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RacingAlpha

LNAA Critical Care Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race)

1m · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 10 runners · £5,400 · Sunday, 16 August 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 2/11F·1.18
  1. 1st
    Palladas (GB)AI top pick · 44.5
    Billy Loughnane·Charlie Appleby
    2/11F·1.18
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Mercantile (GB)
    Ebrahim Nader·Daniel & Claire Kubler·beaten 2.5 lengths
    22/1·23.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Star Of The Desert (USA)
    Daniel Muscutt·Joey Ramsden·beaten 3.5 lengths
    10/1·11.00
    SP
Race time
1m 41.53s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Palladas (GB))

Handy on the wide side - driven to the front inside final 2f - shaken up with a furlong left - found more to go clear in the last 110yds - won comfortably

Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.18 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Why the model rates this top

Palladas

Billy Loughnane · Charlie Appleby · 3yo

Top-rated of 10
score 44.5 · +13.0 clear of next best (31.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    100very strong
    Charlie Appleby: 11/24 winners last 14d (46%)
  • Form20% weight
    100very strong
    Last 6: 1
  • Freshness10% weight
    45below average
    200d since last run (long absence)
  • Ratings50% weight
    0weak
    no Racing Post ratings on file
MarketBest price 1.32 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)
IV 0.96
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.04
High (9–11)
IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
11
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby · draw 9
3yo · C · ch
1
44.5
2/11F·1.18
SP
27
3yo · G · b
31.5
22/1·23.00
SP
39
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Joey Ramsden · draw 7
3yo · G · b
24
19.7
10/1·11.00
SP
48
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 8
3yo · C · b
5
23.5
25/1·26.00
SP
55
3yo · G · b
44
22.0
14/1·15.00
SP
64
J: Rob Hornby · T: Andrew Balding · draw 6
3yo · C · ch
9
12.7
9/2·5.50
SP
710
J: David Probert · T: Ian Williams · draw 10
3yo · C · ch
66
21.0
300/1·301.00
SP
82
J: Dale Swift · T: Seb Spencer · draw 2
4yo · G · b
87
11.2
250/1·251.00
SP
96
J: Andrew Elliott · T: Simon Whitaker · draw 5
3yo · G · b
0
8.5
150/1·151.00
SP
103
J: Faye McManoman · T: Brian Rothwell · draw 3
4yo · G · ch
9
7.7
500/1·501.00
SP
J: Non Runner · T: Brian Ellison · draw 11
3yo · F · ch
22
28.6

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:35 Southwell (AW) on 16 August 2026?

Palladas (GB) won the 14:35 Southwell (AW) at SP 1.18. Ridden by Billy Loughnane. Trained by Charlie Appleby.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:35 Southwell (AW)?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Palladas, won the race (AI score 44.5).

What were the placings in the 14:35 Southwell (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Palladas (GB) (1.18), 2. Mercantile (GB) (23.00), 3. Star Of The Desert (USA) (11.00).

What was the winning time for the 14:35 Southwell (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 41.53s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org