19:36 Stratford

Happy Birthday Sue Handicap Steeple Chase

3m3½f · Chase · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 6 runners · £4,040 · Thursday, 20 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Winning Paddy

No. 2 · score 68.6 · +1.8 clear of next best · best 8/1·9.00

Best value vs consensus

Flashy Boy

5/1·6.00 Bet365 · +6% vs fair (consensus 5.67)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Glenmalure FlyerDiffers from our pick

Glenmalure Flyer heads this Stratford Class 5 contest over an extended three and a half miles on good to firm ground narrowly ahead of the chasing pack on our assessments, and the step up in trip looks well suited to a stayer of his profile. Illogical Logic, Winning Paddy and Yes And Yes represent the most credible opposition, separated by just a handful of points between them, and one of that trio could make a race of it if Glenmalure Flyer meets any trouble in running over such a searching distance. The selection's overall edge in class and ability, however, makes a compelling case for him to get the job done, and Glenmalure Flyer is the one to be on.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Winning Paddy

Richie McLernon · Alexandra Dunn · 8yo

Top-rated of 6

score 68.6 · +1.8 clear of next best (66.8)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100small sample (n=1)
Alexandra Dunn: 1/1 winners last 14d (100%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
48d since last run (fresh)
Ratings50% weight
61average
OR 92 — above field median
Form20% weight
47below average
Last 6: 5-7-1-5-4

MarketBest price 9.00 (Matchbook) · 5th in the market of 6.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(2)
2Winning Paddy 6The Kings Soldier
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
1Glenmalure Flyer 3Yes And Yes
Unknown(2)
4Illogical Logic 5Flashy Boy

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Winning PaddyPick J: Richie McLernon · T: Alexandra Dunn · draw 0 8yo · G · brpOnly rideOnly runner	57154	11-06	92	—	—	68.6	8/1·9.07	9·9.00 Matchbook All 30 books ▾ Matchbook9·9.00Bet3658/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange8.6·8.60 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 Paddy Power15/2·8.50Smarkets8.4·8.40Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 10 Bet7/1·8.00 7Bet7/1·8.00 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 BresBet13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50talkSPORT BET13/2·7.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 Unibet6/1·7.00
1	Glenmalure Flyer J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton · draw 0 · combo 50/141 (35%) 8yo · M · baybrowntClass drop	35113	12-00	100	—	—	66.8	10/3·4.25	4.1·4.10 Matchbook · -4% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook4.1·4.10Spreadex3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Betfair Exchange3.95·3.95Smarkets3.85·3.85Betfred11/4·3.75 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 Unibet11/4·3.75 BresBet11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 10 Bet11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75 Midnite11/4·3.75 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 SmarketsSBK11/4·3.75 Star Sports11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook11/4·3.75Paddy Power11/4·3.75 7Bet11/4·3.75 BetMGM11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50talkSPORT BET5/2·3.50 Bet Victor5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50 BetTom5/2·3.50 Betano5/2·3.50 William Hill9/4·3.25
3	Yes And Yes J: Lee Edwards · T: Belinda Clarke · draw 0 · combo 1/5 (20%) 9yo · G · grOnly rideOnly runner	7F511	11-04	90	—	—	59.9	11/4·3.68	5/2·3.50 10 Bet · -5% vs fair All 30 books ▾ 10 Bet5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50Matchbook3.35·3.35Smarkets3.3·3.30Betfair Exchange3.3·3.30 Betano9/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 SmarketsSBK9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 BetTom2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Paddy Power2/1·3.00 7Bet19/10·2.90 talkSPORT BET15/8·2.88 BetWright15/8·2.87 Dragon Bet15/8·2.87 William Hill13/8·2.62
6	The Kings Soldier J: Oscar Palmer(7) · T: Tracey Leeson · draw 0 5yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	46335	10-02	71	—	—	50.9	11/1·12.46	12/1·13.00 Bet365 · +4% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Bet36512/1·13.00Matchbook12.5·12.50William Hill11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 Paddy Power11/1·12.00Smarkets12·12.00Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50 talkSPORT BET10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 BresBet10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Unibet9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Betano9/1·10.00
4	Illogical Logic J: Jack Tudor · T: Christian Williams · draw 0 · combo 1/21 (5%) 8yo · G · chp	346P5	10-09	81	—	—	50.3	7/1·7.93	7.8·7.80 Matchbook · -2% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook7.8·7.80Virgin Bet13/2·7.50SportingIndex13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50Smarkets7.4·7.4010 Bet6/1·7.00 7Bet6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Midnite6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 talkSPORT BET6/1·7.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 Betfair Exchange5.9·5.90
5	Flashy Boy J: Charlie Price · T: Robbie Llewellyn · draw 0 9yo · G · btOnly rideOnly runner	P1P45	10-02	73	—	—	49.9	9/2·5.67	5/1·6.00 Bet365 · +6% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Bet3655/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00Matchbook5.6·5.60Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 BresBet9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50Smarkets5.4·5.40Betfair Exchange5.4·5.40 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.007Bet4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 talkSPORT BET7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 Unibet3/1·4.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 13% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Happy Birthday Sue Handicap Steeple Chase?

The Happy Birthday Sue Handicap Steeple Chase is off at 19:36 on 20 August 2026 at Stratford (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 19:36 Stratford?

3m3½f, Class 5, Chase, 6 runners declared.

What is the going for the 19:36 Stratford?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 19:36 Stratford?

The AI top-rated runner is Winning Paddy (score 68.6, best price 9.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 19:36 Stratford?

The market favourite is Yes And Yes at a best price of 3.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Winning Paddy.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org