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Next · 5h 13m19:08Worcester

17:20 York

Sky Bet Nursery Handicap Stakes

6f · Flat · Class 2 · Good · 20 runners · £51,540 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Compare all prices

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 2 · score 72.8 · +2.7 clear of next best · best 17/2·9.40

Drawn 5, inside the favoured low third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus
46·46.00 Matchbook · +22% vs fair (consensus 37.83)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way72.8/100 rating
Havana Sprite
9.40Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Crystal QueenDiffers from our pick

Crystal Queen shares the top of the ratings alongside Persian Spring and Sovereign Glory, but it is her progressive profile that edges the case in her favour on this good ground over six furlongs at York, suggesting there may be more to come from her than the bare figure implies. Persian Spring and Sovereign Glory are the most obvious dangers at the same rating, while Savage Mariner, three pounds behind, cannot be entirely dismissed in a competitive 22-runner Class 2 field. The confidence is measured rather than absolute, yet the upward curve Crystal Queen has shown makes her the preferred option. Crystal Queen is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Havana Sprite

Hector Crouch · James Tate · 2yo

Top-rated of 22
score 72.8 · +2.7 clear of next best (70.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    18d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    93very strong
    Last 6: 4-2-1-1-1
  • Trainer20% weight
    68strong
    James Tate: 4/15 winners last 14d (27%)
  • Ratings50% weight
    61average
    OR 92 — above field median
MarketBest price 9.40 (Matchbook) · 4th in the market of 22.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 7 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — York 6f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.37).

Low (1–8)
IV 1.37
Mid (9–15)
IV 0.90
High (16–22)
IV 0.69

Today: Havana Sprite (draw 5) and Ruler's Pride (draw 8) get the bias; Brandenburg (draw 21) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 137 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
2
J: Hector Crouch · T: James Tate · draw 5 · combo 4/15 (27%)
2yo · F · grDGoing 1/2Only runner
42111
9272.810/1·10.919.4·9.40
Matchbook · -14% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
22
J: Luke Morris · T: Ann Duffield · draw 21
2yo · C · bDOnly runner
0121
7570.240/1·37.8332·32.00
Matchbook · -15% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
13
J: Jason Hart · T: Jennie Candlish · draw 13
2yo · C · bDOnly runner
314
8369.880/1·74.2195·95.00
Matchbook · +28% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
18
J: Shane Foley · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 19
2yo · C · b
5723
7959.540/1·42.2044·44.00
Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
8
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Charles Hills · draw 16
2yo · C · b
3104
8659.528/1·27.6524·24.00
Matchbook · -13% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
5
J: Ryan Moore · T: Ben Haslam · draw 20
2yo · C · bOnly runner
4312
8759.07/1·8.007.8·7.80
Smarkets · -2% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
15
2yo · G · bOn last winning markDOnly runner
52331
8057.950/1·49.4842·42.00
Betfair Exchange · -15% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
1
J: James Doyle · T: K. R. Burke · draw 8 · combo 4/16 (25%)
2yo · C · bClass dropOnly pairing
107
9356.320/1·21.8319·19.00
Matchbook · -13% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
19
2yo · C · chpFT POnly pairing
350
7756.250/1·49.4860·60.00
Matchbook · +21% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
3
J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 22 · combo 6/52 (12%)
2yo · F · bClass drop
210
8955.912/1·13.1013·13.00
Betfair Exchange
All 30 books ▾
10
J: Neil Callan · T: William Knight · draw 9 · combo 3/10 (30%)
2yo · C · bpFT PDOnly runner
412
8454.025/1·24.7421·21.00
Matchbook · -15% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
16
J: David Egan · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy · draw 6 · combo 3/42 (7%)
2yo · C · chOn last winning markDGoing 1/2Only runner
6221
7952.517/2·9.468·8.00
Betfair Exchange · -15% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
20
J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 10 · combo 6/76 (8%)
2yo · F · bGoing 1/2
414
7652.540/1·37.8346·46.00
Matchbook · +22% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
14
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding · draw 2 · combo 19/96 (20%)
2yo · C · bpFT P
4427
8352.37/1·8.006.6·6.60
Betfair Exchange · -17% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
11
J: Jamie Spencer · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 12
2yo · G · bDOnly pairing
14
8451.740/1·37.8336·36.00
Betfair Exchange · -5% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
4
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 11 · combo 16/120 (13%)
2yo · C · btFT T
106
8951.525/1·24.7421·21.00
Betfair Exchange · -15% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
17
J: Oliver Carmichael(7) · T: Eve Johnson Houghton · draw 7 · combo 3/20 (15%)
2yo · G · grDOnly rideOnly runner
54156
7949.928/1·27.6525·25.00
Matchbook · -10% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
9
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer · draw 17 · combo 9/47 (19%)
2yo · C · bClass dropGoing 1/2Only pairing
1050
8549.140/1·42.2060·60.00
Matchbook · +42% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
J: Joe Leavy · T: Richard Hannon · draw 18 · combo 9/76 (12%)
2yo · F · bClass dropOnly ride
2915
8448.250/1·49.4842·42.00
Betfair Exchange · -15% vs fair
All 19 books ▾
21
J: Cam Hardie · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 1 · combo 1/25 (4%)
2yo · G · chOnly pairing
658
7547.750/1·49.4855·55.00
Matchbook · +11% vs fair
All 30 books ▾
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon · draw 4 · combo 12/71 (17%)
2yo · C · bOnly ride
5100
8646.328/1·27.6520/1·21.00
Betfred · -24% vs fair
All 19 books ▾
6
J: Colin Keane · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 14
2yo · G · bbFT BOnly pairing
200
8743.650/1·49.4865·65.00
Matchbook · +31% vs fair
All 30 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 19–30 bookmakers per horse with the 46% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Sky Bet Nursery Handicap Stakes?

The Sky Bet Nursery Handicap Stakes is off at 17:20 on 19 August 2026 at York (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 17:20 York?

6f, Class 2, Flat, 20 runners declared.

What is the going for the 17:20 York?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 17:20 York?

The AI top-rated runner is Havana Sprite (score 72.8, best price 9.40). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 17:20 York?

The market favourite is The Dancing Pirate at a best price of 6.60. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Havana Sprite.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org