17:04 Newmarket (July)

Polhill Cutting Handicap Stakes

5f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 7 runners · £6,442 · Saturday, 22 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 7-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Tiva

No. 1 · score 56.8 · +1.2 clear of next best · best 9/4·3.30

Best value vs consensus

Diomed Duke

3.7·3.70 Betfair Exchange · +2% vs fair (consensus 3.63)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way47.4/100 rating

Fantasy Master

11.00Bet Victor

Place portion settles at 3.50 · 1/4 odds · 2 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: MaelstromDiffers from our pick

Maelstrom heads the field narrowly on these ratings, though the closeness of the pack behind — Tiva, Lara Antipova and Diomed Duke all within five pounds — means the race is genuinely open, and on a sharp five furlongs at Newmarket's July course any one of that trio could overturn the slim advantage on the day. The good-to-firm ground should suit speedier types throughout, and Maelstrom will need to be at his best to repel those dangers. Our selection is Maelstrom.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Tiva

Silvestre De Sousa · David O'Meara · 4yo

Top-rated of 7

score 56.8 · +1.2 clear of next best (55.6)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
15d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
60average
Last 6: 2-5-4-6-3-1
Ratings50% weight
55average
OR 82 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
38below average
David O'Meara: 8/52 winners last 14d (15%)

MarketBest price 3.30 (Matchbook) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(2)
4Diomed Duke 6Aspull
Mid-division(2)
1Tiva 7Beauzon
Hold-up / closers(2)
2Maelstrom 3Lara Antipova
Unknown(1)
5Fantasy Master

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Newmarket (July) 5f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.24).

Low (1–3)

IV 0.95

Mid (4–5)

IV 0.80

High (6–7)

IV 1.24

Today: Lara Antipova (draw 6) and Maelstrom (draw 7) get the bias; Tiva (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 92 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
1	TivaPick J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: David O'Meara · draw 4 4yo · F · chtvDOnly pairing	254631	10-02	82	—	—	56.8	11/4·3.63	3.3·3.30 Matchbook · -9% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook3.3·3.30Betfair Exchange3.25·3.25Virgin Bet2/1·3.00LiveScore Bet2/1·3.00 7Bet2/1·3.00 Bet Victor2/1·3.00 Bet3652/1·3.00 BetMGM2/1·3.00 BetTom2/1·3.00 BetWright2/1·3.00 Betano2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00 Boyle Sports2/1·3.00 BresBet2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 Star Sports2/1·3.00 Midnite2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Spreadex2/1·3.00 William Hill2/1·3.00Betfair Sportsbook2/1·3.00Paddy Power2/1·3.00 Unibet2/1·3.00Smarkets2.98·2.98SmarketsSBK15/8·2.88
3	Lara Antipova J: Neil Callan · T: Tom Clover · draw 6 · combo 4/9 (44%) 3yo · F · bpFT P	22142	9-11	79	—	—	55.6	10/3·4.23	4.3·4.30 Matchbook · +2% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook4.3·4.30Betfair Exchange4.1·4.10 Betano11/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 Paddy Power11/4·3.75Smarkets3.7·3.70SmarketsSBK13/5·3.60 Boyle Sports5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 7Bet5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50 BetMGM5/2·3.50 BetTom5/2·3.50 BetWright5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 BresBet5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50 Dragon Bet5/2·3.50 Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 Midnite5/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 SportingIndex5/2·3.50 Spreadex5/2·3.50 William Hill5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50Unibet5/2·3.50
4	Diomed Duke J: Olivia Haines(7) · T: Stuart Williams · draw 3 · combo 1/10 (10%) 4yo · G · btDGoing 1/4Only pairing	35521	9-10	76	—	—	54.0	11/4·3.63	3.7·3.70 Betfair Exchange · +2% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange3.7·3.70Matchbook3.4·3.40Bet3659/4·3.25 7Bet2/1·3.00 Bet Victor2/1·3.00 Star Sports2/1·3.00 BetMGM2/1·3.00 BetWright2/1·3.00 Betano2/1·3.00 Betfred2/1·3.00 BresBet2/1·3.00 Coral2/1·3.00 Dragon Bet2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00 Midnite2/1·3.00 Quinn Bet2/1·3.00 SportingIndex2/1·3.00 Spreadex2/1·3.00 William Hill2/1·3.00 Unibet2/1·3.00Smarkets2.98·2.98Virgin Bet15/8·2.88LiveScore Bet15/8·2.88 BetTom15/8·2.88 Boyle Sports15/8·2.88Betfair Sportsbook15/8·2.88Paddy Power15/8·2.88 SmarketsSBK15/8·2.88
5	Fantasy Master J: Robert Havlin · T: Robert Cowell · draw 1 8yo · G · chpOnly runner	55138	9-04	70	—	—	47.4	11/1·12.09	10/1·11.00 Bet Victor · -9% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00Smarkets10.5·10.50Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Spreadex9/1·10.00 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 BresBet9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Unibet9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Bet36517/2·9.50Matchbook7.2·7.20Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60
2	Maelstrom J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Stuart Williams · draw 7 4yo · G · grt	73085	9-12	78	—	—	42.3	9/1·10.28	17/2·9.50 Bet365 · -8% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Bet36517/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 7Bet15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 BresBet15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50Smarkets8.2·8.20Matchbook8·8.00BetTom7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20
7	Beauzon J: Paddy Bradley · T: Ian Williams · draw 2 7yo · G · bOnly runner	116000	8-12	64	—	—	34.3	66/1·61.67	50/1·51.00 7Bet · -17% vs fair All 27 books ▾ 7Bet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 BresBet50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Matchbook29·29.00Betfair Exchange7·7.00
6	Aspull J: Connor Planas · T: Phil McEntee · draw 5 · combo 0/7 (0%) 4yo · G · bOnly runner	90605	8-13	65	—	—	31.6	66/1·61.67	50/1·51.00 Unibet · -17% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Unibet50/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 BresBet50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Matchbook29·29.00Betfair Exchange7·7.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–28 bookmakers per horse with the 21% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Polhill Cutting Handicap Stakes?

The Polhill Cutting Handicap Stakes is off at 17:04 on 22 August 2026 at Newmarket (July) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 17:04 Newmarket (July)?

5f, Class 4, Flat, 7 runners declared.

What is the going for the 17:04 Newmarket (July)?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 17:04 Newmarket (July)?

The AI top-rated runner is Tiva (score 56.8, best price 3.30). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 17:04 Newmarket (July)?

The market favourite is Tiva at a best price of 3.30.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org