Who won the 20:04 Salisbury on 13 August 2026?
Supplicate (GB) won the 20:04 Salisbury at SP 2.38. Ridden by Jack Mitchell. Trained by Roger Varian.
20:04 Salisbury
Venture Security Handicap Stakes
1m2f · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 4 runners · £5,888 · Thursday, 13 August 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 11/8·2.38Race report
- 1stSupplicate (GB)AI top pick · 66.1Jack Mitchell·Roger Varian11/8·2.38SP
- 2ndSudbury Hill (IRE)Oisin Murphy·Harry Derham·beaten 2 lengths8/1·9.00SP
- 3rdOn The Inlet (IRE)Ebrahim Nader·Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole·beaten 4.5 lengths20/1·21.00SP
Race time
2m 10.96s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Supplicate (GB))
“Settled just behind the pace - pushed to the front approaching the final furlong - drove on to the line to score”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.38 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Akho Mezzna
Akho Mezzna rates level with Sudbury Hill on our figures, but it is the progressive profile and strong clock evidence behind the form that swings the nod her way, suggesting she may have more improvement to offer over this ten-furlong trip at Salisbury. Sudbury Hill is the obvious danger and cannot be dismissed lightly, while Seven Sisters and On The Inlet also carry claims in what looks a competitive Class 4 heat on good-to-firm ground. Confidence is modest given how tight the form lines are at the head of the field, but the evidence points just enough in one direction. Akho Mezzna is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Supplicate
Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian · 3yo
Top-rated of 4
score 66.1 · +5.5 clear of next best (60.6)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong14d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight93very strongLast 6: 5-1-1-1
- Ratings50% weight54averageOR 81 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight53averageRoger Varian: 6/29 winners last 14d (21%)
MarketBest price 2.58 (Betfair Exchange) · 2nd in the market of 4.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Salisbury 1m2f
full course data →Strong: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.39).
Low (1–2)
IV 0.74
Mid (3–4)
IV 0.87
High (5–6)
IV 1.39
Today: Storm Point (draw 5) and On The Inlet (draw 6) get the bias; Supplicate (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 62 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian · draw 2 3yo · F · ch | 5111 | 81 | 66.1 | 11/8·2.38 SP |
| 2 | 3 | J: Oisin Murphy · T: Harry Derham · draw 3 3yo · G · bp | 23201 | 80 | 59.1 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 3 | 5 | J: Ebrahim Nader · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole · draw 6 3yo · G · b | 11053 | 79 | 45.9 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 2314 | 81 | 60.6 | 10/11F·1.91 SP |
| — | — | J: Oisin Murphy · T: Jack Jones · draw 4 3yo · G · bbFT B | 86227 | 79 | 49.3 | — |
| — | — | J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 5 3yo · G · b | 41617 | 78 | 53.9 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:04 Salisbury?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Supplicate, won the race (AI score 66.1).
What were the placings in the 20:04 Salisbury?
Top finishers: 1. Supplicate (GB) (2.38), 2. Sudbury Hill (IRE) (9.00), 3. On The Inlet (IRE) (21.00).
What was the winning time for the 20:04 Salisbury?
The winning time was 2m 10.96s.
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