15:45 Newmarket (July)

National Stud Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

1m4f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £9,160 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Be Patient

No. 5 · score 72.6 · +4.3 clear of next best · best 7/2·4.60

Drawn 4, inside the favoured middle third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus

No book currently stands out from the market consensus in this race. Prices refresh every few minutes.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Astro KingDiffers from our pick

Astro King heads this six-runner Class 3 contest at Newmarket's July course on a rating narrowly ahead of Tycoon, and the step up to twelve furlongs on good-to-firm ground looks well suited to a horse of his profile. Tycoon represents the most obvious threat and will need to be watched throughout, with Race To The Stars and First Officer also capable of making their presence felt if the principals underperform. The confidence is medium rather than absolute, but on ratings and the conditions on offer, Astro King is the one to be with.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Be Patient

Jamie Spencer · Edward Bethell · 3yo

Top-rated of 6

score 72.6 · +4.3 clear of next best (68.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
90very strong
Edward Bethell: 9/25 winners last 14d (36%)
Form20% weight
87very strong
Last 6: 3-1-1-2
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
32d since last run (fresh)
Ratings50% weight
57average
OR 86

MarketBest price 4.60 (Matchbook) · 3rd in the market of 6.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
4Round The Table
Prominent(1)
6First Officer
Mid-division(2)
1Astro King Tycoon
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(2)
3Race To The Stars 5Be Patient

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newmarket (July) 1m4f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.30).

Low (1–2)

IV 0.91

Mid (3–4)

IV 1.30

High (5–6)

IV 0.82

Today: Be Patient (draw 4) and Astro King (draw 3) get the bias; Race To The Stars (draw 6) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 59 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	Be PatientPick J: Jamie Spencer · T: Edward Bethell · draw 4 3yo · C · bGoing 1/2Only runner	3112	8-12	86	—	—	72.6	4/1·4.77	4.6·4.60 Matchbook · -4% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook4.6·4.60Smarkets4.4·4.40Betfair Exchange4.4·4.40 SmarketsSBK16/5·4.20 Bet3653/1·4.00 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 Midnite11/4·3.75 Star Sports11/4·3.75 Betano11/4·3.75 Paddy Power11/4·3.75 10 Bet11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75 7Bet11/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 BetMGM11/4·3.75 BetTom11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 BresBet11/4·3.75 William Hill11/4·3.75 talkSPORT BET11/4·3.75 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50
3	Race To The Stars J: Toby Moore(7) · T: Charlie Appleby · draw 6 4yo · G · chOnly runner	142	9-10	89	—	—	68.3	3/1·4.13	3.65·3.65 Matchbook · -12% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook3.65·3.65Smarkets3.65·3.65Betfair Exchange3.55·3.55 SmarketsSBK5/2·3.50 BetWright9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.25William Hill9/4·3.25 talkSPORT BET9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook9/4·3.25Paddy Power9/4·3.25 10 Bet9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 BetMGM2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00
4	Round The Table J: Jack Mitchell · T: Tom Clover · draw 5 · combo 0/19 (0%) 3yo · C · btFT TOnly runner	511	8-13	87	—	—	64.7	11/4·3.75	2/1·3.00 William Hill · -20% vs fair All 30 books ▾ William Hill2/1·3.00 talkSPORT BET2/1·3.00 Bet Victor2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00 Boyle Sports2/1·3.00 Unibet2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 Star Sports2/1·3.00 10 Bet2/1·3.00 BetTom2/1·3.00 Betano2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00Matchbook2.98·2.98Smarkets2.96·2.96Betfair Exchange2.94·2.94 7Bet19/10·2.90 Paddy Power15/8·2.88 LiveScore Bet15/8·2.88Virgin Bet15/8·2.88Dragon Bet15/8·2.88 Spreadex15/8·2.88 SportingIndex15/8·2.88Betfair Sportsbook15/8·2.88Bet36515/8·2.88 BetMGM15/8·2.88 BetWright15/8·2.88 BresBet15/8·2.88 Midnite15/8·2.88 SmarketsSBK9/5·2.80
6	First Officer J: Sorin Moldoveanu(7) · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam · draw 1 · combo 0/5 (0%) 7yo · G · bOnly ride	35224	8-12	77	—	—	58.0	17/2·9.54	8·8.00 Matchbook · -16% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook8·8.00Betfair Exchange7.8·7.80 Bet36513/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 BresBet13/2·7.50 10 Bet13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 talkSPORT BET13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50Smarkets7.4·7.40SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Midnite6/1·7.00
—	Tycoon J: Darragh Keenan · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy · draw 2 4yo · G · bOnly runner	53032	10-01	94	—	—	55.7	13/2·7.63	10.5·10.50 Betfair Exchange · +38% vs fair All 21 books ▾ Betfair Exchange10.5·10.50 Bet3656/1·7.00 7Bet11/2·6.50 BresBet11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 Paddy Power5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Matchbook4.1·4.10
1	Astro King J: Ebrahim Nader · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler · draw 3 · combo 3/19 (16%) 9yo · G · bClass dropOnly rideOnly runner	90005	10-04	97	—	—	55.4	20/1·21.63	17.5·17.50 Matchbook · -19% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook17.5·17.50Betfred16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange17·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00Smarkets17·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 BresBet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00William Hill16/1·17.00 talkSPORT BET16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 21–30 bookmakers per horse with the 27% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the National Stud Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)?

The National Stud Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race) is off at 15:45 on 20 August 2026 at Newmarket (July) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:45 Newmarket (July)?

1m4f, Class 3, Flat, 5 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:45 Newmarket (July)?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:45 Newmarket (July)?

The AI top-rated runner is Be Patient (score 72.6, best price 4.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:45 Newmarket (July)?

The market favourite is Round The Table at a best price of 3.00. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Be Patient.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org