14:30 Lingfield (AW)

Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes

2m · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 8 runners · £4,172 · Tuesday, 18 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (8 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Circuit Breaker

No. 1 · score 47.9 · +0.2 clear of next best · best 13/8·2.63

Drawn 4, inside the favoured middle third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus

Benvoy

10/1·11.00 Bet365 · +9% vs fair (consensus 10.11)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way44.4/100 rating

Beaune

10.00Smarkets

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Circuit BreakerAgrees with our pick

Circuit Breaker sits level with Diamond Bay at the top of the ratings but is preferred here on the strength of a progressive profile that suggests more improvement may be forthcoming over this extended trip on the Lingfield all-weather. Diamond Bay represents the most obvious threat and must be respected at the same rating, while Wise Counsellor and Roland Garros could each outrun their ratings if conditions suit. The selection comes with a note of caution given the competitive nature of the top of the field, but on balance Circuit Breaker is the one to be with.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Circuit Breaker

Mr Simon Walker · Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill · 6yo

Top-rated of 8

score 47.9 · +0.2 clear of next best (47.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
65strong
64d since last run (rusty)
Trainer20% weight
50small sample (n=5)
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill: 1/5 winners last 14d (20%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Ratings50% weight
47below average
OR 70 — highest combined rating in the field
Form20% weight
40below average
Last 6: 2-6-3-6-4

MarketBest price 2.63 (Paddy Power) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
7Further Measure
Prominent(1)
5Diamond Bay
Mid-division(2)
4Wise Counsellor 8Beaune
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(4)
1Circuit Breaker 2Benvoy 3Roland Garros 6Flamingo Rose

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Lingfield (AW) 2m

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.23).

Low (1–3)

IV 0.81

Mid (4–6)

IV 1.23

High (7–8)

IV 1.00

Today: Circuit Breaker (draw 4) and Benvoy (draw 6) get the bias; Wise Counsellor (draw 3) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 61 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	Circuit BreakerPick J: Mr Simon Walker · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill · draw 4 6yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	26364	11-02	70	—	—	47.9	9/4·3.16	13/8·2.63 Paddy Power · -17% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Paddy Power13/8·2.63Betfair Sportsbook13/8·2.63Matchbook2.6·2.60Smarkets2.6·2.60Betfair Exchange2.52·2.52 BetTom6/4·2.50 Coral6/4·2.50 Dragon Bet6/4·2.50 Bet Victor6/4·2.50 7Bet6/4·2.50 Ladbrokes6/4·2.50Virgin Bet6/4·2.50William Hill6/4·2.50 talkSPORT BET6/4·2.50 Midnite6/4·2.50 Quinn Bet6/4·2.50 SmarketsSBK6/4·2.50 SportingIndex6/4·2.50 Spreadex6/4·2.50 Star Sports6/4·2.50 Unibet6/4·2.50Bet MGM6/4·2.50BetWright6/4·2.50 Betano6/4·2.50 Betfred6/4·2.50 Boyle Sports6/4·2.50 BresBet6/4·2.50 LiveScore Bet11/8·2.38 Bet3655/4·2.25
4	Wise Counsellor J: Mr Hezekiah March(7) · T: Gary & Josh Moore · draw 3 4yo · G · bpOnly ride	33540	11-00	68	—	—	47.7	33/1·32.87	30/1·31.00 Paddy Power · -6% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Paddy Power30/1·31.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Matchbook28·28.00BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 talkSPORT BET25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 BresBet25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00Smarkets25·25.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Bet36522/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00Bet MGM20/1·21.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50
5	Diamond Bay J: Mr Henry Callan · T: Tom Ward · draw 7 8yo · G · chbOnly rideOnly runner	067542	10-12	66	—	—	45.5	7/2·4.42	10/3·4.33 Bet365 · -2% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Bet36510/3·4.33Smarkets4.1·4.10Matchbook4.1·4.10SmarketsSBK3/1·4.00 Betfair Exchange3.85·3.85 Coral11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 LiveScore Bet11/4·3.75 William Hill11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet5/2·3.50 Midnite5/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 Paddy Power5/2·3.50Bet MGM5/2·3.50BresBet5/2·3.50 SportingIndex5/2·3.50 Spreadex5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50BetTom5/2·3.50 BetWright5/2·3.50 Boyle Sports5/2·3.50 7Bet5/2·3.50 talkSPORT BET9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook9/4·3.25Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25
8	Beaune J: Miss Jessica Llewellyn(5) · T: Bernard Llewellyn · draw 1 4yo · G · bpOnly rideOnly runner	187434	10-02	56	—	—	44.4	10/1·10.75	10·10.00 Smarkets · -7% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Smarkets10·10.00Bet3659/1·10.00Matchbook10·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00Bet MGM8/1·9.00Betfred8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00 7Bet15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50talkSPORT BET15/2·8.50 Paddy Power15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Betfair Exchange4.2·4.20
2	Benvoy J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Jo Davis · draw 6 5yo · G · btOnly rideOnly runner	89737	11-00	68	—	—	44.3	9/1·10.11	10/1·11.00 Bet365 · +9% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Bet36510/1·11.00Smarkets10·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00Matchbook9.8·9.80Bet MGM8/1·9.00Betfred15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 7Bet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 BresBet7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 talkSPORT BET7/1·8.00 Paddy Power13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20
3	Roland Garros J: Mr Fletcher Yarham · T: Hayley Burton · draw 5 5yo · G · btpOnly rideOnly runner	51734	11-00	68	—	—	39.5	7/1·8.22	7·7.00 Matchbook · -15% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook7·7.00Smarkets6.8·6.807Bet11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 BresBet11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 talkSPORT BET11/2·6.50 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Betfair Exchange6.4·6.40 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Bet MGM5/1·6.00
7	Further Measure J: Mrs Charlotte Owen(7) · T: Mike Murphy · draw 2 9yo · G · bpOnly rideOnly runner	414475	10-06	60	—	—	37.8	16/1·16.44	14.5·14.50 Smarkets · -12% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Smarkets14.5·14.50Matchbook14.5·14.50SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00Bet MGM12/1·13.00Betfred12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Bet Victor11/1·12.00 talkSPORT BET11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20
6	Flamingo Rose J: Mr Morgan Tidman(7) · T: Michael Wigham · draw 8 9yo · M · grtOnly rideOnly runner	6518	10-06	60	—	—	30.9	18/1·18.96	18·18.00 Matchbook · -5% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 talkSPORT BET14/1·15.00 Paddy Power14/1·15.00Bet MGM14/1·15.00Smarkets15·15.00BresBet14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Betfair Exchange6.4·6.40

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 26% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes?

The Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes is off at 14:30 on 18 August 2026 at Lingfield (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:30 Lingfield (AW)?

2m, Class 5, Flat, 8 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:30 Lingfield (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:30 Lingfield (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Circuit Breaker (score 47.9, best price 2.63). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:30 Lingfield (AW)?

The market favourite is Circuit Breaker at a best price of 2.63.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org