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RacingAlpha

14:35 Newbury

TPT Fire Handicap Stakes

7f · Flat · Class 2 · Good To Firm · 8 runners · £30,924 · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 5th
  1. 1st
    Addison Grey (GB)
    Hector Crouch·Clive Cox
    9/2·5.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Havana Pusey (GB)
    Daniel Muscutt·John Gallagher·beaten 1.5 lengths
    25/1·26.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Scoville (GB)
    Tom Marquand·William Haggas·beaten 0.3 lengths
    5/2F·3.50
    SP
Race time
1m 22.90s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Addison Grey (GB))

Settled in the pack - pushed along and found room inside the final furlong - edged left approaching the furlong marker - hit the front close home - stayed on to win

AI top-rated Stellar Sunrise (score 59.4) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 9.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Each-way59.4/100 rating
Stellar Sunrise
11.00Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Scoville

Scoville heads into this Newbury seven-furlong Class 2 on good-to-firm ground with a progressive profile that the clock has consistently endorsed, and although narrowly behind Great Acclaim on paper, the form behind that rating looks every bit as solid. Great Acclaim, Stellar Sunrise and Addison Grey are the chief dangers, with the latter two rated level and capable of making their presence felt on ground that should suit the field broadly, but Scoville's upward curve gives reason to believe there is more to come. The selection is Scoville.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Stellar Sunrise

P J McDonald · Andrew Balding · 3yo

Top-rated of 8
score 59.4 · +1.4 clear of next best (57.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    21d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Ratings50% weight
    67strong
    OR 100 — above field median
  • Trainer20% weight
    48below average
    Andrew Balding: 10/52 winners last 14d (19%)
  • Form20% weight
    33weak
    Last 6: 5-1-3-6-0
MarketBest price 11.00 (Betfair Exchange) · 6th in the market of 8.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newbury 7f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–3)
IV 0.99
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.16
High (7–8)
IV 0.86

Today: Havana Pusey (draw 5) and Scoville (draw 6) get the bias; Addison Grey (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 147 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
16
J: Hector Crouch · T: Clive Cox · draw 7
4yo · G · gr
22539
9357.9
9/2·5.50
SP
24
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: John Gallagher · draw 5
6yo · M · b
013779
9457.6
25/1·26.00
SP
32
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 6
4yo · G · bt
04870
9652.4
5/2F·3.50
SP
48
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon · draw 8
5yo · H · bb
345453
8649.5
6/1·7.00
SP
55
J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding · draw 3
3yo · G · bpFT P
51360
10059.4
9/1·10.00
SP
63
J: Seamus Cronin(5) · T: Richard Hannon · draw 4
7yo · G · b
000010
9548.4
12/1·13.00
SP
71
5yo · G · bb
032389
10157.6
7/2·4.50
SP
87
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Stuart Williams · draw 1
4yo · G · bt
00303
8847.7
17/2·9.50
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:35 Newbury on 15 August 2026?

Addison Grey (GB) won the 14:35 Newbury at SP 5.50. Ridden by Hector Crouch. Trained by Clive Cox.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:35 Newbury?

No — the AI top pick (Stellar Sunrise) finished 5.

What were the placings in the 14:35 Newbury?

Top finishers: 1. Addison Grey (GB) (5.50), 2. Havana Pusey (GB) (26.00), 3. Scoville (GB) (3.50).

What was the winning time for the 14:35 Newbury?

The winning time was 1m 22.90s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org