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17:00 Yarmouth

Danny Frost - Medlock Electrical Distributors Classified Stakes

6f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 9 runners · £3,454 · Friday, 14 August 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 6 · score 50.8 · +5.6 clear of next best · best 11/2·6.60

Drawn 1, inside the favoured low third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus
17·17.00 Betfair Exchange · +9% vs fair (consensus 15.67)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way50.8/100 rating
Valadero
6.60Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: ValaderoAgrees with our pick

Valadero arrives here on a progressive profile that makes him an appealing proposition despite sitting three pounds below the top-rated Mister Sandman, and a fitness edge over several rivals in this nine-runner Class 6 sprint at Yarmouth could prove decisive over the six furlongs on good-to-firm ground. Mister Sandman holds the highest rating in the field and cannot be dismissed lightly, while Bullington Bry and Thanks Dad are capable of making their presence felt if running to their marks. Nevertheless, the upward trajectory shown by Valadero suggests there may be more to come, and that improvement curve is the reason he is preferred here. Valadero is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Valadero

Liam Wright(5) · Brian Toomey · 5yo

Top-rated of 9
score 50.8 · +5.6 clear of next best (45.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    83small sample (n=6)
    Brian Toomey: 2/6 winners last 14d (33%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
  • Freshness10% weight
    70strong
    8d since last run (quick turnaround)
  • Form20% weight
    55average
    Last 6: 6-7-8-3-1
  • Ratings50% weight
    33weak
    OR 49
MarketBest price 6.60 (Betfair Exchange) · 3rd in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Yarmouth 6f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.37).

Low (1–3)
IV 1.37
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.88
High (7–9)
IV 0.70

Today: Valadero (draw 1) and My Mate Mackley (draw 3) get the bias; Mister Sandman (draw 8) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 146 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
6
J: Liam Wright(5) · T: Brian Toomey · draw 1
5yo · G · chbGoing 1/2Only runner
67831
4950.87/1·7.846.6·6.60
Betfair Exchange · -16% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
2
J: Jude Fernandes(7) · T: Gary & Josh Moore · draw 8 · combo 3/22 (14%)
4yo · G · bh
23442
5045.24/1·5.224.9·4.90
Betfair Exchange · -6% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
8
J: Oliver Carmichael(7) · T: Adam Kirby · draw 3
3yo · G · bpOn last winning markDOnly rideOnly runner
322421
4745.13/1·3.9211/4·3.75
Bet365 · -4% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
9
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Martin Dunne · draw 2 · combo 1/7 (14%)
3yo · F · chClass dropOnly runner
874
4944.714/1·14.4715·15.00
Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
4
J: Darragh Keenan · T: Simon Hodgson · draw 9
6yo · G · bbFT BOnly runner
60575
4337.166/1·61.4955/1·56.00
SmarketsSBK · -9% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
3
J: Christian Howarth(3) · T: Scott Dixon · draw 4 · combo 4/40 (10%)
4yo · F · bpOnly pairing
906853
4636.218/1·18.0917.5·17.50
Betfair Exchange · -3% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
7
J: Stevie Donohoe · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 5 · combo 1/19 (5%)
3yo · F · bOnly runner
84073
4936.08/1·9.049.6·9.60
Betfair Exchange · +6% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
1
J: Ray Dawson · T: Jessica Macey · draw 6
4yo · G · bbOnly runner
747026
4932.68/1·9.047/1·8.00
Coral · -11% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
5
J: Mikkel Mortensen(5) · T: Scott Dixon · draw 7 · combo 0/10 (0%)
6yo · G · btvOnly ride
00086
4329.714/1·15.6717·17.00
Betfair Exchange · +9% vs fair
All 30 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 21% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Danny Frost - Medlock Electrical Distributors Classified Stakes?

The Danny Frost - Medlock Electrical Distributors Classified Stakes is off at 17:00 on 14 August 2026 at Yarmouth (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 17:00 Yarmouth?

6f, Class 6, Flat, 9 runners declared.

What is the going for the 17:00 Yarmouth?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 17:00 Yarmouth?

The AI top-rated runner is Valadero (score 50.8, best price 6.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 17:00 Yarmouth?

The market favourite is My Mate Mackley at a best price of 3.75. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Valadero.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org