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RacingAlpha

14:35 Newmarket (July)

Van Buck 50th Anniversary Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)

1m · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Firm · 6 runners · £6,281 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd
  1. 1st
    Tie A Navyribbon (GB)
    Josephine Gordon·William Stone
    100/30·4.33
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Missouri Waltz (IRE)AI top pick · 38.5
    Jamie Spencer·Adrian Keatley·beaten 1.25 lengths
    6/4F·2.50
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Highland Girl (GB)
    Rob Hornby·Charlie Johnston·beaten 5.5 lengths
    15/2·8.50
    SP
Race time
1m 40.43s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Tie A Navyribbon (GB))

“Settled on the near flank early - went in front - pushed along with 2f left before being overtaken - fought back to regain command inside the last furlong - held on for the win”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Why the model rates this top

Missouri Waltz

Jamie Spencer · Adrian Keatley · 2yo

Top-rated of 6
score 38.5 · +10.5 clear of next best (28.0)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Form20% weight
    100very strong
    Last 6: 1
  • Freshness10% weight
    85very strong
    29d since last run (fresh)
  • Trainer20% weight
    50average
    Adrian Keatley: 2/10 winners last 14d (20%)
  • Ratings50% weight
    0weak
    no Racing Post ratings on file
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newmarket (July) 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–2)
IV 0.91
Mid (3–4)
IV 1.06
High (5–6)
IV 1.05

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 167 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
14
Tie A Navyribbon
J: Josephine Gordon · T: William Stone · draw 3
2yo · F · b
36
—13.7
100/30·4.33
SP
21
Missouri Waltz
J: Jamie Spencer · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 1
2yo · F · ch
1
—38.5
6/4F·2.50
SP
32
Highland Girl
J: Rob Hornby · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 5
2yo · F · b
0
—17.0
15/2·8.50
SP
43
Mandolin Rain
J: Jack Mitchell · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 6
2yo · F · b
4
—28.0
100/30·4.33
SP
56
Voyager One
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Michael Bell · draw 4
2yo · F · b
——17.5
18/1·19.00
SP
65
Veloria
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott · draw 2
2yo · F · b
——24.5
10/1·11.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:35 Newmarket (July) on 20 August 2026?

Tie A Navyribbon (GB) won the 14:35 Newmarket (July) at SP 4.33. Ridden by Josephine Gordon. Trained by William Stone.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:35 Newmarket (July)?

No — the AI top pick (Missouri Waltz) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 14:35 Newmarket (July)?

Top finishers: 1. Tie A Navyribbon (GB) (4.33), 2. Missouri Waltz (IRE) (2.50), 3. Highland Girl (GB) (8.50).

What was the winning time for the 14:35 Newmarket (July)?

The winning time was 1m 40.43s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org