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17:40 Tramore

Ireland

I.P.R.S. Handicap Steeplechase

2m6f · Chase · Good · 14 runners · €6,000 · Friday, 14 August 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 2 · score 69.4 · +11.0 clear of next best · best 20/1·22.00
Best value vs consensus
14/1·15.00 SmarketsSBK · +11% vs fair (consensus 13.50)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way58.4/100 rating
Thewaybackhome
7.60Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Shantou ShowDiffers from our pick

Shantou Show arrives here on a par with Not So Serious on ratings and just a pound behind the top-rated Our Zebo, but it is a fitness edge that tips the balance in favour of our selection in what looks a competitive renewal over this marathon trip at Tramore. Our Zebo and Not So Serious are the most obvious threats, with Pirate Island also capable of making his presence felt from a rating of 98, and in a field of seventeen over twenty-two furlongs the race is unlikely to be straightforward for any of them. The selection is Shantou Show.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Mercurial Sea

Carl Millar(5) · Nigel Thomas Slevin · 5yo

Top-rated of 14
score 69.4 · +11.0 clear of next best (58.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    100small sample (n=2)
    Nigel Thomas Slevin: 1/2 winners last 14d (50%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
  • Freshness10% weight
    85very strong
    31d since last run (fresh)
  • Ratings50% weight
    63average
    OR 94 — above field median
  • Form20% weight
    48below average
    Last 6: 8-6-2-8-2
MarketBest price 22.00 (Betfair Exchange) · 12th in the market of 14.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 3 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
2
5yo · M · bOnly runner
86282
9469.422/1·22.9522·22.00
Betfair Exchange · -4% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
6
J: John Shinnick · T: Terence O'Brien · draw 0 · combo 1/13 (8%)
5yo · G · bpOnly rideOnly runner
70342
8958.417/2·9.457.6·7.60
Betfair Exchange · -20% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
7
7yo · G · bpOnly rideOnly runner
890P3
8555.111/1·12.1510·10.00
Betfair Exchange · -18% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
5
J: Simon Torrens · T: Noel C Kelly · draw 0
7yo · G · grbOnly ride
02316
9051.111/1·12.1510/1·11.00
SmarketsSBK · -9% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
12
13yo · G · btbGoing 1/5Only runner
42132
7550.112/1·13.5014/1·15.00
SmarketsSBK · +11% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
1
7yo · M · btC&DGoing 1/2Only rideOnly runner
2561P
9849.117/2·9.458/1·9.00
SmarketsSBK · -5% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
4
J: Harry Sexton(7) · T: John Joseph Hanlon · draw 0 · combo 0/20 (0%)
6yo · G · bpOnly pairing
F9052
9047.014/1·14.8512/1·13.00
SmarketsSBK · -12% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
8
J: J J Slevin · T: W J Lanigan · draw 0
5yo · G · bpDGoing 1/3Only runner
0PPP1
8545.022/1·22.9521·21.00
Betfair Exchange · -8% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
10
J: Eoin Staples(5) · T: P J Rothwell · draw 0
9yo · G · bpOnly runner
75503
8243.517/2·9.458.2·8.20
Betfair Exchange · -13% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
13
5yo · M · bt1lb below win markGoing 1/4
0P216
7541.810/1·11.479.6·9.60
Betfair Exchange · -16% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
11
8yo · M · bOnly runner
43704
7641.111/1·12.1510.5·10.50
Betfair Exchange · -14% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
9
9yo · G · btOnly runner
20974
8440.116/1·16.2012/1·13.00
Bet365 · -20% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
16
J: Joshua Halford(7) · T: Eoin Doyle · draw 0
9yo · G · btpOnly rideOnly runner
37P08
7837.922/1·22.9523·23.00
Betfair Exchange
All 29 books ▾
14
J: Daniel King · T: Eugene M O'Sullivan · draw 0
8yo · G · btOnly runner
PP0P6
7235.366/1·68.8450/1·51.00
William Hill · -26% vs fair
All 29 books ▾
Tropical ImageNon-runner
J: · T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy · draw 0
9yo · M · btp
P7625
87Withdrawn
Shantou ShowNon-runner
J: · T: Noel C Kelly · draw 0
10yo · G · btp
5P73P
95Withdrawn
Pirate IslandNon-runner
8yo · G · chtp
4P589
92Withdrawn

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 35% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the I.P.R.S. Handicap Steeplechase?

The I.P.R.S. Handicap Steeplechase is off at 17:40 on 14 August 2026 at Tramore (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 17:40 Tramore?

2m6f, Chase, 14 runners declared.

What is the going for the 17:40 Tramore?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 17:40 Tramore?

The AI top-rated runner is Mercurial Sea (score 69.4, best price 22.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 17:40 Tramore?

The market favourite is Thewaybackhome at a best price of 7.60. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Mercurial Sea.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org