18:08 Thirsk

Jw 4x4 Northallerton Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

7f · Flat · Class 3 · Good · 6 runners · £6,804 · Friday, 14 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

National Honour

No. 3 · score 45.6 · +15.5 clear of next best · best 8/15·1.55

Best value vs consensus

Gold Key

33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK · +3% vs fair (consensus 33.16)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

National Honour

James Doyle · Charlie Appleby · 2yo

Top-rated of 6

score 45.6 · +15.5 clear of next best (30.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100very strong
Charlie Appleby: 10/24 winners last 14d (42%)
Freshness10% weight
100very strong
14d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
78strong
Last 6: 2
Ratings50% weight
0weak
no Racing Post ratings on file

MarketBest price 1.55 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(1)
1Breaking The Habit
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(5)
2Gold Key 3National Honour 4Varzi 5Work Like Hell 6Meccapulco

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Thirsk 7f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–2)

IV 0.82

Mid (3–4)

IV 1.04

High (5–6)

IV 1.16

Today: Work Like Hell (draw 6) and Gold Key (draw 5) get the bias; Varzi (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 129 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	National HonourPick J: James Doyle · T: Charlie Appleby · draw 4 2yo · C · bOnly runner	2	9-07	—	—	—	45.6	4/6·1.65	1.55·1.55 Betfair Exchange · -6% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange1.55·1.55 Spreadex1/2·1.50 SmarketsSBK1/2·1.50 Unibet1/2·1.50 SportingIndex1/2·1.50Octobet4/9·1.44talkSPORT BET4/9·1.44 CopyBet4/9·1.44 BetWright4/9·1.44 Dragon Bet4/9·1.44 BetAhoy4/9·1.44 Quinn Bet4/9·1.44 BresBet4/9·1.44 Coral4/9·1.44 Betfred4/9·1.44 Boyle Sports4/9·1.44 Ladbrokes4/9·1.44 BetTom4/9·1.44 Bet Victor4/9·1.44 Betano4/9·1.44BestOdds4/9·1.44Star Sports4/9·1.44 Bet3654/9·1.44Virgin Bet2/5·1.40PricedUp Bet2/5·1.40 LiveScore Bet2/5·1.40 10 Bet2/5·1.40 7Bet2/5·1.40 Midnite2/5·1.40 William Hill4/11·1.36
4	Varzi J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke · draw 2 · combo 4/25 (16%) 2yo · C · bt	2	9-07	—	—	—	30.1	5/2·3.43	3.45·3.45 Betfair Exchange All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange3.45·3.45 SmarketsSBK12/5·3.40 BresBet2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 Bet3652/1·3.00 William Hill2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00talkSPORT BET2/1·3.00 BetWright2/1·3.00 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00 Betano2/1·3.00 Star Sports2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 CopyBet2/1·3.00BestOdds2/1·3.00Spreadex2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00 Boyle Sports2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 Bet Victor2/1·3.00 PricedUp Bet2/1·3.00 7Bet19/10·2.90 BetTom15/8·2.88 10 Bet15/8·2.88 Unibet15/8·2.88 BetAhoy15/8·2.88Octobet15/8·2.88Midnite7/4·2.75
5	Work Like Hell J: Daniel Tudhope · T: James Tate · draw 6 2yo · C · bOnly runner	—	9-07	—	—	—	27.5	18/1·19.44	16/1·17.00 Betano · -12% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betano16/1·17.00 CopyBet16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 BetAhoy16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00talkSPORT BET16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 PricedUp Bet16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00Octobet16/1·17.00BresBet16/1·17.00BestOdds16/1·17.007Bet16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betfair Exchange15·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00
1	Breaking The Habit J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 3 · combo 19/186 (10%) 2yo · G · gr	3	9-07	—	—	—	22.5	100/1·92.04	90/1·91.00 SmarketsSBK All 30 books ▾ SmarketsSBK90/1·91.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 talkSPORT BET80/1·81.00 Betano80/1·81.00 Bet Victor80/1·81.00 PricedUp Bet80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 Star Sports80/1·81.00 Quinn Bet80/1·81.00 Bet36580/1·81.00 Coral80/1·81.00 Betfred80/1·81.00 Boyle Sports80/1·81.00 Ladbrokes80/1·81.00 Unibet80/1·81.00 Betfair Exchange80·80.00 7Bet70/1·71.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 CopyBet66/1·67.00 BetAhoy66/1·67.00Octobet66/1·67.00BresBet66/1·67.00BestOdds66/1·67.00William Hill66/1·67.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00
6	Meccapulco J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods · draw 1 · combo 4/36 (11%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	18.0	100/1·115.48	100/1·101.00 Star Sports · -12% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Star Sports100/1·101.00 William Hill100/1·101.00 Coral100/1·101.00 Betfred100/1·101.00 PricedUp Bet100/1·101.00 Quinn Bet100/1·101.00 BetTom100/1·101.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 CopyBet100/1·101.00 Midnite100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports100/1·101.00 Ladbrokes100/1·101.00 Unibet100/1·101.00 Bet Victor100/1·101.00 BetAhoy100/1·101.00Octobet100/1·101.0010 Bet100/1·101.00 talkSPORT BET100/1·101.00 Betano100/1·101.00 7Bet80/1·81.00 Dragon Bet80/1·81.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 BresBet80/1·81.00BestOdds80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.00BetWright80/1·81.00 SmarketsSBK70/1·71.00 Betfair Exchange38·38.00
2	Gold Key J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 5 · combo 4/67 (6%) 2yo · C · chOnly pairing	9	9-07	—	—	—	14.2	33/1·33.16	33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK · +3% vs fair All 30 books ▾ SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 BresBet28/1·29.00BestOdds28/1·29.00Midnite28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 BetAhoy28/1·29.00 PricedUp Bet28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 talkSPORT BET28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00Octobet28/1·29.00Betfair Exchange28·28.00 CopyBet25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 14% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Jw 4x4 Northallerton Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)?

The Jw 4x4 Northallerton Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) is off at 18:08 on 14 August 2026 at Thirsk (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 18:08 Thirsk?

7f, Class 3, Flat, 6 runners declared.

What is the going for the 18:08 Thirsk?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 18:08 Thirsk?

The AI top-rated runner is National Honour (score 45.6, best price 1.55). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 18:08 Thirsk?

The market favourite is National Honour at a best price of 1.55.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org