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Next · 5h 12m19:08Worcester

16:45 York

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

5f · Flat · Class 2 · Good · 19 runners · £51,540 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 10 · score 68.0 · +4.2 clear of next best · best 12/1·14.00

Drawn 2, inside the favoured low third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus
15·15.00 Matchbook · +25% vs fair (consensus 12.05)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way68.0/100 rating
Zain Primus
14.00Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Naana's ShadowDiffers from our pick

Naana's Shadow arrives here on a progressive profile and with a fitness edge over some of the more exposed rivals at the top of the ratings, which makes a compelling case for siding with her despite sitting a pound behind the top-rated Revival Power and level with Poatan on 98. Revival Power and Poatan are the obvious dangers in a deep nineteen-runner field over this sharp five furlongs at York, and Manatee Mehmas, only a pound adrift, cannot be dismissed lightly on good ground either. The confidence here is tempered by the competitive nature of the contest and the narrowness of the ratings gaps throughout, but the progressive angle is the decisive factor. Naana's Shadow is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Zain Primus

Ray Dawson · John Butler · 3yo

Top-rated of 19
score 68.0 · +4.2 clear of next best (63.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Form20% weight
    93very strong
    Last 6: 3-1-1
  • Trainer20% weight
    68strong
    John Butler: 7/26 winners last 14d (27%)
  • Freshness10% weight
    65strong
    92d since last run (rusty)
  • Ratings50% weight
    59average
    OR 88
MarketBest price 14.00 (Matchbook) · 5th in the market of 19.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 4 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — York 5f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.37).

Low (1–7)
IV 1.37
Mid (8–13)
IV 0.90
High (14–19)
IV 0.69

Today: Zain Primus (draw 2) and Miss Yechance (draw 7) get the bias; Poatan (draw 14) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 137 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
10
J: Ray Dawson · T: John Butler · draw 2 · combo 1/6 (17%)
3yo · C · brDOnly runner
311
8868.014/1·15.6014·14.00
Matchbook · -10% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
2
J: David Egan · T: George Scott · draw 14 · combo 2/6 (33%)
3yo · G · bClass dropOnly pairing
35133
9963.814/1·15.6015·15.00
Betfair Exchange · -4% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
1
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Katie Scott · draw 15
3yo · F · grC&DGoing 2/2Only runner
131191
10262.36/1·7.097.6·7.60
Matchbook · +7% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
8
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: K. R. Burke · draw 7 · combo 4/32 (13%)
3yo · F · chOnly ride
154273
9060.410/1·11.3410·10.00
Matchbook · -12% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
4
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 11 · combo 0/5 (0%)
3yo · G · bOnly pairing
100263
9458.122/1·24.1023·23.00
Matchbook · -5% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
6
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 13 · combo 16/139 (12%)
3yo · G · chtFT T
14834
9257.811/1·12.0515·15.00
Matchbook · +25% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
5
J: Oliver Stammers · T: Grant Tuer · draw 9 · combo 6/54 (11%)
3yo · G · bDGoing 1/3Only rideOnly runner
831265
9456.610/1·11.3410·10.00
Smarkets · -12% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
9
J: Jason Hart · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 19 · combo 3/12 (25%)
3yo · G · bDOnly pairing
31102
8954.350/1·48.2148·48.00
Matchbook
All 30 books ▾
17
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 16 · combo 3/30 (10%)
3yo · F · grDOnly runner
13152
8153.722/1·24.1018/1·19.00
William Hill · -21% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
11
J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: K. R. Burke · draw 10
3yo · F · bvFT VOnly pairing
52087
8653.233/1·32.6134·34.00
Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
16
J: Cam Hardie · T: Michael Dods · draw 8
3yo · G · bDGoing 1/4Only runner
031535
8351.950/1·58.1365·65.00
Matchbook · +12% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
14
J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 5 · combo 6/76 (8%)
3yo · F · b
114350
8450.412/1·12.7611·11.00
Matchbook · -14% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
7
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 1 · combo 20/131 (15%)
3yo · G · btFT T
18160
9248.814/1·14.1814·14.00
Betfair Exchange
All 30 books ▾
19
J: Connor Planas · T: Gemma Tutty · draw 6
3yo · F · gOnly rideOnly runner
217260
7946.850/1·48.2160·60.00
Matchbook · +25% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
13
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Andrew Balding · draw 12
3yo · G · bvFT VOnly pairing
83060
8446.816/1·17.0117·17.00
Matchbook
All 30 books ▾
12
J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Ian Williams · draw 4
3yo · G · bDGoing 2/4Only runner
401107
8546.3100/1·94.99150·150.00
Matchbook · +58% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
3
J: Colin Keane · T: Tim Easterby · draw 18
3yo · F · chClass dropOnly pairing
15700
9545.933/1·32.6140·40.00
Matchbook · +23% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
18
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 17 · combo 5/112 (4%)
3yo · C · bOnly ride
900047
8042.7100/1·114.84170·170.00
Smarkets · +48% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
15
J: Luke Morris · T: Michael Keady · draw 3
3yo · G · bOnly pairing
98004
8441.422/1·24.1019·19.00
Matchbook · -21% vs fair
All 30 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 42% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)?

The Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) is off at 16:45 on 19 August 2026 at York (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:45 York?

5f, Class 2, Flat, 19 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:45 York?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:45 York?

The AI top-rated runner is Zain Primus (score 68.0, best price 14.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:45 York?

The market favourite is Naana's Shadow at a best price of 7.60. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Zain Primus.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org