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Nags Head Cutting British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 7 runners · £5,669 · Saturday, 22 August 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 3 · score 27.0 · +1.8 clear of next best · best 3/1·3.90
Best value vs consensus
14·14.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair (consensus 13.37)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way24.0/100 rating
Sky Symphony
14.00Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

One For Bruce

Robert Havlin · James Tate · 2yo

Top-rated of 7
score 27.0 · +1.8 clear of next best (25.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    60average
    James Tate: 4/17 winners last 14d (24%)
  • Form20% weight
    50average
    Last 6: first run
  • Freshness10% weight
    50average
    no recent-run data
  • Ratings50% weight
    0weak
    no Racing Post ratings on file
MarketBest price 3.90 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 7.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newmarket (July) 6f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.24).

Low (1–3)
IV 0.95
Mid (4–5)
IV 0.80
High (6–7)
IV 1.24

Today: Sky Symphony (draw 7) and Scenic Blue (draw 6) get the bias; Silent Sadhu (draw 5) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 92 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
3
J: Robert Havlin · T: James Tate · draw 2
2yo · C · bOnly pairing
27.03/1·3.953.9·3.90
Matchbook
All 28 books ▾
5
J: Paddy Bradley · T: J. R. Jenkins · draw 5
2yo · C · chOnly runner
68
25.211/1·11.5515/1·16.00
SmarketsSBK · +39% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
6
2yo · C · bOnly runner
24.012/1·13.3714·14.00
Matchbook · +5% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
4
J: Stevie Donohoe · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 6 · combo 1/24 (4%)
2yo · C · chOnly runner
23.533/1·35.2575·75.00
Matchbook · +113% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
1
J: David Probert · T: Jack Jones · draw 3
2yo · G · bOnly runner
21.514/1·14.5914·14.00
Matchbook · -4% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
2
J: George Wood · T: Richard Spencer · draw 4 · combo 7/44 (16%)
2yo · C · b
18.09/4·3.272.9·2.90
Smarkets · -11% vs fair
All 28 books ▾
7
2yo · C · bClass dropOnly pairing
68
15.79/2·5.474.6·4.60
Smarkets · -16% vs fair
All 28 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 22% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Nags Head Cutting British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)?

The Nags Head Cutting British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) is off at 13:34 on 22 August 2026 at Newmarket (July) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 13:34 Newmarket (July)?

6f, Class 4, Flat, 7 runners declared.

What is the going for the 13:34 Newmarket (July)?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 13:34 Newmarket (July)?

The AI top-rated runner is One For Bruce (score 27.0, best price 3.90). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 13:34 Newmarket (July)?

The market favourite is Great Balls O'Fire at a best price of 2.90. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — One For Bruce.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org