16:45 Newbury

BetVictor Watch Weekend Winners EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Flat · Class 2 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £21,600 · Friday, 14 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 5-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Coat Of Red

No. 1 · score 71.0 · +24.7 clear of next best · best 17/2·9.50

Best value vs consensus

Coat Of Red (also top rated)

17/2·9.50 Virgin Bet · +8% vs fair (consensus 8.81)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Coat Of RedAgrees with our pick

Coat Of Red holds a narrow edge at the head of the ratings and arrives at Newbury with solid credentials over this six-furlong trip on good-to-firm ground, giving connections every reason to be hopeful. The danger is that Sorrengail, only four points below on our figures, is closely matched and could exploit any underperformance, while Ferrystream and Spirit Of Lyra also bring enough ability to trouble the principals if Coat Of Red fails to fire. Confidence is modest in a competitive Class 2 heat where the margins between the principals are slim, but on balance the ratings favour our selection. Coat Of Red is the pick.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Coat Of Red

Callum Rodriguez · Simon & Ed Crisford · 2yo

Top-rated of 5

score 71.0 · +24.7 clear of next best (46.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
16d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
90very strong
Simon & Ed Crisford: 9/25 winners last 14d (36%)
Form20% weight
82very strong
Last 6: 4-1
Ratings50% weight
53average
OR 80 — highest combined rating in the field

MarketBest price 9.50 (Virgin Bet) · 3rd in the market of 5.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
1Coat Of Red
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(1)
4Sorrengail
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(3)
2Evenfall 3Ferrystream 6Nonrem

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newbury 6f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–2)

IV 1.00

Mid (3–4)

IV 0.93

High (5–6)

IV 1.07

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 100 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	Coat Of RedPick J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 1 · combo 3/10 (30%) 2yo · F · bDOnly runner	41	9-06	80	—	—	71.0	8/1·8.81	17/2·9.50 Virgin Bet · +8% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Virgin Bet17/2·9.50LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Betfair Exchange9.2·9.20 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 PricedUp Bet15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 Bet36515/2·8.50 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 BresBet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 talkSPORT BET7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00BestOdds7/1·8.007Bet7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Unibet13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetAhoy13/2·7.50Octobet13/2·7.50CopyBet13/2·7.50 10 Bet13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50
4	Sorrengail J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby · draw 3 · combo 14/45 (31%) 2yo · F · bDGoing 1/2	41	9-06	—	—	—	46.3	9/4·3.17	3.2·3.20 Betfair Exchange All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange3.2·3.20 PricedUp Bet2/1·3.00 SmarketsSBK2/1·3.00 Bet3652/1·3.00 7Bet19/10·2.90 10 Bet15/8·2.88Virgin Bet15/8·2.88talkSPORT BET15/8·2.88 BetTom15/8·2.88 Bet Victor15/8·2.88 Unibet15/8·2.88 Ladbrokes15/8·2.88BestOdds15/8·2.88Coral15/8·2.88 Betfred15/8·2.88 BetWright15/8·2.88 LiveScore Bet15/8·2.88 Dragon Bet15/8·2.88 BetAhoy15/8·2.88 Spreadex15/8·2.88Octobet15/8·2.88SportingIndex15/8·2.88 BresBet15/8·2.88 Star Sports15/8·2.88 Betano15/8·2.88 William Hill7/4·2.75 Boyle Sports7/4·2.75 CopyBet7/4·2.75 Midnite7/4·2.75 Quinn Bet7/4·2.75
3	Ferrystream J: Oisin Murphy · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam · draw 6 · combo 1/6 (17%) 2yo · F · bDOnly runner	1	9-06	—	—	—	45.0	18/1·18.73	18.5·18.50 Betfair Exchange All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00talkSPORT BET16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 PricedUp Bet16/1·17.00 BetAhoy16/1·17.00Octobet16/1·17.00BresBet16/1·17.00BestOdds16/1·17.00CopyBet14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00
2	Evenfall J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey · draw 5 · combo 20/98 (20%) 2yo · F · b	1	9-06	—	—	—	44.5	EVS·1.98	1.9·1.90 Betfair Exchange · -4% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange1.9·1.90 SmarketsSBK5/6·1.83 Betfred4/5·1.80 Ladbrokes4/5·1.80 Midnite4/5·1.80 Boyle Sports4/5·1.80 BetTom4/5·1.80 Star Sports4/5·1.80 Unibet4/5·1.80 Spreadex4/5·1.80BestOdds4/5·1.807Bet4/5·1.80 SportingIndex4/5·1.80 Quinn Bet4/5·1.80 Bet Victor4/5·1.80 10 Bet4/5·1.80 Bet3654/5·1.80 Coral4/5·1.80 talkSPORT BET4/5·1.80 BetWright4/5·1.80 Betano4/5·1.80 Dragon Bet4/5·1.80 CopyBet4/5·1.80 PricedUp Bet4/5·1.80 BetAhoy4/5·1.80Octobet4/5·1.80BresBet4/5·1.80Virgin Bet8/11·1.73LiveScore Bet8/11·1.73 William Hill4/6·1.67
6	Nonrem J: Joe Leavy · T: Brian Meehan · draw 4 · combo 2/22 (9%) 2yo · F · b	6	9-02	—	—	—	17.5	66/1·73.80	100·100.00 Betfair Exchange · +36% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange100·100.00 SmarketsSBK90/1·91.00 William Hill80/1·81.00 PricedUp Bet80/1·81.00 7Bet70/1·71.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 talkSPORT BET66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 BetAhoy66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00Octobet66/1·67.00Midnite66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 BetWright60/1·61.00BestOdds60/1·61.00Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 BresBet60/1·61.00 Coral50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 CopyBet50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00
—	Spirit Of LyraNon-runner J: Tom Marquand · T: William Knight · draw 2 2yo · F · gr	41	9-06	81	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 10% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the BetVictor Watch Weekend Winners EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)?

The BetVictor Watch Weekend Winners EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) is off at 16:45 on 14 August 2026 at Newbury (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:45 Newbury?

6f, Class 2, Flat, 5 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:45 Newbury?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:45 Newbury?

The AI top-rated runner is Coat Of Red (score 71.0, best price 9.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:45 Newbury?

The market favourite is Evenfall at a best price of 1.90. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Coat Of Red.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org