Harder holds a clear edge over the field on our figures, rated seven pounds clear of the next best Twilight Moon and comfortably ahead of Imperial Cult and Stage Show, making this a straightforward case on merit over twelve furlongs on good-to-firm ground at Epsom. Twilight Moon represents the most credible threat and will need to find improvement to bridge that gap, while Imperial Cult and Stage Show look up against it at these weights. **Dream Harder** is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Imperial Cult

Neil Callan · George Baker · 7yo

Top-rated of 5
score 63.9 · +4.4 clear of next best (59.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    90very strong
    George Baker: 4/11 winners last 14d (36%)
  • Form20% weight
    83very strong
    Last 6: 3-1-1-4-1
  • Freshness10% weight
    70strong
    6d since last run (quick turnaround)
  • Ratings50% weight
    45below average
    OR 67
MarketBest price 1.41 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Epsom 1m4f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.14).

Low (1–2)
IV 0.99
Mid (3–4)
IV 0.87
High (5–5)
IV 1.14

Today: Two Plus Two (draw 5) gets the bias; Twilight Moon (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 119 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
12
Dream Harder
J: Rob Hornby · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 3
7yo · G · btp
66668
7237.3
10/1·11.00
SP
25
Two Plus Two
J: Dylan Hogan · T: Ed de Giles · draw 5
6yo · G · chb
41424
6042.2
11/2·6.50
SP
31
Twilight Moon
J: Dougie Costello · T: Marcus Tregoning · draw 4
4yo · F · b
11665
7455.0
10/1·11.00
SP
43
Imperial Cult
J: Neil Callan · T: George Baker · draw 2
7yo · G · ch
31141
6763.9
1/3F·1.33
SP
54
Stage Show
J: Finley Marsh · T: Alexandra Dunn · draw 1
6yo · G · bp
65183
6459.4
28/1·29.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 18:40 Epsom on 30 July 2026?

Dream Harder (IRE) won the 18:40 Epsom at SP 11.00. Ridden by Rob Hornby. Trained by Mark Loughnane.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:40 Epsom?

No — the AI top pick (Imperial Cult) finished 4.

What were the placings in the 18:40 Epsom?

Top finishers: 1. Dream Harder (IRE) (11.00), 2. Two Plus Two (IRE) (6.50), 3. Twilight Moon (GB) (11.00).

What was the winning time for the 18:40 Epsom?

The winning time was 2m 39.48s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org