14:35 Newmarket (July)

Van Buck 50th Anniversary Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)

1m · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Firm · 6 runners · £6,281 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Missouri Waltz

No. 1 · score 38.5 · +10.5 clear of next best · best 2/1·3.05

Best value vs consensus

Highland Girl

8.4·8.40 Matchbook · +8% vs fair (consensus 7.80)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Missouri Waltz

Jamie Spencer · Adrian Keatley · 2yo

Top-rated of 6

score 38.5 · +10.5 clear of next best (28.0)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Form20% weight
100very strong
Last 6: 1
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
29d since last run (fresh)
Trainer20% weight
50average
Adrian Keatley: 2/10 winners last 14d (20%)
Ratings50% weight
0weak
no Racing Post ratings on file

MarketBest price 3.05 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
1Missouri Waltz
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(1)
2Highland Girl
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(4)
3Mandolin Rain 4Tie A Navyribbon 5Veloria 6Voyager One

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newmarket (July) 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–2)

IV 0.91

Mid (3–4)

IV 1.06

High (5–6)

IV 1.05

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 167 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	Missouri WaltzPick J: Jamie Spencer · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 1 2yo · F · chOnly runner	1	9-06	—	—	—	38.5	9/4·3.21	3.05·3.05 Matchbook · -5% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook3.05·3.05Betfair Exchange3.05·3.05Smarkets3·3.007Bet19/10·2.90 Boyle Sports15/8·2.88 10 Bet15/8·2.88 Bet Victor15/8·2.88 Bet36515/8·2.88 BetWright15/8·2.88 Star Sports15/8·2.88Betfair Sportsbook15/8·2.88Paddy Power15/8·2.88 talkSPORT BET15/8·2.88 Betano15/8·2.88 BresBet15/8·2.88 Coral15/8·2.88 Dragon Bet15/8·2.88 Ladbrokes15/8·2.88 Midnite15/8·2.88 Quinn Bet15/8·2.88 SportingIndex15/8·2.88 Spreadex15/8·2.88 SmarketsSBK9/5·2.80 Unibet7/4·2.75Virgin Bet7/4·2.75BetMGM7/4·2.75 BetTom7/4·2.75 Betfred7/4·2.75 William Hill7/4·2.75 LiveScore Bet7/4·2.75
3	Mandolin Rain J: Jack Mitchell · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 6 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	4	9-02	—	—	—	28.0	6/1·6.90	6/1·7.00 Bet365 All 30 books ▾ Bet3656/1·7.00Matchbook6.8·6.80Bet Victor11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 talkSPORT BET11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 Betfair Exchange6.4·6.40Smarkets6.4·6.40Midnite5/1·6.00 Paddy Power5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.0010 Bet5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 BresBet5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00BetMGM9/2·5.50
5	Veloria J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott · draw 2 · combo 5/45 (11%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	24.5	9/1·10.02	9.8·9.80 Matchbook · -2% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook9.8·9.80Bet Victor17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 talkSPORT BET17/2·9.50 Paddy Power17/2·9.50 Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40Smarkets9.2·9.20BetMGM8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 Betfred8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 BresBet8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00William Hill8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Bet36515/2·8.50
6	Voyager One J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Michael Bell · draw 4 2yo · F · bOnly runner	—	9-02	—	—	—	17.5	25/1·25.61	25/1·26.00 Betano · +2% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betano25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 talkSPORT BET25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Matchbook25·25.00Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 BresBet22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00William Hill22/1·23.00 Betfair Exchange22·22.00Smarkets22·22.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Bet36518/1·19.00
2	Highland Girl J: Rob Hornby · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 5 · combo 2/12 (17%) 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly pairing	0	9-02	—	—	—	17.0	7/1·7.80	8.4·8.40 Matchbook · +8% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook8.4·8.40Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00Smarkets8·8.00Bet36513/2·7.50 Star Sports6/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Midnite6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 talkSPORT BET6/1·7.00 10 Bet6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Paddy Power11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50
4	Tie A Navyribbon J: Josephine Gordon · T: William Stone · draw 3 · combo 0/5 (0%) 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly ride	36	9-02	—	—	—	13.7	5/2·3.62	5/2·3.50 BetMGM · -3% vs fair All 30 books ▾ BetMGM5/2·3.50Matchbook3.45·3.45SmarketsSBK12/5·3.40Smarkets3.4·3.40Betfair Exchange3.35·3.35 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 talkSPORT BET9/4·3.25 William Hill9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.2510 Bet9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 Paddy Power9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 11% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Van Buck 50th Anniversary Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)?

The Van Buck 50th Anniversary Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race) is off at 14:35 on 20 August 2026 at Newmarket (July) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:35 Newmarket (July)?

1m, Class 3, Flat, 6 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:35 Newmarket (July)?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:35 Newmarket (July)?

The AI top-rated runner is Missouri Waltz (score 38.5, best price 3.05). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:35 Newmarket (July)?

The market favourite is Missouri Waltz at a best price of 3.05.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org