15:45 Newmarket (July)

Racing TV Handicap Stakes

1m2f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £5,154 · Friday, 21 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 5-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Port Darwin

No. 5 · score 49.3 · +3.0 clear of next best · best 11/4·3.65

Best value vs consensus

Liberate

7/1·8.00 Bet365 · +6% vs fair (consensus 7.55)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 26 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Port Darwin

Callum Shepherd · Charlie Johnston · 3yo

Top-rated of 5

score 49.3 · +3.0 clear of next best (46.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
16d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
58average
Last 6: 7-6-1-5-5-1
Ratings50% weight
41below average
OR 62
Trainer20% weight
35below average
Charlie Johnston: 5/35 winners last 14d (14%)

MarketBest price 3.65 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 5.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(1)
4Miss Guinevere
Mid-division(2)
2Fanciulla Del West 5Port Darwin
Hold-up / closers(1)
1Liberate
Unknown(1)
3Emma's Letter

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newmarket (July) 1m2f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.30).

Low (1–2)

IV 0.91

Mid (3–4)

IV 1.30

High (5–5)

IV 0.82

Today: Fanciulla Del West (draw 4) and Miss Guinevere (draw 3) get the bias; Port Darwin (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 59 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	Port DarwinPick J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 5 · combo 2/11 (18%) 3yo · G · chD	761551	9-01	62	—	—	49.3	11/4·3.78	3.65·3.65 Matchbook · -3% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook3.65·3.65Smarkets3.55·3.55SmarketsSBK5/2·3.50 Betfair Exchange3.45·3.45 Paddy Power9/4·3.25 7Bet9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25 William Hill9/4·3.25Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00BetMGM2/1·3.00 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00
2	Fanciulla Del West J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker · draw 4 · combo 4/34 (12%) 3yo · F · b	43220	9-09	70	—	—	46.3	7/2·4.65	3/1·4.00 7Bet · -14% vs fair All 28 books ▾ 7Bet3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00 BetMGM3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 BresBet3/1·4.00 Coral3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00William Hill3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00Paddy Power3/1·4.00Smarkets3.85·3.85SmarketsSBK11/4·3.75Matchbook3.75·3.75Betfair Exchange3.35·3.35
4	Miss Guinevere J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes · draw 3 · combo 6/51 (12%) 3yo · F · bhClass drop	954	9-03	64	—	—	46.0	7/1·8.13	8.2·8.20 Matchbook All 28 books ▾ Matchbook8.2·8.20BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Midnite6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 7Bet6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00William Hill6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 BetMGM11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Betfair Exchange5.5·5.50Smarkets3.95·3.95SmarketsSBK11/4·3.75
3	Emma's Letter J: Billy Loughnane · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 1 · combo 2/7 (29%) 3yo · F · bbDGoing 1/2Only runner	43913	9-07	68	—	—	45.9	11/4·3.78	3.55·3.55 Matchbook · -6% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook3.55·3.55Bet3655/2·3.50 Betfair Exchange3.4·3.40 7Bet9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 Midnite9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 SmarketsSBK9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25 William Hill9/4·3.25Smarkets3.25·3.25BetMGM2/1·3.00 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Paddy Power2/1·3.00
1	Liberate J: George Wood · T: Jim & Suzi Best · draw 2 4yo · F · bOnly runner	090559	9-11	65	—	—	39.2	13/2·7.55	7/1·8.00 Bet365 · +6% vs fair All 26 books ▾ Bet3657/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00Matchbook7·7.00Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 7Bet5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 BresBet5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 26–28 bookmakers per horse with the 16% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Racing TV Handicap Stakes?

The Racing TV Handicap Stakes is off at 15:45 on 21 August 2026 at Newmarket (July) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:45 Newmarket (July)?

1m2f, Class 5, Flat, 5 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:45 Newmarket (July)?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:45 Newmarket (July)?

The AI top-rated runner is Port Darwin (score 49.3, best price 3.65). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:45 Newmarket (July)?

The market favourite is Emma's Letter at a best price of 3.55. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Port Darwin.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org