Who won the 15:48 Carlisle on 19 August 2026?
Supreme Dancer (IRE) won the 15:48 Carlisle at SP 4.33. Ridden by Ethan Tindall. Trained by Richard & Peter Fahey.
15:48 Carlisle
North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div II)
7f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Soft · 9 runners · £3,402 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 100/30·4.33Race report
- 1stSupreme Dancer (IRE)AI top pick · 47.6Ethan Tindall·Richard & Peter Fahey100/30·4.33SP
- 2ndBig Apple Jack (GB)Billy Garritty·Michael & David Easterby·beaten 1.5 lengths5/2·3.50SP
- 3rdOur Nicola (GB)William Pyle·David & Nicola Barron·beaten 1 length33/1·34.00SP
Race time
1m 29.79s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Supreme Dancer (IRE))
“Handy early with the pace - drifted towards the near rail approaching 3f out - hit the front inside the final furlong - kept on strongly to assert at the line”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.33 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Hey Havana
Hey Havana heads this nine-runner Class 6 contest at Carlisle on good ground, rated narrowly ahead of Big Apple Jack and Supreme Dancer, who share a rating six pounds below, with Stoneywell a further pound back and also requiring respect. The selection's edge over a competitive field may not be enormous, but it is consistent across the board, and over seven furlongs on a track that should suit, Hey Havana has enough in hand to make that advantage count. Big Apple Jack and Supreme Dancer represent the most credible threats and cannot be dismissed lightly, while Stoneywell will be there if the principals disappoint. Hey Havana is the one to be on.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Supreme Dancer
Ethan Tindall(5) · Richard & Peter Fahey · 3yo
Top-rated of 9
score 47.6 · +6.5 clear of next best (41.1)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong30d since last run (fresh)
- Trainer20% weight53averageRichard & Peter Fahey: 7/34 winners last 14d (21%)
- Form20% weight48below averageLast 6: 5-7-2-8-2
- Ratings50% weight38below averageOR 57
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Carlisle 7f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.00
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.83
High (7–9)
IV 1.16
Today: Hey Havana (draw 7) and Tago Mago (draw 8) get the bias; Big Apple Jack (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 96 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 2 3yo · G · ch | 57282 | 57 | 47.6 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| 2 | 2 | J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 5 4yo · G · b | 284254 | 57 | 39.7 | 5/2·3.50 SP |
| 3 | 8 | J: William Pyle · T: David & Nicola Barron · draw 6 4yo · F · b | 38005 | 45 | 29.1 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Geoffrey Harker · draw 7 3yo · G · bvFT V | 25252 | 58 | 41.1 | 11/8F·2.38 SP |
| 5 | 3 | J: Sam James · T: Denis Coakley · draw 3 3yo · G · b | 867P8 | 60 | 31.9 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 6 | 1 | J: Tom Eaves · T: Steph Hollinshead · draw 9 4yo · G · bh | 97780 | 60 | 28.6 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 7 | 9 | J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4 3yo · G · bpFT P | 547570 | 48 | 29.4 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 8 | 4 | J: Harry Russell · T: Fionn McSharry · draw 1 3yo · F · bh | 4805 | 59 | 33.4 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 9 | 6 | J: Shane Gray · T: Sam England · draw 8 3yo · F · bt | 3876 | 58 | 40.4 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:48 Carlisle?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Supreme Dancer, won the race (AI score 47.6).
What were the placings in the 15:48 Carlisle?
Top finishers: 1. Supreme Dancer (IRE) (4.33), 2. Big Apple Jack (GB) (3.50), 3. Our Nicola (GB) (34.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:48 Carlisle?
The winning time was 1m 29.79s.
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