14:05 Carlisle

Off in 10m

Nxt Big Thing Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 7 runners · £5,400 · Wednesday, 19 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 7-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Guadalevin

No. 3 · score 59.1 · +27.6 clear of next best · best 5/6·1.87

Best value vs consensus

Oh So Slow Sloth

34·34.00 Betfair Exchange · +12% vs fair (consensus 30.27)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way29.5/100 rating

Diamond New Bay

7.20Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Guadalevin

Paddy Bradley · Charlie Fellowes · 2yo

Top-rated of 7

score 59.1 · +27.6 clear of next best (31.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
27d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
63average
Charlie Fellowes: 3/12 winners last 14d (25%)
Ratings50% weight
56average
OR 84 — highest combined rating in the field
Form20% weight
43below average
Last 6: 3-2-4-6

MarketBest price 1.87 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(1)
2Diamond New Bay
Mid-division(1)
6Sara's Silver Girl
Hold-up / closers(1)
3Guadalevin
Unknown(4)
1Angelic Melody 4Ma Blushin Rosie 5Oh So Slow Sloth 7Sayidah Bahra

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Carlisle 6f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)

IV 0.99

Mid (4–5)

IV 1.10

High (6–7)

IV 0.91

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 99 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	GuadalevinPick J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes · draw 6 · combo 6/50 (12%) 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly runner	3246	9-02	84	—	—	59.1	10/11·1.94	1.87·1.87 Matchbook · -4% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook1.87·1.87Betfair Exchange1.85·1.85Smarkets1.85·1.85SmarketsSBK4/5·1.80 Bet3658/11·1.73 Unibet8/11·1.73 William Hill8/11·1.73 Coral8/11·1.73 Ladbrokes8/11·1.73 SportingIndex8/11·1.73 Spreadex8/11·1.73Virgin Bet8/11·1.73LiveScore Bet8/11·1.73 Boyle Sports4/6·1.67 10 Bet4/6·1.67 7Bet4/6·1.67 BresBet4/6·1.67 Dragon Bet4/6·1.67 Bet Victor4/6·1.67 BetMGM4/6·1.67 Star Sports4/6·1.67Betfair Sportsbook4/6·1.67Paddy Power4/6·1.67 Midnite4/6·1.67 talkSPORT BET4/6·1.67 BetTom4/6·1.67 BetWright4/6·1.67 Betano4/6·1.67 Betfred4/6·1.67
4	Ma Blushin Rosie J: Barry McHugh · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 4 2yo · F · bOnly runner	—	9-02	—	—	—	31.5	3/1·4.07	4.4·4.40 Betfair Exchange · +8% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange4.4·4.40Smarkets4.3·4.30Matchbook4.3·4.30SmarketsSBK3/1·4.00 Paddy Power11/4·3.75 BetMGM11/4·3.75 10 Bet11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 Bet Victor5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50 BetTom5/2·3.50 Dragon Bet5/2·3.50 talkSPORT BET5/2·3.50 7Bet5/2·3.50 Betano5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 BresBet5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 Midnite5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50William Hill9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports15/8·2.88
2	Diamond New Bay J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke · draw 5 · combo 11/59 (19%) 2yo · F · chClass dropOnly runner	4	9-02	—	—	—	29.5	13/2·7.57	7.2·7.20 Matchbook · -5% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Matchbook7.2·7.20Smarkets7·7.00Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80 BetTom11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 talkSPORT BET11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 10 Bet11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Unibet5/1·6.00 BresBet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00
6	Sara's Silver Girl J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 1 · combo 7/74 (9%) 2yo · F · gr	54	9-02	—	—	—	22.5	50/1·47.73	50·50.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Matchbook50·50.00Smarkets48·48.00Betfair Exchange46·46.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 talkSPORT BET40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Spreadex40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 7Bet35/1·36.00Betfair Sportsbook35/1·36.00Unibet33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 BresBet33/1·34.00
1	Angelic Melody J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho · draw 3 · combo 6/66 (9%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	17.5	50/1·47.73	48·48.00 Matchbook All 29 books ▾ Matchbook48·48.00Betfair Exchange48·48.00Smarkets48·48.00Midnite40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 talkSPORT BET40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook35/1·36.007Bet35/1·36.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 BresBet33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00
7	Sayidah Bahra J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 2 · combo 4/70 (6%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	17.5	28/1·30.27	30·30.00 Matchbook All 29 books ▾ Matchbook30·30.00Smarkets29·29.00Betfair Exchange28·28.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00talkSPORT BET25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 BresBet25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Unibet22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00
5	Oh So Slow Sloth J: David Allan · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 7 2yo · F · bhOnly runner	65	9-02	—	—	—	12.3	28/1·30.27	34·34.00 Betfair Exchange · +12% vs fair All 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange34·34.00Matchbook34·34.00Smarkets34·34.00SmarketsSBK30/1·31.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00 talkSPORT BET25/1·26.00 BresBet22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Midnite22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Paddy Power20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29–30 bookmakers per horse with the 16% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Nxt Big Thing Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)?

The Nxt Big Thing Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) is off at 14:05 on 19 August 2026 at Carlisle (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:05 Carlisle?

6f, Class 4, Flat, 7 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:05 Carlisle?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:05 Carlisle?

The AI top-rated runner is Guadalevin (score 59.1, best price 1.87). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:05 Carlisle?

The market favourite is Guadalevin at a best price of 1.87.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org