15:48 Carlisle

Off in 1h 58m

North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div II)

7f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 9 runners · £3,402 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (9 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Supreme Dancer

No. 7 · score 47.6 · +6.5 clear of next best · best 5/1·5.90

Best value vs consensus

Uniter

16·16.00 Betfair Exchange · +14% vs fair (consensus 14.04)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way47.6/100 rating

Supreme Dancer

5.90Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Hey HavanaDiffers from our pick

Hey Havana heads this nine-runner Class 6 contest at Carlisle on good ground, rated narrowly ahead of Big Apple Jack and Supreme Dancer, who share a rating six pounds below, with Stoneywell a further pound back and also requiring respect. The selection's edge over a competitive field may not be enormous, but it is consistent across the board, and over seven furlongs on a track that should suit, Hey Havana has enough in hand to make that advantage count. Big Apple Jack and Supreme Dancer represent the most credible threats and cannot be dismissed lightly, while Stoneywell will be there if the principals disappoint. Hey Havana is the one to be on.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Supreme Dancer

Ethan Tindall(5) · Richard & Peter Fahey · 3yo

Top-rated of 9

score 47.6 · +6.5 clear of next best (41.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
30d since last run (fresh)
Trainer20% weight
53average
Richard & Peter Fahey: 7/34 winners last 14d (21%)
Form20% weight
48below average
Last 6: 5-7-2-8-2
Ratings50% weight
38below average
OR 57

MarketBest price 5.90 (Betfair Exchange) · 3rd in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
7Supreme Dancer
Prominent(3)
1Stoneywell 2Big Apple Jack 9Agric Ranger
Mid-division(2)
4Danrana 5Hey Havana
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(3)
3Uniter 6Tago Mago 8Our Nicola

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Carlisle 7f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).

Low (1–3)

IV 1.00

Mid (4–6)

IV 0.83

High (7–9)

IV 1.16

Today: Hey Havana (draw 7) and Tago Mago (draw 8) get the bias; Big Apple Jack (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
7	Supreme DancerPick J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 2 · combo 2/42 (5%) 3yo · G · ch	57282	9-04	57	—	—	47.6	9/2·5.27	5.9·5.90 Betfair Exchange · +12% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.9·5.90Matchbook5.9·5.90Smarkets5.8·5.80SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50Star Sports7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Paddy Power7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 BresBet7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 talkSPORT BET7/2·4.50 Unibet10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33Betfred10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33
5	Hey Havana J: Connor Beasley · T: Geoffrey Harker · draw 7 3yo · G · bvFT VOnly runner	25252	9-05	58	—	—	41.1	11/4·3.80	3.45·3.45 Matchbook · -9% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook3.45·3.45Smarkets3.4·3.40Betfair Exchange3.4·3.40 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 SmarketsSBK9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 talkSPORT BET9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.25William Hill9/4·3.25 10 Bet9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Paddy Power2/1·3.00
6	Tago Mago J: Shane Gray · T: Sam England · draw 8 · combo 2/6 (33%) 3yo · F · btOnly rideOnly runner	3876	9-05	58	—	—	40.4	50/1·47.97	50·50.00 Matchbook · +4% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook50·50.00Betfair Exchange46·46.00Smarkets46·46.00William Hill40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00talkSPORT BET40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 BresBet40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00
2	Big Apple Jack J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 5 · combo 7/74 (9%) 4yo · G · b	284254	9-09	57	—	—	39.7	9/4·3.37	3.15·3.15 Betfair Exchange · -6% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange3.15·3.15Matchbook3.15·3.15Smarkets3.1·3.10SmarketsSBK2/1·3.00 Bet36515/8·2.88 SportingIndex15/8·2.88 Spreadex15/8·2.88 Betfred15/8·2.88 Coral15/8·2.88 Star Sports15/8·2.88 Ladbrokes15/8·2.88 LiveScore Bet15/8·2.88 Quinn Bet15/8·2.88 Unibet15/8·2.88Virgin Bet15/8·2.88Betfair Sportsbook15/8·2.88Paddy Power15/8·2.88 BresBet7/4·2.75 Dragon Bet7/4·2.75 Midnite7/4·2.75 BetTom7/4·2.75 BetWright7/4·2.75 William Hill7/4·2.75 7Bet7/4·2.75 BetMGM7/4·2.75 Boyle Sports13/8·2.63 Bet Victor13/8·2.63 Betano13/8·2.63 talkSPORT BET13/8·2.63 10 Bet13/8·2.63
4	Danrana J: Harry Russell · T: Fionn McSharry · draw 1 3yo · F · bhOnly rideOnly runner	4805	9-06	59	—	—	33.4	14/1·15.21	15·15.00 Matchbook All 30 books ▾ Matchbook15·15.00Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50Smarkets13.5·13.50Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.007Bet12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 10 Bet12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 talkSPORT BET12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Bet36512/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00
3	Uniter J: Sam James · T: Denis Coakley · draw 3 3yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	867P8	9-07	60	—	—	31.9	14/1·14.04	16·16.00 Betfair Exchange · +14% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange16·16.00Matchbook16·16.00Smarkets15.5·15.50SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 BresBet11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 10 Bet11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00 talkSPORT BET11/1·12.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00
9	Agric Ranger J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4 · combo 2/15 (13%) 3yo · G · bpFT P	547570	8-09	48	—	—	29.4	80/1·78.39	70/1·71.00 7Bet · -9% vs fair All 30 books ▾ 7Bet70/1·71.00 Betano66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 BetWright66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 BresBet66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00talkSPORT BET66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00Matchbook65·65.00Smarkets60·60.00Betfair Exchange60·60.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 SmarketsSBK50/1·51.00
8	Our Nicola J: William Pyle · T: David & Nicola Barron · draw 6 · combo 0/24 (0%) 4yo · F · bOnly rideOnly runner	38005	8-12	45	—	—	29.1	33/1·33.93	48·48.00 Matchbook · +42% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook48·48.00Smarkets46·46.00Betfair Exchange46·46.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00Betfair Sportsbook30/1·31.00Paddy Power30/1·31.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Bet Victor28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 BresBet28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 talkSPORT BET28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00
1	Stoneywell J: Tom Eaves · T: Steph Hollinshead · draw 9 4yo · G · bhOnly runner	97780	9-12	60	—	—	28.6	18/1·19.89	20·20.00 Matchbook All 30 books ▾ Matchbook20·20.00Smarkets19·19.00BetWright16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.007Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 BresBet16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 talkSPORT BET16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange16·16.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 17% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div II)?

The North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div II) is off at 15:48 on 19 August 2026 at Carlisle (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:48 Carlisle?

7f, Class 6, Flat, 9 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:48 Carlisle?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:48 Carlisle?

The AI top-rated runner is Supreme Dancer (score 47.6, best price 5.90). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:48 Carlisle?

The market favourite is Big Apple Jack at a best price of 3.15. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Supreme Dancer.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org