14:40 Chester

Virgin Bet Chester Stakes (Listed Race)

1m6½f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Soft · 8 runners · £34,026 · Saturday, 22 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (8 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

By The Book

No. 2 · score 76.4 · +11.2 clear of next best · best 4/1·4.80

Best value vs consensus

Tactician

36·36.00 Smarkets · +20% vs fair (consensus 30.06)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way76.4/100 rating

By The Book

4.80Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: By The BookAgrees with our pick

By The Book arrives here on a progressive profile that justifies siding with him ahead of the top-rated Lazy Griff, who holds a narrowly ahead on ratings but whose ceiling may already be better mapped, whereas By The Book's upward curve suggests there is more to come at this trip on good-to-soft ground at Chester. Lazy Griff and Midak represent the principal dangers, with Duraji also capable of troubling the judge over fourteen furlongs if the conditions suit. The verdict, held with modest confidence, is By The Book.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

By The Book

Billy Loughnane · Charlie Appleby · 5yo

Top-rated of 8

score 76.4 · +11.2 clear of next best (65.2)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100very strong
Charlie Appleby: 11/26 winners last 14d (42%)
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
49d since last run (fresh)
Ratings50% weight
73strong
OR 109 — above field median
Form20% weight
58average
Last 6: 1-3-3-6-2

MarketBest price 4.80 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 8.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
1Lazy Griff
Prominent(2)
7Lady Vivian 8Orchard Keeper
Mid-division(1)
5Midak
Hold-up / closers(0)—
Unknown(4)
2By The Book 3Duraji 4Fantasy World 6Tactician

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Chester 1m6½f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.36).

Low (1–3)

IV 1.36

Mid (4–6)

IV 0.80

High (7–8)

IV 0.79

Today: Lazy Griff (draw 3) and Midak (draw 2) get the bias; By The Book (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 77 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	By The BookPick J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby · draw 7 · combo 9/29 (31%) 5yo · G · bOnly runner	13362	9-08	109	—	—	76.4	10/3·4.34	4.8·4.80 Matchbook · +11% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook4.8·4.80Betfair Exchange4.7·4.70Smarkets4.6·4.60SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Midnite3/1·4.00 Paddy Power3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 William Hill3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 BetMGM11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75 Star Sports11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook11/4·3.757Bet11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75 BresBet11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75 BetTom11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 Bet3655/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50
1	Lazy Griff J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 3 · combo 2/13 (15%) 4yo · C · b1lb below win mark	23317	9-11	112	—	—	65.2	2/1·3.04	2.64·2.64 Smarkets · -13% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Smarkets2.64·2.64Betfred13/8·2.63 Quinn Bet13/8·2.63 Star Sports13/8·2.63 Bet36513/8·2.63 7Bet13/8·2.63 BetMGM13/8·2.63 BetTom13/8·2.63 BetWright13/8·2.63 Boyle Sports13/8·2.63 BresBet13/8·2.63 Coral13/8·2.63 Dragon Bet13/8·2.63 Ladbrokes13/8·2.63 Midnite13/8·2.63 William Hill13/8·2.63Betfair Sportsbook13/8·2.63Paddy Power13/8·2.63 Bet Victor13/8·2.63 Betano13/8·2.63Matchbook2.62·2.62Betfair Exchange2.62·2.62 SmarketsSBK6/4·2.50 SportingIndex6/4·2.50 Spreadex6/4·2.50 LiveScore Bet6/4·2.50Virgin Bet6/4·2.50Unibet11/8·2.38
8	Orchard Keeper J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian · draw 6 · combo 7/30 (23%) 5yo · M · b	32445	9-03	93	—	—	65.1	18/1·19.66	16/1·17.00 SportingIndex · -13% vs fair All 28 books ▾ SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 BresBet16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Matchbook16.5·16.50Betfair Exchange16·16.00 SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00Smarkets16·16.00BetMGM14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Unibet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Betfred12/1·13.00
4	Fantasy World J: Rob Hornby · T: Andrew Balding · draw 5 · combo 5/33 (15%) 4yo · G · bOnly pairing	11531	9-08	103	—	—	64.4	7/1·8.09	8.8·8.80 Betfair Exchange · +9% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80Matchbook8.6·8.60Smarkets8.6·8.60SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 BresBet6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Midnite6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.007Bet6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50
7	Lady Vivian J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 4 · combo 15/87 (17%) 4yo · F · b	72542	9-03	99	—	—	62.6	15/2·8.67	8.6·8.60 Betfair Exchange All 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8.6·8.60Matchbook8.6·8.60Smarkets8.2·8.20Bet3657/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 7Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 BresBet13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00
5	Midak J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Ian Williams · draw 2 4yo · G · chOnly pairing	69447	9-08	102	—	—	52.1	12/1·13.88	15.5·15.50 Matchbook · +12% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook15.5·15.50Betfair Exchange15.5·15.50Smarkets15·15.00SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 BetTom11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 BresBet11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00
3	Duraji J: Marco Ghiani · T: Richard Hughes · draw 8 5yo · H · bOnly pairing	06304	9-08	95	—	—	51.6	20/1·21.97	23·23.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Matchbook23·23.00Bet36520/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00Betfair Exchange21·21.00Smarkets21·21.00BetMGM18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 BresBet18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Star Sports18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Paddy Power18/1·19.00
6	Tactician J: Jason Watson · T: Andrew Balding · draw 1 · combo 4/47 (9%) 5yo · G · gr	12166	9-08	88	—	—	50.1	28/1·30.06	36·36.00 Smarkets · +20% vs fair All 28 books ▾ Smarkets36·36.00LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00William Hill28/1·29.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00Matchbook26·26.00BresBet25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange24·24.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 16% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Virgin Bet Chester Stakes (Listed Race)?

The Virgin Bet Chester Stakes (Listed Race) is off at 14:40 on 22 August 2026 at Chester (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:40 Chester?

1m6½f, Class 1, Flat, 8 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:40 Chester?

Going is reported as Good To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:40 Chester?

The AI top-rated runner is By The Book (score 76.4, best price 4.80). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:40 Chester?

The market favourite is Lazy Griff at a best price of 2.64. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — By The Book.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org