16:45 York

Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race)

5f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Soft · 12 runners · £56,710 · Saturday, 22 August 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (12 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Dance A Jig

No. 2 · score 64.7 · +1.1 clear of next best · best 9/1·10.50

Best value vs consensus

Hickory Lad

14.5·14.50 Matchbook · +7% vs fair (consensus 13.52)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way64.7/100 rating

Dance A Jig

10.50Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: El FloriditaDiffers from our pick

El Floridita arrives here on a progressive profile that the clock has consistently backed up, and despite sitting 3 lb below the top-rated Adonius on our assessment, the direction of travel offers genuine encouragement that the gap can be bridged on this good-to-soft ground at York over five furlongs. Adonius heads the field on ratings and cannot be dismissed, while Hickory Lad and Dance A Jig, both rated 102, represent further threats in what shapes as a competitive Class 1 sprint. The selection is taken to reward each-way faith, though this is not a race to be dogmatic about, and El Floridita is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Dance A Jig

Rossa Ryan · Ralph Beckett · 2yo

Top-rated of 12

score 64.7 · +1.1 clear of next best (63.6)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
15d since last run (race-fit window)
Ratings50% weight
64average
OR 96
Form20% weight
63average
Last 6: 2-2-0-1
Trainer20% weight
50average
Ralph Beckett: 6/30 winners last 14d (20%)

MarketBest price 10.50 (Matchbook) · 5th in the market of 12.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 4 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Front-runners(4)
3Dorigo 7Hickory Lad 8Jaan Ki Tukri 11Roots In Touche
Prominent(5)
4Dubai Champion 5El Floridita 6Hanney Boy 9Sale Shark 12Silesia
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
10Undercover Affair
Unknown(2)
1Adonius 2Dance A Jig

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — York 5f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.37).

Low (1–4)

IV 1.37

Mid (5–8)

IV 0.90

High (9–12)

IV 0.69

Today: Hickory Lad (draw 2) and Dorigo (draw 1) get the bias; Dance A Jig (draw 11) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 137 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Dance A JigPick J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 11 · combo 14/84 (17%) 2yo · C · bDOnly pairing	2201	9-02	96	—	—	64.7	10/1·11.06	10.5·10.50 Matchbook · -5% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook10.5·10.50Betfair Exchange10.5·10.50 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00Smarkets10·10.00William Hill17/2·9.50 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00 Betfred8/1·9.00 BresBet8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Bet3657/1·8.00
8	Jaan Ki Tukri J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Clive Cox · draw 6 2yo · C · bp1lb below win markOnly pairing	322910	9-02	94	—	—	63.6	14/1·15.98	14·14.00 Betfair Exchange · -12% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange14·14.00Matchbook14·14.00Smarkets13.5·13.507Bet12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 BresBet12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Midnite11/1·12.00
1	Adonius J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 8 · combo 1/32 (3%) 2yo · G · chOnly rideOnly runner	1112	9-02	101	—	—	61.9	3/1·4.00	3.3·3.30 Betfair Exchange · -17% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange3.3·3.30Matchbook3.3·3.307Bet9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 Bet3659/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 BetWright9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 Betfred9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25 BresBet9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 William Hill9/4·3.25Smarkets3.25·3.25BetTom85/40·3.13 Unibet85/40·3.13 LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00 Midnite2/1·3.00Virgin Bet2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Paddy Power2/1·3.00 SmarketsSBK2/1·3.00
7	Hickory Lad J: Sam James · T: Phillip Makin · draw 2 · combo 2/21 (10%) 2yo · C · bOnly runner	212138	9-02	99	—	—	60.6	12/1·13.52	14.5·14.50 Matchbook · +7% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50Smarkets13.5·13.50SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 William Hill11/1·12.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 BresBet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00
4	Dubai Champion J: Ryan Moore · T: Ben Haslam · draw 5 2yo · C · bDOnly runner	4312	9-02	87	—	—	59.5	13/2·7.38	7.2·7.20 Betfair Exchange · -2% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20Matchbook7.2·7.20Smarkets7·7.00Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 7Bet5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 BresBet5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Bet3659/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50William Hill9/2·5.50
5	El Floridita J: Tom Marquand · T: Nigel Tinkler · draw 9 2yo · C · bDOnly runner	5125	9-02	98	—	—	58.9	12/1·13.52	18·18.00 Matchbook · +33% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00Smarkets18·18.00Betfair Exchange17.5·17.50 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 BresBet10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00
11	Roots In Touche J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 12 · combo 9/60 (15%) 2yo · F · chOn last winning markDOnly ride	241	8-11	77	—	—	57.8	50/1·50.40	90·90.00 Matchbook · +79% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook90·90.00Smarkets85·85.00SmarketsSBK66/1·67.00 Betfair Exchange60·60.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 BresBet40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00
6	Hanney Boy J: Liam Keniry · T: Miss Evanna McCutcheon · draw 10 2yo · C · bpFT POn last winning markDOnly rideOnly runner	22331	9-02	95	—	—	55.5	18/1·18.44	30·30.00 Matchbook · +63% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Matchbook30·30.00Smarkets27·27.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange25·25.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 BresBet14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00
3	Dorigo J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 1 · combo 4/64 (6%) 2yo · C · b	272	9-02	89	—	—	53.1	9/1·9.83	9.2·9.20 Smarkets · -6% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Smarkets9.2·9.20Bet3658/1·9.00Matchbook8.8·8.80Betfair Exchange8.6·8.60 BetMGM15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Paddy Power15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 BetTom7/1·8.00 William Hill7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00Midnite7/1·8.00 7Bet7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 BresBet7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 Betano11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50
9	Sale Shark J: Oisin Murphy · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 3 · combo 7/41 (17%) 2yo · C · chDOnly pairing	1554	9-02	94	—	—	52.9	9/1·9.83	8.8·8.80 Smarkets · -10% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Smarkets8.8·8.80Matchbook8.6·8.60Betfair Exchange8.6·8.60 William Hill15/2·8.50 7Bet7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 BresBet7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Paddy Power7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Bet36513/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50Midnite13/2·7.50
10	Undercover Affair J: Saffie Osborne · T: David Evans · draw 7 · combo 1/10 (10%) 2yo · G · grDOnly pairing	423185	9-02	81	—	—	52.6	66/1·62.69	80·80.00 Matchbook · +28% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook80·80.00Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00Smarkets65·65.00SmarketsSBK60/1·61.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 BresBet50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00William Hill50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Betfair Exchange44·44.00
12	Silesia J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 4 · combo 4/29 (14%) 2yo · F · ch	3232	8-11	80	—	—	51.3	50/1·50.40	75·75.00 Matchbook · +49% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook75·75.00Smarkets75·75.00SmarketsSBK66/1·67.00 Betfair Exchange60·60.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 BresBet40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–28 bookmakers per horse with the 23% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race)?

The Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) is off at 16:45 on 22 August 2026 at York (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:45 York?

5f, Class 1, Flat, 12 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:45 York?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:45 York?

The AI top-rated runner is Dance A Jig (score 64.7, best price 10.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:45 York?

The market favourite is Adonius at a best price of 3.30. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Dance A Jig.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org