14:09 Newmarket (July)

Twyford Down Cutting Handicap Stakes

6f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 13 runners · £6,442 · Saturday, 22 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (13 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Spring Bloom

No. 12 · score 62.8 · +8.4 clear of next best · best 6/1·7.00

Best value vs consensus

Zoulu Chief

30·30.00 Matchbook · +4% vs fair (consensus 28.95)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way62.8/100 rating

Spring Bloom

7.00Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: PiluDiffers from our pick

Pilu holds a narrow edge at the head of the ratings in this competitive six-furlong Class 4 at Newmarket's July course, and the good-to-firm ground should pose no problems, though the strength of the chasing pack makes this far from straightforward. Sword, just three points adrift on our figures, represents the most pressing threat alongside Photosynthesis and Expert Agent, who between them could easily overturn a slim advantage on the day. The wide field of thirteen adds an element of uncertainty, and backers should be aware this is not a race to go in heavily. That said, on the balance of what we know, Pilu is the call.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Spring Bloom

David Probert · John Butler · 9yo

Top-rated of 13

score 62.8 · +8.4 clear of next best (54.4)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
15d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
81very strong
Last 6: 2-3-2-1-1-3
Trainer20% weight
60average
John Butler: 6/25 winners last 14d (24%)
Ratings50% weight
49below average
OR 74

MarketBest price 7.00 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
3Pilu
Prominent(4)
6Back To Me 8Sea Cookie 11Fifty Nifty 12Spring Bloom
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
2Photosynthesis 5Archduke Ferdinand
Unknown(6)
1Zoulu Chief 4Sword 7Rajaking 9Expert Agent 10Juan Les Pins 13Royal Accord

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newmarket (July) 6f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.24).

Low (1–5)

IV 0.95

Mid (6–9)

IV 0.80

High (10–13)

IV 1.24

Today: Juan Les Pins (draw 13) and Archduke Ferdinand (draw 11) get the bias; Spring Bloom (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 92 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
12	Spring BloomPick J: David Probert · T: John Butler · draw 7 9yo · G · chC&DGoing 2/4Only pairing	232113	9-03	74	—	—	62.8	15/2·8.27	7·7.00 Matchbook · -15% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook7·7.00Smarkets6.8·6.80Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50 Unibet5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 BresBet5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00
7	Rajaking J: Dylan Hogan · T: T J Kent · draw 6 4yo · G · btDGoing 1/3Only runner	76431	9-10	81	—	—	54.4	15/2·8.27	7.4·7.40 Matchbook · -10% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook7.4·7.40Smarkets7.2·7.20SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Betfair Exchange7·7.00 Midnite11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 BresBet11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Unibet5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 Bet3659/2·5.50
3	Pilu J: Joe Leavy · T: Roger Teal · draw 1 3yo · G · bClass dropOnly pairing	46258	9-12	86	—	—	53.7	7/2·4.69	3.85·3.85 Betfair Exchange · -18% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange3.85·3.85Matchbook3.85·3.85Smarkets3.8·3.80SmarketsSBK13/5·3.60 Midnite5/2·3.50 Betano5/2·3.50 Boyle Sports5/2·3.50 Bet Victor5/2·3.50 7Bet5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Paddy Power5/2·3.50 BetMGM12/5·3.40 BetWright12/5·3.40 BresBet12/5·3.40 Dragon Bet12/5·3.40 Betfred9/4·3.25 Coral9/4·3.25 LiveScore Bet9/4·3.25 BetTom9/4·3.25 Ladbrokes9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Unibet9/4·3.25 Spreadex9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 SportingIndex9/4·3.25Virgin Bet9/4·3.25William Hill2/1·3.00
8	Sea Cookie J: Neil Callan · T: Tom Clover · draw 8 · combo 4/9 (44%) 3yo · G · btFT TC&DGoing 2/4	21102	9-09	83	—	—	53.6	20/1·20.68	29·29.00 Matchbook · +40% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook29·29.00Smarkets27·27.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange25·25.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 BresBet14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Paddy Power14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00
9	Expert Agent J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Stuart Williams · draw 4 6yo · G · b	121646	9-08	79	—	—	50.7	22/1·23.44	18.5·18.50 Smarkets · -21% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Smarkets18.5·18.50Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50Matchbook18.5·18.50Bet36516/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 BresBet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00
11	Fifty Nifty J: George Wood · T: Martin Dunne · draw 9 5yo · G · b/esC&DGoing 1/3Only pairing	785013	9-04	75	—	—	48.4	14/1·15.16	15.5·15.50 Matchbook · +2% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook15.5·15.50Betfair Exchange15·15.00Smarkets14.5·14.50SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 BresBet10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00
4	Sword J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Stuart Williams · draw 2 5yo · G · btClass drop	83658	9-12	83	—	—	47.5	11/1·11.72	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -2% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Betfair Exchange11·11.00Smarkets10·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 Unibet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 7Bet15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00
10	Juan Les Pins J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: Michael Appleby · draw 13 · combo 2/12 (17%) 9yo · G · bOnly pairing	213290	9-06	77	—	—	47.3	28/1·28.95	22/1·23.00 Bet365 · -21% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Bet36522/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00Matchbook22·22.00Coral20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 BresBet20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Smarkets18.5·18.50SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50
5	Archduke Ferdinand J: Dale Swift · T: Seb Spencer · draw 11 · combo 2/34 (6%) 7yo · G · bpDGoing 1/4Only rideOnly runner	830412	9-11	82	—	—	46.5	9/1·10.34	9.6·9.60 Matchbook · -7% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook9.6·9.60Smarkets9.6·9.60Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Bet36513/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 BresBet13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00
6	Back To Me J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Patrick Chamings · draw 3 · combo 1/9 (11%) 3yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	11620	9-10	84	—	—	43.5	22/1·23.44	48·48.00 Matchbook · +105% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook48·48.00SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00Smarkets34·34.00Betfair Exchange28·28.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 BresBet16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00
2	Photosynthesis J: Robert Havlin · T: Peter Chapple-Hyam · draw 5 5yo · G · bOnly pairing	07436	9-13	84	—	—	43.2	12/1·13.10	16.5·16.50 Betfair Exchange · +26% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange16.5·16.50 SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00Smarkets16·16.00Matchbook14.5·14.50Bet36511/1·12.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Bet Victor17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Coral17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50 BetTom8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 BresBet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Paddy Power15/2·8.50
1	Zoulu Chief J: George Bass · T: Heather Main · draw 10 5yo · G · chOnly runner	21309	10-02	87	—	—	42.0	28/1·28.95	30·30.00 Matchbook · +4% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook30·30.00Smarkets28·28.00Betfair Exchange28·28.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Bet36522/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 BresBet20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Paddy Power18/1·19.00
13	Royal Accord J: Olivia Haines(7) · T: Peter Chapple-Hyam · draw 12 4yo · G · bOnly pairing	17209	8-12	69	—	—	38.3	50/1·56.52	110·110.00 Matchbook · +95% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook110·110.00Smarkets95·95.00SmarketsSBK90/1·91.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 BresBet40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00Betfair Exchange18·18.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 38% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Twyford Down Cutting Handicap Stakes?

The Twyford Down Cutting Handicap Stakes is off at 14:09 on 22 August 2026 at Newmarket (July) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:09 Newmarket (July)?

6f, Class 4, Flat, 13 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:09 Newmarket (July)?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:09 Newmarket (July)?

The AI top-rated runner is Spring Bloom (score 62.8, best price 7.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:09 Newmarket (July)?

The market favourite is Pilu at a best price of 3.85. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Spring Bloom.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org