20:30 Kempton (AW)

Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div III)

1m · Flat · Class 4 · Standard / Slow · 8 runners · £6,281 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (9 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Rogue Defence

No. 5 · score 59.7 · +2.8 clear of next best · best 4/1·5.00

Drawn 6, inside the favoured middle third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus

Port Erin

46·46.00 Matchbook · +11% vs fair (consensus 41.37)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way59.7/100 rating

Rogue Defence

5.00Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Cavolo NeroDiffers from our pick

Cavolo Nero heads this nine-runner Kempton affair narrowly ahead of Talis Evolvere on ratings and brings strong claims over this all-weather mile on a standard-to-slow surface, where his class advantage over the bulk of the field looks meaningful. Talis Evolvere and Helm Rock are the most credible dangers, with Malachy's Wish also capable of making things interesting if running to a peak, so Cavolo Nero may need to be at his best to see them off. Confidence is medium rather than absolute, but the edge in quality points one way, and the selection is Cavolo Nero.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Rogue Defence

Billy Loughnane · Jack Jones · 3yo

Top-rated of 9

score 59.7 · +2.8 clear of next best (56.9)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
44d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
77strong
Last 6: 1-5-1
Ratings50% weight
57average
OR 85 — above field median
Trainer20% weight
38below average
Jack Jones: 2/13 winners last 14d (15%)

MarketBest price 5.00 (Matchbook) · 3rd in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
9Port Erin
Prominent(3)
4Talis Evolvere 5Rogue Defence 6Port Road
Mid-division(1)
2Malachy's Wish
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(4)
1Cavolo Nero 3Helm Rock 8White Crown Star Royale Goodnight

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Kempton (AW) 1m

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.17).

Low (1–3)

IV 1.05

Mid (4–6)

IV 1.17

High (7–9)

IV 0.80

Today: Rogue Defence (draw 6) and Malachy's Wish (draw 5) get the bias; Cavolo Nero (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 665 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	Rogue DefencePick J: Billy Loughnane · T: Jack Jones · draw 6 3yo · G · grDOnly pairing	151	9-10	85	—	—	59.7	9/2·5.27	5·5.00 Matchbook · -5% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook5·5.00Betfair Exchange4.9·4.90Smarkets4.8·4.80Spreadex7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50William Hill7/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 Paddy Power10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33 talkSPORT BET10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.337Bet10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Bet36510/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 BresBet10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Midnite3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00
1	Cavolo Nero J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Harry Eustace · draw 7 · combo 6/31 (19%) 4yo · G · bD	32341	10-04	87	—	—	56.9	3/1·3.95	3.5·3.50 Matchbook · -11% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook3.5·3.50Betfair Exchange3.45·3.45Smarkets3.4·3.40BetMGM12/5·3.40 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 SmarketsSBK9/4·3.25 Paddy Power9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook9/4·3.2510 Bet9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.25William Hill9/4·3.25 talkSPORT BET9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25
3	Helm Rock J: Ebrahim Nader · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler · draw 2 · combo 3/16 (19%) 8yo · G · btb	132674	10-00	83	—	—	56.5	17/2·9.73	8.6·8.60 Matchbook · -12% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook8.6·8.60Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20Smarkets8.2·8.207Bet7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 talkSPORT BET7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Bet3657/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 BresBet7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 BetTom13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 10 Bet13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00
2	Malachy's Wish J: William Carver · T: Jamie Osborne · draw 5 · combo 2/47 (4%) 3yo · G · bOn last winning mark	11001	10-01	84	—	—	54.2	8/1·9.13	9·9.00 Matchbook All 30 books ▾ Matchbook9·9.00Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80Smarkets8.6·8.60SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 Bet3657/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 talkSPORT BET7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 10 Bet13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 BresBet13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00BetTom6/1·7.00
—	Royale Goodnight J: Millie Wonnacott(5) · T: Harry Charlton · draw 3 4yo · F · bhOnly ride	1820	9-06	75	—	—	52.1	20/1·20.69	16/1·17.00 Paddy Power · -18% vs fair All 21 books ▾ Paddy Power16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 BresBet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00BetMGM14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00Matchbook14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange14·14.00
6	Port Road J: Tyler Heard · T: Simon Dow · draw 1 · combo 0/6 (0%) 5yo · G · grOnly runner	161804	9-08	77	—	—	46.3	22/1·23.12	22·22.00 Matchbook · -5% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook22·22.00Betfred20/1·21.00 talkSPORT BET20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Paddy Power20/1·21.00Smarkets20·20.00BresBet18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange19·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Star Sports18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Bet36516/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 Unibet14/1·15.00
4	Talis Evolvere J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 8 · combo 16/104 (15%) 6yo · G · bOnly pairing	082766	9-11	80	—	—	41.8	7/2·4.56	4.3·4.30 Matchbook · -6% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook4.3·4.30Smarkets4.2·4.20Betfair Exchange4.1·4.10 SmarketsSBK3/1·4.00 7Bet11/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75 Bet36511/4·3.75 Unibet11/4·3.75 talkSPORT BET11/4·3.75 William Hill11/4·3.75 BetTom11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Star Sports11/4·3.75 Betano11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 BresBet11/4·3.75Virgin Bet5/2·3.50BetMGM5/2·3.50 Midnite5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 Paddy Power5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50 10 Bet9/4·3.25
9	Port Erin J: Jack Doughty · T: Tony Carroll · draw 4 · combo 1/30 (3%) 6yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	09085	9-01	70	—	—	40.0	40/1·41.37	46·46.00 Matchbook · +11% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook46·46.00Bet36540/1·41.00 7Bet35/1·36.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 BresBet33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 talkSPORT BET33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Smarkets32·32.00LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Betfair Exchange27·27.00
8	White Crown Star J: Charles Bishop · T: Ian Williams · draw 9 · combo 0/9 (0%) 4yo · G · chOnly runner	33900	9-04	73	—	—	40.0	100/1·98.56	140·140.00 Matchbook · +42% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook140·140.00SmarketsSBK125/1·126.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 BetTom80/1·81.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 Star Sports80/1·81.00 Unibet80/1·81.00 Quinn Bet80/1·81.00 William Hill80/1·81.00 BetWright80/1·81.00 Betano80/1·81.00 Boyle Sports80/1·81.00 BresBet80/1·81.00 Coral80/1·81.00 Dragon Bet80/1·81.00 Ladbrokes80/1·81.00 Bet Victor80/1·81.00 talkSPORT BET80/1·81.00 Paddy Power80/1·81.00 7Bet80/1·81.00 10 Bet80/1·81.00 Betfair Exchange80·80.00Betfair Sportsbook70/1·71.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Betfred66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00Smarkets65·65.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 21–30 bookmakers per horse with the 22% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div III)?

The Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div III) is off at 20:30 on 19 August 2026 at Kempton (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 20:30 Kempton (AW)?

1m, Class 4, Flat, 8 runners declared.

What is the going for the 20:30 Kempton (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard / Slow on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 20:30 Kempton (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Rogue Defence (score 59.7, best price 5.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 20:30 Kempton (AW)?

The market favourite is Cavolo Nero at a best price of 3.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Rogue Defence.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org