14:05 Carlisle

Nxt Big Thing Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 7 runners · £5,400 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd

1st
Diamond New Bay (IRE)
Sam James·K. R. Burke
11/4·3.75
SP
2nd
Guadalevin (IRE)AI top pick · 59.1
Paddy Bradley·Charlie Fellowes·beaten .75 lengths
6/5F·2.20
SP
3rd
Ma Blushin Rosie (IRE)
Barry McHugh·Adrian Keatley·beaten 0.05 lengths
100/30·4.33
SP

Race time

1m 16.11s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Diamond New Bay (IRE))

“Set the pace early - lost and regained advantage after 2f - driven on approaching 2f out - contested from either flank inside final furlong then found more to prevail”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.20 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Why the model rates this top

Guadalevin

Paddy Bradley · Charlie Fellowes · 2yo

Top-rated of 7

score 59.1 · +27.6 clear of next best (31.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
27d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
63average
Charlie Fellowes: 3/12 winners last 14d (25%)
Ratings50% weight
56average
OR 84 — highest combined rating in the field
Form20% weight
43below average
Last 6: 3-2-4-6

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Carlisle 6f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)

IV 0.99

Mid (4–5)

IV 1.10

High (6–7)

IV 0.91

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 99 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	2	Diamond New Bay J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke · draw 5 2yo · F · ch	4	9-02	—	—	—	29.5	11/4·3.75 SP
2	3	Guadalevin J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes · draw 6 2yo · F · b	3246	9-02	84	—	—	59.1	6/5F·2.20 SP
3	4	Ma Blushin Rosie J: Barry McHugh · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 4 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	31.5	100/30·4.33 SP
4	7	Sayidah Bahra J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 2 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	17.5	12/1·13.00 SP
5	6	Sara's Silver Girl J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 1 2yo · F · gr	54	9-02	—	—	—	22.5	40/1·41.00 SP
6	1	Angelic Melody J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho · draw 3 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	17.5	22/1·23.00 SP
7	5	Oh So Slow Sloth J: David Allan · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 7 2yo · F · bh	65	9-02	—	—	—	12.3	25/1·26.00 SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:05 Carlisle on 19 August 2026?

Diamond New Bay (IRE) won the 14:05 Carlisle at SP 3.75. Ridden by Sam James. Trained by K. R. Burke.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:05 Carlisle?

No — the AI top pick (Guadalevin) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 14:05 Carlisle?

Top finishers: 1. Diamond New Bay (IRE) (3.75), 2. Guadalevin (IRE) (2.20), 3. Ma Blushin Rosie (IRE) (4.33).

What was the winning time for the 14:05 Carlisle?

The winning time was 1m 16.11s.

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