14:00 Newmarket (July)

Racing Welfare Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

7f · Flat · Class 3 · Good To Firm · 7 runners · £6,185 · Friday, 21 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 7-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Beguiled

No. 1 · score 32.0 · +4.5 clear of next best · best 8/11·1.73

Best value vs consensus

Give Me A Bow

100/1·101.00 7Bet · +3% vs fair (consensus 97.89)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way27.5/100 rating

Late Night Show

7.40Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Beguiled

Billy Loughnane · John & Thady Gosden · 2yo

Top-rated of 7

score 32.0 · +4.5 clear of next best (27.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
22d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
60average
Last 6: 3
Trainer20% weight
50average
John & Thady Gosden: 4/20 winners last 14d (20%)
Ratings50% weight
0weak
no Racing Post ratings on file

MarketBest price 1.73 (Bet365) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(1)
3Jessica
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
1Beguiled 2Give Me A Bow
Unknown(4)
4Late Night Show 5Show Me Glory 6Woollahra 7Zirconic

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newmarket (July) 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)

IV 0.91

Mid (4–5)

IV 1.06

High (6–7)

IV 1.05

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 167 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	BeguiledPick J: Billy Loughnane · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 7 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly runner	3	9-02	—	—	—	32.0	EVS·1.96	8/11·1.73 Bet365 · -12% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Bet3658/11·1.73Smarkets1.71·1.71Bet Victor4/6·1.67 Betano4/6·1.67 Boyle Sports4/6·1.67 Coral4/6·1.67 Ladbrokes4/6·1.67 Quinn Bet4/6·1.67 SmarketsSBK4/6·1.67 SportingIndex4/6·1.67 Spreadex4/6·1.67 William Hill4/6·1.67 BetTom8/13·1.62 BetWright8/13·1.62 Betfred8/13·1.62 BresBet8/13·1.62 Dragon Bet8/13·1.62 7Bet8/13·1.62 LiveScore Bet8/13·1.62 Midnite8/13·1.62 Star Sports8/13·1.62Virgin Bet8/13·1.62Betfair Exchange1.6·1.60Matchbook1.6·1.60BetMGM4/7·1.57 Unibet4/7·1.57Betfair Sportsbook4/7·1.57Paddy Power4/7·1.57
4	Late Night Show J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke · draw 5 · combo 5/28 (18%) 2yo · F · chOnly runner	—	9-02	—	—	—	27.5	6/1·7.25	7.4·7.40 Matchbook · +2% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Matchbook7.4·7.40Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 7Bet5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 BresBet5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Bet3659/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50Smarkets5.4·5.40SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00
5	Show Me Glory J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding · draw 1 · combo 5/36 (14%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	21.5	9/1·10.27	8/1·9.00 Paddy Power · -12% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Paddy Power8/1·9.00Matchbook8.8·8.80Betfair Exchange8.6·8.60 Betano15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50William Hill15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Bet3657/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00Smarkets7.8·7.80SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50
3	Jessica J: Hector Crouch · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy · draw 2 2yo · F · bOnly runner	5	9-02	—	—	—	20.0	11/1·12.09	10/1·11.00 Bet Victor · -9% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00Matchbook10.5·10.50Smarkets10.5·10.507Bet9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange10·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 BresBet9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00William Hill9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Star Sports17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50
7	Zirconic J: Harry Davies · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 3 2yo · F · chOnly runner	—	9-02	—	—	—	17.0	14/1·15.71	16·16.00 Matchbook · +2% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Matchbook16·16.00Betfair Exchange15.5·15.50 Bet36514/1·15.00Smarkets14.5·14.50SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 BresBet11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00
6	Woollahra J: George Wood · T: Jack Morland · draw 4 · combo 2/5 (40%) 2yo · F · bOnly runner	—	9-02	—	—	—	15.0	9/1·10.27	8/1·9.00 BetMGM · -12% vs fair All 27 books ▾ BetMGM8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00 BetWright15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Bet36515/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50William Hill15/2·8.50 Betfair Exchange8.4·8.40Matchbook8.2·8.20Smarkets8.2·8.20SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00
2	Give Me A Bow J: Paddy Bradley · T: William Stone · draw 6 2yo · F · chOnly runner	6	9-02	—	—	—	14.0	100/1·97.89	100/1·101.00 7Bet · +3% vs fair All 27 books ▾ 7Bet100/1·101.00 BetWright100/1·101.00 BresBet100/1·101.00 Dragon Bet100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00Matchbook85·85.00Bet Victor80/1·81.00 Bet36580/1·81.00 BetTom80/1·81.00 Betano80/1·81.00 Boyle Sports80/1·81.00 Coral80/1·81.00 Ladbrokes80/1·81.00 LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 Quinn Bet80/1·81.00 Unibet80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.00William Hill80/1·81.00Smarkets75·75.00SmarketsSBK70/1·71.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 Betfair Exchange44·44.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–28 bookmakers per horse with the 21% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Racing Welfare Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)?

The Racing Welfare Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) is off at 14:00 on 21 August 2026 at Newmarket (July) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:00 Newmarket (July)?

7f, Class 3, Flat, 7 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:00 Newmarket (July)?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:00 Newmarket (July)?

The AI top-rated runner is Beguiled (score 32.0, best price 1.73). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:00 Newmarket (July)?

The market favourite is Beguiled at a best price of 1.73.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org